Wall Street Journal (January 9, 2014)
“Recent numbers and announcements out of Beijing suggest that one of the biggest global risks for 2014 is a Chinese economic slowdown. Five years after unveiling the most massive economic stimulus program the world has ever seen, the bills are coming due. And while a crash remains unlikely, deleveraging could uncover some nasty surprises in the financial system.”
Tags: Beijing, China, Crash, Deleveraging, Economic stimulus, Financial system, Risk, Slowdown
New York Times (August 5)
“The latest quarterly report on economic growth showed real G.D.P. up only 1.4 percent over the past year, a marked slowdown from year-over-year growth rates posted in 2012. Much of the weakening can be attributed to self-imposed wounds, including the fiscal-cliff showdown at the end of last year and this year’s payroll tax increase and automatic budget cuts, whose effects now appear likely to carry into the second half of the year.” The recovery could stall as the report suggests “Americans do not have the requisite economic security to absorb those imminent blows, let alone other inevitable setbacks, including another possible standoff over the nation’s debt limit.”“The latest quarterly report on economic growth showed real G.D.P. up only 1.4 percent over the past year, a marked slowdown from year-over-year growth rates posted in 2012. Much of the weakening can be attributed to self-imposed wounds, including the fiscal-cliff showdown at the end of last year and this year’s payroll tax increase and automatic budget cuts, whose effects now appear likely to carry into the second half of the year.” The recovery could stall as the report suggests “Americans do not have the requisite economic security to absorb those imminent blows, let alone other inevitable setbacks, including another possible standoff over the nation’s debt limit.”
Tags: Budget cuts, Debt limit, Fiscal cliff, G.D.P., Security, Setbacks, Slowdown, Standoff, Tax increase, U.S.
The Economist (July 27)
“After a decade of surging growth, in which they led a global boom and then helped pull the world economy forwards in the face of the financial crisis, the emerging giants have slowed sharply.” This slowdown in emerging markets “is not the beginning of a bust. But it is a turning-point for the world economy.”
Tags: Boom, Bust, Emerging markets, Financial Crisis, Growth, Slowdown, Turning-point, World economy
Institutional Investor (October 19)
“Thursday saw a palpable sense of relief in global markets that China’s rather gentle slowdown is coming to an end.” There does, however, remain “the problem of finding a sustainable growth model.” China’s past growth was largely based on “heavy direct investment by the state, or by entities that enjoy strong state support.” This growth model is unsustainable. What will come next?
The Economist (July 21)
“In the past decade emerging markets have established themselves as the world’s best sprinters. As serial crises tripped up America and then Europe, China barely broke stride…. Lately, though, the sprinters have started to wheeze.” China, India and Brazil have all recently reported weak performance. Russia is the only BRIC with a resilient economy, but this is vulnerable to oil prices. What does the “Great Slowdown” mean for long-term growth and the world economy? The Economist believes, “no crisis looms, but serious concern is justified.”
“In the past decade emerging markets have established themselves as the world’s best sprinters. As serial crises tripped up America and then Europe, China barely broke stride…. Lately, though, the sprinters have started to wheeze.” China, India and Brazil have all recently reported weak performance. Russia is the only BRIC with a resilient economy, but this is vulnerable to oil prices. What does the “Great Slowdown” mean for long-term growth and the world economy? The Economist believes, “no crisis looms, but serious concern is justified.”
Tags: BRICS, Oil, Russia, Slowdown, World economy
Economist (May 26)
“Despite a recent slowdown, the world’s second-biggest economy is more resilient than its critics think.” China is not dependent on foreign borrowing, enjoys a high saving rate (51% of GDP), has highly liquid banks, and very low central government debt (25% of GDP). “China plainly has enough fiscal space to recapitalise any bank threatened with insolvency. That space also gives the government room to stimulate growth again, should exports to Europe fall off a cliff.”
