Institutional Investor (July 14)
Brazil hopes that a return of foreign capital might provide “an economic boost.” The country sure needs it. The economy has slumped “from 7.5 percent in 2010 to just 0.1 percent in 2014.” It is now in recession. “The end of the global commodities supercycle and the oil market collapse explain much of the decline, but domestic policy problems—including a growing deficit and accelerating inflation—are also to blame.”
Tags: Brazil, Collapse, Commodities, Deficit, Economy, Foreign capital, Inflation, Oil, Recession, Supercycle
The Economist (December 20)
“A financial crash in Russia; falling oil prices and a strong dollar; a new gold rush in Silicon Valley and a resurgent American economy; weakness in Germany and Japan; tumbling currencies in emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia; an embattled Democrat in the White House…. Add all this up and 2015 seems likely to be bumpy.”
Tags: Brazil, Currencies, Dollar, Economy, Emerging markets, Financial crash, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Oil prices, Russia, Silicon Valley, U.S., White House
New York Times (December 6)
“Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey — the so-called MINT economies — along with the more developed South Korea,” could surpass Italy, the world’s eighth largest economy, to each contribute 3-5% of global GDP. The MINTs may even give some of the BRICs a run for their money. Jim O’Neil, who coined the term BRIC to refer to Brazil, Russia, India and China, thought each had potential to produce 5% of global GDP. China’s already there and India will be soon, but it’s becoming apparent that Brazil and Russia will struggle without reforms. While the MINTs “have many challenges, they all have exciting potential, and could become mini-giants, if not quite on the scale of some of their well-known BRIC colleagues.”
Tags: Brazil, BRIC, BRICS, China, GDP, India, Indonesia, Italy, Jim O’Neil, Mexico, MINT, Nigeria, Reforms, Russia, South Korea, Turkey
The Economist (November 8)
Brazil and Russia are the “dodgiest duo” of the six susceptible emerging markets, which also include India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey. India and Indonesia now appear relatively “secure” while both South Africa and Turkey have bright spots. However, “the mixture Brazil and Russia face—falling currencies, high inflation and slow growth—could make 2015 a very bad year…. Even optimists think the pair will be lucky to grow in 2015. Pessimists see tumbling currencies, bond-market routs and even bank runs.
Tags: 2015, Bank runs, Bond market, Brazil, Dodgiest duo, Emerging markets, Falling currencies, India, Indonesia, Inflation, Russia, Slow growth, South Africa, Turkey
Los Angeles Times (June 12)
When the World Cup concludes, “the problems that plagued Brazil’s hosting effort will remain…. Brazil will face major challenges in its transformation from one of the world’s most unequal societies into a thriving democracy.”
Financial Times (June 4)
Just as the World Cup is about to kick off in Brazil “the prestige sporting event has been tarnished by allegations of corruption at Fifa, world football’s governing body, over the choice of Qatar to host the 2022 competition.” But alleged bribes are hardly Fifa’s first red card. “Fifa is a body that has been mired in corruption allegations for so long – and which has been so lame in mending its shoddy governance – that it demands a complete overhaul.”
Tags: 2022, Allegations, Brazil, Corruption, FIFA, Football, Governance, Overhaul, Qatar, Soccer, World Cup
Time (January 10, 2014)
“Only a short time ago, the world’s emerging markets, especially the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – were supposed to be the saviors of the global economy…. Now, however, with the opening of 2014, many emerging markets look like they’re the ones that need saving.”
Tags: 2014, Brazil, BRICS, China, Emerging markets, Global economy, India, Russia
The Economist (September 28)
“Has Brazil blown it?” The nation had been flying high, with an economy barely impacted by the Lehman crash and the prestige of being selected to host the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics. “Since then the country has come back down to earth with a bump. In 2012 the economy grew by 0.9%. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets in June in the biggest protests for a generation, complaining of high living costs, poor public services and the greed and corruption of politicians.” The Economist believes “Brazil is not doomed to flop,” especially if it makes progress in cutting “red tape, merging ministries and curbing public spending.”
Tags: Brazil, Economy, Lehman, Olympics, Politicians, Prestige, Protests, Public services, Public spending, Red tape, World Cup
Institutional Investor (August Issue)
Over the past decade, Brazil produced stellar returns. Internal strife and the looming tapering by the Federal Reserve are now, however, disrupting the long favorable investment environment. “Brazilian investors have not faced such uncertainty for many years. The country attracted investment because it appeared to be one of the most dynamic and politically stable emerging markets. The return of volatility will tax the ingenuity of Brazil’s money managers.”
Tags: Brazil, Dynamic, Emerging markets, Fed, Investment, Money manager, Returns, Stable, Tapering, Uncertainty, Volatility
The Economist (August 24)
Since the U.S. Federal Reserve intimated that it would begin tapering its quantitative easing program in 2013, “there has been a great sucking of funds from emerging markets. Currencies and shares have tumbled, from Brazil to Indonesia, but one country has been particularly badly hit.” India is looking less like “an economic miracle” and more like a country teetering on the verge of a full-blown crisis. “The rupee has tumbled by 13% in three months. The stockmarket is down by a quarter in dollar terms. Borrowing rates are at levels last seen after Lehman Brothers’ demise. Bank shares have sunk.”
Tags: Banks, Brazil, Crisis, Currencies, Emerging markets, Fed, India, Indonesia, Lehman Brothers, Miracle, Quantitative easing, Rupee, Shares, Stockmarket, Tapering, U.S.
