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Barron’s (January 29)

2018/ 01/ 31 by jd in Global News

“Interest rates and volatility have been so low for so long that what was once abnormal is starting to look normal,” leading investment banks to adopt different approaches. Goldman has maintained its trading unit, “which lives or dies on volatility and which sealed Goldman’s reputation as the elite firm on Wall Street,” even though its revenue “has been reduced to crumbs.” In contrast, Morgan Stanley slashed the head count at its trading unit and has seen its market value surpass Goldman’s. But this could prove short-lived. “When trading conditions improve,” revenue from fixed income currency and commodities (FICC) “could bounce back quickly. No one else is as poised as Goldman to profit.”

 

Bloomberg (May 11)

2017/ 05/ 14 by jd in Global News

“It’s not making headlines yet, but wages in Japan are rising the fastest in decades, in a shift that’s poised to divide the nation’s companies — and their stocks — into winners and losers…. Consumer-focused sectors with low salary bills as a percentage of revenue are best positioned. Logistics and some health-care companies will be most negatively impacted,” according to a report from Morgan Stanley.

 

Bloomberg (December 1)

2015/ 12/ 01 by jd in Global News

Not everyone is in line with the consensus view that the yen will weaken to 126 per dollar by the end of 2016. Among the most bullish, Morgan Stanley “expects Japan’s currency to strengthen to 115 against the greenback.” Factors behind this forecast include the historic weakness of the yen, the need for Japanese pension funds to repatriate money, improvement in Japan’s economy and a general overestimation of the BOJ’s commitment to monetary easing.

 

Institutional Investor (April 24)

2014/ 04/ 26 by jd in Global News

To strengthen their balance sheets, large banks (including Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Barclays) have been reducing their commodities businesses, mainly through sales to independent trading companies. With these sales “to smaller players, conflicts of interest remain a potential problem” and nobody’s sure whether new problems will accompany this major shift. Given the skinnier balance sheets of the new players, market liquidity could conceivably suffer. In addition, “concerns abound that the underlying problems that have traditionally beset the commodities markets are simply being pushed onto a new and less tightly regulated set of actors.”

 

Euromoney (July 9)

2013/ 07/ 10 by jd in Global News

“The new Chinese government’s policy drive to deleverage the banking sector has become more apparent, and that deleveraging will continue to unfold in the next six to 12 months. In what Morgan Stanley calls its ‘super-bear scenario’, it estimates that aggressive policy tightening will reduce Chinese GDP growth to an annual rate of 5.5% in the second half of this year.” If the scenario plays out (a one in ten chance according to Morgan Stanley), it “would have major implications for global markets.”

 

Institutional Investor (August Issue)

2012/ 08/ 24 by jd in Global News

“Morgan Stanley and other banks get serious about sustainable investment.” In April, Morgan Stanley launched an Investing with Impact Platform, which will group sustainable investments (currently some 70 different products) around four categories. UBS is pushing its “analysts to integrate sustainability factors into their company and sector coverage” and now requires “all analysts to include a section on ‘sustainable innovation’ in their annual sector outlook reports.” In addition, Royal Bank of Canada seeded an impact investing fund which it may open to investors next year.

 

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