Time (December 13)
“Low fertility threatens to undermine South Korea’s economic future by shrinking its workforce and slowing consumption. It also casts a long shadow over national security by reducing the pool of men available to join the military to counter threats from North Korea.” The number of expected babies per woman in South Korea is forecast to fall to 0.72 in 2023 and “will continue to fall through 2025,” when it will likely bottom out at 0.65.
Tags: Economic future, Fertility, Low, National security, North Korea, Shrinking, Slowing consumption, South Korea, Threats, Undermine, Workforce
PEW Research Center (November 19)
U.S. fertility rates “were already at a record low before the pandemic began” and have continued dropping during it, “lending evidence to predictions… that economic uncertainty might trigger a baby bust.” The center’s recent survey shows even broader concerns. “A rising share of U.S. adults who are not already parents say they are unlikely to ever have children, and their reasons range from just not wanting to have kids to concerns about climate change and the environment.”
Tags: Baby bust, Children, Climate change, Economic uncertainty, Fertility, Kids, Pandemic, Parents, Record low, Survey, U.S., Unlikely
The Economist (June 11)
Like Japan, South Korea is also facing a major demographics challenge, especially if they can’t succeed in upping the percentage of working women. “With a fertility rate of around 1.2 babies per woman, South Korea’s labour force is set to shrink dramatically. If the country fails to make use of half its talent pool, stagnation looms. An OECD study estimated that if the labour-force participation rate for men and women was the same by 2030, GDP growth would increase by 0.9 percentage points annually. Since 2010 growth has fallen from 6.5% to 2.6%.”
Tags: Babies, Demographics, Fertility, GDP, Growth, Japan, South Korea, Stagnation, Working women
New York Times (April 6)
“In reality, slower population growth creates enormous possibilities for human flourishing.” Japan may be at the forefront of graying societies, but the nation is hardly alone. Most developed countries are already shrinking. Many developing countries, like China, are soon forecast to contract. This is fueling “dark prophecies” and causing alarm over the future. It shouldn’t. “Population doom of one kind or another is a recurring fad. Like most fads, this one can be safely ignored. Humanity has many legitimate problems to worry about. Falling fertility is not one of them.”
Tags: Alarm, China, Dark prophecies, Developing countries, Doom, Fad, Fertility, Future, Graying, Humanity, Japan, Population growth, Possibilities, Reality
Washington Post (February 9)
“The big demographic trends shaping the world are mysterious and often overlooked.” The dramatic Arab Spring has largely overshadowed one of these. A flight from marriage has caused birth rates to drop precipitously. Over the past three decades, “twenty-two Muslim countries and territories had fertility declines of 50 percent or more. The sharpest drops were in Iran, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Bangladesh, Tunisia, Libya, Albania, Qatar and Kuwait, which all recorded declines of 60 percent or more.” The current youth bulge in many Arab societies will quickly give way to the graying society characteristic of Japan and Europe.
Tags: Arab, Demographic trends, Europe, Fertility, Graying society, Japan, Marriage, Muslim countries, Youth bulge
Euromoney (November issue)
“Asia’s young population has long been the envy of the west, but several of Asia’s most developed economies, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, were among the countries with the lowest fertility rates in the world this year as a result of rising education levels, more women working long hours and people getting married later, among other factors…. This presents many threats, but foremost among them are slowing economic growth and the need to provide income support for more elderly populations.”
“Asia’s young population has long been the envy of the west, but several of Asia’s most developed economies, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, were among the countries with the lowest fertility rates in the world this year as a result of rising education levels, more women working long hours and people getting married later, among other factors…. This presents many threats, but foremost among them are slowing economic growth and the need to provide income support for more elderly populations.”
