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Reuters (November 1)

2018/ 11/ 02 by jd in Global News

Expect some Brexit volatility for the pound. “With less than five months until the marriage is due to end, the two sides have yet to finalise a divorce settlement and if none is made by the end of March,” the current consensus is that “sterling will fall to $1.20.” The same poll of economists predicted “the pound would bounce to $1.35 if a deal is made.”

 

Reuters (September 24)

2018/ 09/ 25 by jd in Global News

“Hedge funds are betting big against sterling, the most since May last year. And following last week’s Brexit debacle in Salzburg, that bet will probably be even bigger now, closing in on the largest on record.”

 

Reuters (August 29)

2018/ 08/ 30 by jd in Global News

“The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is becoming increasingly feasible in the eyes of investors who are hedging against the risk of the currency tanking if Britain is left isolated from the EU, its largest trading partner.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch has warned that central bank selling of more than 100 billion pounds in reserves “could be a major catalyst for a significant sterling downturn” should the UK leave the EU without a deal.

 

Euromoney (March 24)

2017/ 03/ 26 by jd in Global News

“The UK economy seems at last to be suffering from the erosion of purchasing power by sterling-induced inflation. All of this smacks of stagflation, a constitutional crisis and rising political risk. UK gilts will suffer.”

 

Institutional Investor (June 23)

2016/ 06/ 24 by jd in Global News

“The referendum on U.K. membership in the European Union continues to dominate market risk narratives, with both equity futures and the pound sterling strengthening in early trading, suggestion a degree of confidence among investors that the nation will remain in the EU.”

 

The Economist (May 1)

2015/ 05/ 03 by jd in Global News

Since 2010, foreign creditors “have extended the equivalent of more than $5 billion of 100-year bonds to Mexico in three currencies: dollars, sterling and now euros.” Moreover, Mexico has received exceedingly good terms (4.2%-6.1%) given its “distinctly spotty credit record.” This speaks volumes about the intensity of the global search for yield, but raises the inevitable question “what are the chances of investors, or their grandchildren, getting their money back?”

 

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