Bloomberg (December 1)
Not everyone is in line with the consensus view that the yen will weaken to 126 per dollar by the end of 2016. Among the most bullish, Morgan Stanley “expects Japan’s currency to strengthen to 115 against the greenback.” Factors behind this forecast include the historic weakness of the yen, the need for Japanese pension funds to repatriate money, improvement in Japan’s economy and a general overestimation of the BOJ’s commitment to monetary easing.
Tags: Bullish, Consensus view, Dollar, Economy, Japan, Monetary easing, Morgan Stanley, Pension funds, Yen
Wall Street Journal (November 25)
In the U.S., “the pressure on corporate profits may last longer than expected.” Many have attributed the contraction in corporate profits to temporary trends, namely “the weakness in the commodities sector, which is ravaging profits at energy companies, and the strong dollar, which is putting pressure on multinationals.” Though reassuring, “the problem with those dismissals is that oil may not be done going down, and the dollar may not be done going up.”
Tags: Commodities, Contraction, Corporate profits, Dollar, Energy, Multinationals, Oil, Pressure, Trends, U.S.
Institutional Investor (November 12)
“So far all comments from ECB policymakers have raised dovish expectations for the December meeting, while in the U.S. the Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin tightening. As a result, many analysts now see the macro setup for the dollar versus the euro as a catalyst to retest levels reached in the spring.”
Tags: Analysts, Catalyst, Dollar, Dovish, ECB, euro, Expectations, Fed, Policymakers, Tightening, U.S.
The Economist (August 22)
“A resurgent dollar has hammered commodity prices: many have recently fallen below their levels of a decade ago.” There may be worse to come. “The real curse for producers is over-supply in almost all raw materials. Yet they continue to act as if they are blithely unaware of it. Capital is still pouring into holes in the ground, creating a hangover that may last at least a decade.”
Tags: Capital, Commodities, Dollar, Over-supply, Producers, Raw materials, Resurgent
Financial Times (April 27)
While Japanese companies benefit from currency gains on overseas sales, U.S. companies are feeling the heat. “A surge in the US dollar has already wiped more than $20bn from first quarter sales at the largest US companies, a sum larger than revenues generated by Intel, Caterpillar or Goldman Sachs in the first three months of the year.” The figure could potentially double as Q1 reporting in the U.S. was still near the halfway mark.
Tags: Caterpillar, Currency gains, Dollar, Goldman Sachs, Intel, Japan, Overseas sales, Q1, U.S.
Institutional Investor (March 24)
“A reversal for the dollar and oil have not yet quenched investors’ appetite for euro-denominated risk assets.” In the absence of a market-shaping event, “investors keep flocking to Europe.”
Tags: Dollar, Euro-denominated, Europe, Investors, Oil, Reversal, Risk assets
Wall Street Journal (March 5)
The European Central Bank (ECB) hasn’t even actually started its quantitative easing (QE) activities. Somehow, however, its QE program “is working before it has even begun.” The euro has fallen 20% since last summer and, this week, dropped to $1.10, an eleven year low. How? “As investors came to view QE as inevitable, prices responded, especially the price of the euro. As a result of Mr. Draghi’s open-mouth operations to talk down the euro—coupled with an expectation that interest rates might rise soon in the U.S.—the euro has declined steadily against the dollar and other currencies.” Whether the actual QE program will be able to duplicate this pregame success remains to be seen.
Tags: Currencies, Dollar, Draghi, ECB, euro, Interest rates, Investors, Quantitative easing, U.S.
The Economist (December 20)
“A financial crash in Russia; falling oil prices and a strong dollar; a new gold rush in Silicon Valley and a resurgent American economy; weakness in Germany and Japan; tumbling currencies in emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia; an embattled Democrat in the White House…. Add all this up and 2015 seems likely to be bumpy.”
Tags: Brazil, Currencies, Dollar, Economy, Emerging markets, Financial crash, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Oil prices, Russia, Silicon Valley, U.S., White House
Washington Post (December 16)
“The drama playing out in Russia on Tuesday was not pretty. The ruble’s exchange rate has collapsed by some 50 percent against the dollar since mid-June, with an accelerating fall in recent days….Russia now faces a full-blown currency crisis.” The crisis, however, did not spring out of nowhere. “For President Vladimir Putin, the crisis is his own doing, a direct outgrowth of a meddlesome adventure into Ukraine.”
Tags: Collapse, Currency crisis, Dollar, Exchange rate, Putin, Ruble, Russia, Ukraine
Wall Street Journal (November 3)
“Moscow may have a currency crisis on its hands.” For the year the ruble has sunk 22% against the dollar, trailing only “Argentina as the biggest emerging-market currency loser.” Though the faltering Russian economy could benefit from lower interest rates, “the Bank of Russia raised its benchmark interest rate to 9.5% from 8% on Friday in an attempt to stop a run on the ruble and stem inflation, but the ruble kept falling even after the rate hike.”
Tags: Argentina, Benchmark, Currency crisis, Dollar, Economy, Emerging markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Moscow, Ruble, Russia
