Wall Street Journal (June 15)
The yield on 10-year German bunds turned negative, a new low. “This is good for governments that want to finance spending on the cheap, but it’s not so good for the private risk-taking that drives economic growth. Negative interest rates reflect a lack of confidence in options for private investment. They also discourage savings that can be invested in profitable ventures. A negative 10-year bond is less a sign of monetary wizardry than of economic policy failure.”
Tags: Bunds, Confidence, Finance, Germany, Governments, Growth, Investment, Negative interest, Options, Risk-taking, Savings, Spending, Yield
Financial Times (May 19)
“More than $100bn of spending on new projects by the world’s energy companies has been slowed, postponed or axed following the oil price plunge, evidence of the drastic industry action that will curb output in coming years.” The revisions affect 26 major projects worldwide and, taken as a whole, will “delay future production” by up to 1.5 million barrels a day, the equivalent of nearly 2% of global oil production in 2013.
Tags: Delay, Drastic, Energy, New projects, Oil, Output, Postponed, Production, Spending
Reuters (June 27)
With unemployment hitting a 16-year low, Japan’s surprisingly strong job market may provide the nation with needed momentum. “Analysts expect the economy to contract in the second quarter due to the tax hike…. The contraction could be more severe given the weak spending data, although the strong job market and an expected increase in summer bonus payments will underpin spending.”
Tags: Analysts, Bonus, Contraction, Economy, Japan, Jobs, Momentum, Spending, Tax hike, Unemployment
The Economist (March 22)
“Global spending on basic infrastructure—transport, power, water and communications—currently amounts to $2.7 trillion a year when it ought to be $3.7 trillion. The gap is almost as big as South Korea’s GDP. And it is likely to grow fast.” To close the gap, governments need to step forward, and new ways need to be found to coax private capital investment in infrastructure.
Tags: Communications, Gap, GDP, Government, Infrastructure, Investment, Power, Private capital, South Korea, Spending, Transport, Water
Financial Times (November 3)
“Some kinds of public investment bring very high returns for the rest of the economy–such as spending on basic scientific research or fixing infrastructure bottlenecks–and they are under grave threat from today’s swingeing spending cuts in the US.” Austerity is reigning in public sector capital investment, which “has dropped to just 3.6 per cent of US output compared with a postwar average of 5 per cent.”
Tags: Austerity, Bottlenecks, Capital investment, Cuts, Economy, Infrastructure, Output, Postwar, Public sector, Returns, Scientific research, Spending, U.S.
Chicago Tribune (October 16)
“Raising the debt limit neither authorizes new spending nor increases our national debt by a single dime…. It simply allows us to pay the bills Congress has already racked up.” As such, the debt ceiling should be repealed. “All it does is make the markets jittery and provide an opportunity for contemptible, hypocritical grandstanding that distracts from serious negotiations about taxes and spending. At worst it crashes the economy. No president, Democrat or Republican, should ever again have to negotiate with Congress with such a threat over his or her head.”
Tags: Congress, Debt ceiling, Democrat, Economy, Markets, National debt, Negotiations, President, Republican, Spending, Taxes, U.S.
The Economist (May 18, 2013)
Shinzo Abe is defying expectations. “He has put Japan on a regime of ‘Abenomics’, a mix of reflation, government spending and a growth strategy designed to jolt the economy out of the suspended animation that has gripped it for more than two decades. He has supercharged Japan’s once-fearsome bureaucracy to make government vigorous again.”
Tags: Abenomics, Expectations, Government, Growth strategy, Japan, Reflation, Shinzo Abe, Spending
Forbes (January 20)
In the U.S., the debt-ceiling has become a dangerous bargaining chip, which should be eliminated. “A nation cannot simply spend and spend. Yet the conversation about growing more pennywise must be divorced from the one about the debt limit. By the time talk turns to the ceiling (currently more than $16 trillion), the bills already exist—and pols are basically advocating for dine-and-dash en masse. Better to accrue fewer to start than use a devastating event to pressure the spending conversation.”
Tags: Bills, Debt ceiling, Spending, U.S.
Chicago Tribune (December 14)
“The Fed helped the nation through a crisis. Now it could be creating risk.” The Fed has indicated it will maintain near-zero interest rates until the unemployment falls below 6.5% or inflation rises above 2.5%. This monetary policy was championed by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, an inflation dove and policy activist, but the policy is misguided. “At this stage of the recovery, the biggest drags on the employment market have little to do with credit availability and interest rates — factors where the Fed does have influence — and much to do with the failures of elected politicians to fix spending and tax policies…. The central bank just isn’t all-powerful…. The Fed risks becoming a source of the problems it has done so much in recent years to help resolve.”
Tags: Evans, Inflation, Monetary policy, Risk, Spending, Tax, Unemployment
USA Today (November 29)
As the U.S. approaches the fiscal cliff “an alarming number of people…are declaring that going over the cliff wouldn’t be so bad after all.” It would. Congress needs to reach a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. “While spending cuts and tax hikes are needed to rein in federal deficits, having them kick in all at once would be like a drug overdose that plunges the economy into a new recession, according to the Congressional Budget Office and independent economists.”
