Financial Times (September 13)
Mario Draghi and the ECB have done their part, but “Germany will wait until it is too late before providing a measurable fiscal stimulus.” This is the optimal “time for Europe to invest in its future,” with low inflation, zero cost of borrowing and fiscal surpluses. “German leaders know this,” but fear alarming “the good burghers of Munich, Hamburg and Frankfurt. Were recession to provoke a full-blown euro-zone crisis, Berlin would of course act…. But do not expect Germany to dispatch the fire brigade before the flames have fully taken hold. What a waste.”
Tags: Borrowing, Crisis, Draghi, ECB, Euro zone, Fiscal stimulus, Germany, Inflation, Recession, Surpluses
Washington Post (August 2)
“China’s state-driven economic model has created many problems. Monetary policy isn’t one of them.” On the heels of the Fed’s rate cut, the ECB “looks poised to follow suit in September” and “the temptation is high for other central banks to fall in line.” But often they’re “canceling out each other’s efforts,” which is one reason the dollar didn’t fall with the latest rate cut. “Developed nations play out what is a zero-sum game.” In the process, they’re “using up the ammunition they have available to support their economies in the event of a downturn.” In contrast, the PBOC has avoided playing the rate cut game and “China’s 10-year government bond yield is relatively unchanged since the end of 2018.”
Tags: Canceling out, China Economic model, Developed nations, Dollar, Downturn, ECB, Fed, Monetary policy, PBOC, Rate cut, Temptation, Zero-sum game
Washington Post (March 8)
“Thursday’s about-face sounded alarms about a global slowdown that caught officials off guard.” On Thursday, the ECB “unveiled a new economic rescue package, citing a darkening outlook driven by a slowdown in China, fears that the United Kingdom will make a chaotic exit from the European Union and aftershocks from President Trump’s tariff wars.”
Tags: About-face, Alarms, Brexit, China, ECB, EU, Global slowdown, Rescue package, Tariff wars, Trump, UK
Wall Street Journal (October 26)
The European Central Bank is now faced with “a dilemma as it edges toward higher interest rates just as the region’s economy slows and faces escalating risks, from international trade tensions to a European dispute over Italy’s budget.” For now, President Mario Draghi has no plans to change course as the ECB seeks to “phase out easy-money policies.”
Tags: Budget, Dilemma, Draghi, ECB, Economy, Interest rates, Italy, QE, Risks, Trade tensions
Bloomberg (August 22)
The European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program “has driven down European credit spreads.” In September, as the ECB scales down this operation, it’s “going to be a tough wrench seeing the biggest buyer in the room step away. Average spreads over benchmark government bonds may already be showing the strain.”
Tags: Benchmark, Biggest buyer, Credit spreads, ECB, Government bonds, QE, Strain
Reuters (April 23)
“For investors, the key question is whether the ECB’s carefully calibrated exit plan from its ultra easy policy could be scuppered by trade tensions, especially if the dispute between the United States and China sucks in the euro zone. The ECB would have to alter its march towards a more normal policy stance if growing risks from protectionism, exchange rates or market swings end up depressing inflation.”
Tags: China, ECB, Euro zone, Exchange rates, Exit plan, Inflation, Investors, Market swings, Protectionism, Risks, Trade tensions, U.S.
Institutional Investor (February 6)
Legendary bond investor Bill Gross believes the “$12 trillion now held by central banks is a permanent fixture of global finance, acting a bit like methadone. Methadone manages the craving, but does little to end the patient’s addiction.” He also posits that the U.S. would be in recession if it were not for the easing measures of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
Wall Street Journal (April 21)
“For Europe to grow faster, the political class will eventually have to stop looking to the ECB as the growth engine of first and last resort.” On Thursday, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, was unusually blunt in his criticism of other European politicians because they “have used the relief of low interest rates as an excuse not to do reforms.”
Tags: Blunt, Criticism, Draghi, ECB, Europe, Excuse, Growth engine, Interest rates, Politicians, Reforms
Institutional Investor (March 10)
“As had been widely anticipated, the European Central Bank today announced a cut for all three key benchmark rates and an expansion of the quantitative-easing program.” What remains to be seen is “what further monetary policy course the bank may take if negative rates fail to jump start spending and growth within the common currency zone.”
Tags: Anticipated, Benchmark rates, ECB, Growth, Monetary policy, Negative rates, Quantitative easing
Wall Street Journal (January 21)
“Amid China’s economic tremors, political uncertainty in the U.S. and policy sclerosis in Europe, ECB President Mario Draghi is the only policy maker in town who seems determined to keep the party going.” While the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates and its quantitative easing program unchanged, Draghi the “lonely agent of good cheer” suggested the ECB would review its policy, possibly easing the spigot as early as March.
