Wall Street Journal (January 7)
“As notable as the magnitude of the greenback’s rise has been its rapidity: 13% against the euro and some 15% against the yen since the end of June. Capital that had flowed into emerging markets since the world financial panic is now heading back to the land of the free,” boosting the economic strength of the U.S.”
Tags: Capital, Economic strength, Emerging markets, euro, Financial panic, Greenback, Magnitude, U.S., Yen
The Economist (December 20)
“A financial crash in Russia; falling oil prices and a strong dollar; a new gold rush in Silicon Valley and a resurgent American economy; weakness in Germany and Japan; tumbling currencies in emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia; an embattled Democrat in the White House…. Add all this up and 2015 seems likely to be bumpy.”
Tags: Brazil, Currencies, Dollar, Economy, Emerging markets, Financial crash, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Oil prices, Russia, Silicon Valley, U.S., White House
The Economist (November 8)
Brazil and Russia are the “dodgiest duo” of the six susceptible emerging markets, which also include India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey. India and Indonesia now appear relatively “secure” while both South Africa and Turkey have bright spots. However, “the mixture Brazil and Russia face—falling currencies, high inflation and slow growth—could make 2015 a very bad year…. Even optimists think the pair will be lucky to grow in 2015. Pessimists see tumbling currencies, bond-market routs and even bank runs.
Tags: 2015, Bank runs, Bond market, Brazil, Dodgiest duo, Emerging markets, Falling currencies, India, Indonesia, Inflation, Russia, Slow growth, South Africa, Turkey
Wall Street Journal (November 3)
“Moscow may have a currency crisis on its hands.” For the year the ruble has sunk 22% against the dollar, trailing only “Argentina as the biggest emerging-market currency loser.” Though the faltering Russian economy could benefit from lower interest rates, “the Bank of Russia raised its benchmark interest rate to 9.5% from 8% on Friday in an attempt to stop a run on the ruble and stem inflation, but the ruble kept falling even after the rate hike.”
Tags: Argentina, Benchmark, Currency crisis, Dollar, Economy, Emerging markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Moscow, Ruble, Russia
Institutional Investor (April 17)
“Asean countries are resisting today’s turbulence in emerging markets thanks to reforms taken in the wake of the late ‘90s crisis.” To be sure there are concerns, such as China’s slow down, “yet most investors believe the positives outweigh the potential negatives across most of the region.” This confidence is symbolized by Japanese foreign direct investment. “According to Singapore’s DBS Bank, Japan increased its FDI in Asia by $40 billion in 2013, and fully 42 percent of the country’s FDI is now in Southeast Asia—Considerably more than in China.”
Tags: Asean, Asia, China, Crisis, Emerging markets, FDI, Investors, Japan, Positives, Singapore, Slow down, Turbulence
Euromoney (March Issue)
“Investors, bankers and policymakers were caught off-guard in early 2014 as new depths of pessimism about emerging markets were plumbed.”
Tags: Bankers, Emerging markets, Investors, Off-guard, Pessimism, Policymakers
The Economist (March 8)
“Western firms have piled into emerging markets in the past 20 years. Now comes the reckoning.” The Fed’s quantitative easing, an over-exuberant investment cycle, rising local currency prices for commodities, and other factors are undermining the emerging market paradigm. “Plenty of firms and some whole industries need a rethink. The emerging-market rush may end up like a giant version of the first internet boom 15 years ago. The broad thrust was right but some big mistakes were made.”
Tags: Commodities, Currency prices, Emerging markets, Fed, Firms, Industries, Internet boom, Investment, Over-exuberant, Quantitative easing, Rethink
Euromoney (February Issue)
Those who quickly dismiss Bitcoin and other digital currencies may be overlooking their potential. “In theory, Bitcoin could serve two understated purposes: facilitating mobile transactions in emerging markets and, in the process, being a weapon in the so-called global currency war…. In fact, in some countries, as many as a fifth of respondents claimed that virtual-currency investments were a safer long-term bet than stocks and property.”
Tags: Bitcoin, Currency war, Emerging markets, Investments, Long term, Mobile transactions, Potential, Property, Respondents, Safety, Stocks, Virtual-currencies
The Atlantic (February 4, 2014)
“Lehman conditioned us to always look for the next domino. But sometimes a falling currency is just a falling currency.” Since last May when then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned tapering, “emerging market currencies have been in a world of pain.” But fundamentals are much stronger than before the Asian Currency Crisis so this needn’t be a repeat of 1997. “The danger isn’t slumping currencies. The danger is overreacting to slumping currencies.”
Tags: 1997, Asian Currency Crisis, Ben Bernanke, Currency, Emerging markets, Fed, Fundamentals, Lehman, Overreacting, Tapering
The Economist (February 1, 2014)
“There is no reason for a broad emerging-market crisis. But nervous investors could yet cause one.”
Tags: Crisis, Emerging markets, Investors, Nervous
