Time (February 28)
“South Korea set a fresh record for the world’s lowest fertility rate as the impact of the nation’s aging demographics looms large for its medical system, social welfare provision and economic growth.” The dearth of babies is considerably “speeding up the aging of South Korean society, generating concerns about the growing fiscal burden of public pensions and health care.”
Tags: Aging, Burden, Concerns, Demographics, Economic growth, Fertility rate, Medical system, Pensions, Record, Social welfare, South Korea
Financial Times (October 5)
“Japan’s demographics — for all the socio-economic hand-wringing they cause — are now arguably the biggest ‘buy’ signal the country has sent for decades…. In several critical areas, Japan’s demographics are aligned to work strongly in favour of companies and investors.” One of these stems from “from labour shortages and the profound psychological difference they make to corporations’ ability to restructure.” This will enable corporations to “divest everything non-core and focus instead on what they are best at.”
Tags: Buy signal, Companies, Demographics, Divest, Hand-wringing, Investors, Japan, Labour shortages, Non-core, Psychological, Restructure, Socio-economic
Financial Times (February 26)
These are, according to Citigroup analysts, “distinctly echoey times.” Their “research suggests that, if it is not careful, China may be on track for a new wave of Japanification.” China is now remarkably similar to Japan’s post-property bubble era in, for example, demographics. China’s population is “now shrinking as Japan’s did years earlier… a reminder that after 1990, Japan’s housing price index fell as the 35- to 54-year-old cohort decreased.” These and other factors call for warnings about “the potential risks for China’s banking system.”
Tags: 1990, Analysts, China, China’s banking system, Citigroup, Demographics, Echoey, Housing price index, Japanification, Population, Property bubble, Research, Risks, Shrinking, Warnings
Seeking Alpha (February 13)
“Bank of America argued Monday that international stocks offer a potential opportunity of outperformance compared to U.S. equities. However, the firm added that investors need to remain ‘choosy’ when selecting positions.” For example, Bank of America favors “regions with the greatest structural advantages, such as strong demographics, energy independence, and high productivity.”
Tags: Bank of America, Choosy, Demographics, Energy independence, International stocks, Investors, Opportunity, Outperformance, Potential, Productivity, Structural advantages, U.S. equities
Financial Times (December 27)
“Japan is on the brink of crossing a long-feared demographic lines where the indigenous population will be shrinking at the rate of one person per minute.”
Tags: Brink, Demographics, Japan, Long-feared, Population
Chicago Tribune (September 26)
“The gap between the haves and have-nots in the United States grew last year to its highest level in more than 50 years of tracking income inequality.” Demographics is one of the drivers. “On one side, at the peak of their earnings, are baby boomers who are nearing retirement, if they haven’t already retired. On the other side are millennials and Gen Zers, who are in the early stages of their work life and have lower salaries.”
Tags: Baby boomers, Demographics, Earnings, Gap, Gen Zers, Income inequality, Millennials, Retirement, Salaries, U.S., Work
Institutional Investor (December 29)
“Disruption in the asset management industry is imminent…. Due to a combination of new technologies, shifting demographics and changing client demands, the asset manager of the future must self-regulate, adopt corporate governance by investment firms, invest in technology, and cultivate and keep top-notch talent.”
Tags: Asset management, Client demands, Corporate governance, Demographics, Disruption, Imminent, Self-regulate, Talent, Technology
The Economist (June 11)
Like Japan, South Korea is also facing a major demographics challenge, especially if they can’t succeed in upping the percentage of working women. “With a fertility rate of around 1.2 babies per woman, South Korea’s labour force is set to shrink dramatically. If the country fails to make use of half its talent pool, stagnation looms. An OECD study estimated that if the labour-force participation rate for men and women was the same by 2030, GDP growth would increase by 0.9 percentage points annually. Since 2010 growth has fallen from 6.5% to 2.6%.”
Tags: Babies, Demographics, Fertility, GDP, Growth, Japan, South Korea, Stagnation, Working women
Financial Times (June 7)
“Given today’s high level of public sector debt and worsening demographics, it is inevitable that governments will resort to soft forms of default, including inflation, to escape from their fiscal straitjacket. This is a world in which elderly savers will be condemned to subsidise borrowers for a long time.”
Tags: Borrowers, Debt, Default, Demographics, Elderly, Governments, Inevitable, Inflation, Public sector, Savers
Wall Street Journal (October 12)
Japan’s dilemma over whether to proceed with the sales tax increase to 10% “mirrors the dynamics in Europe, where France and Italy recently delayed deficit-reduction plans, fearing that spending cuts could tip their fragile economies back into recession.” With much of the developed world facing aging demographics and similar quandaries, all eyes are on Japan. “In a world haunted by stubbornly slow growth and low inflation, Japan’s clinical trial—whether it ends up cure or toxin—will inform other countries when they reach Japan’s state.”
Tags: Deficit reduction, Demographics, Dilemma, Economies, Europe, France, Growth, Inflation, Italy, Japan, Recession, Sales tax, Spending cuts
