Financial Times (March 22)
Many hope that negative interest rates will “encourage banks to lend more plentifully and cheaply and help support economic recovery.” This might instead prove “a dangerous experiment with diminishing positive impact.” The optimistic forecasts overlook “how financial intermediaries may actually respond.” Negative rates “erode banks’ margins. They give lenders an incentive to shrink, not grow. They encourage banks to seek out opportunities overseas rather than in their home markets. They also risk disruptions to bank funding. All go against the grain of the central banks’ desire to ease credit conditions and support financial stability.”
Tags: Banks, Credit, Dangerous, Diminishing positive impact, Economic recovery, Experiment, Financial stability, Intermediaries, Lending, Margins, Negative interest rates, Overseas
Institutional Investor (January 29)
“There will be no interest rate increase from the FOMC before December 2015.” Even though the Federal Reserve has indicated a mid-year increase, Institutional Investor believes this will be delayed. Members of the Federal Open Markets Committee “are acutely aware of the asymmetry of risk around the timing of rate hikes. That is, the cost of raising rates too soon—and stifling a domestic-focused, consumer-driven economic recovery—is viewed as considerably higher than the cost of raising rates too late.”
Tags: Asymmetry, Economic recovery, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Increase, Interest rates, Risk, Timing
Institutional Investor (October 29)
“The U.S. is finally enjoying a self-sustaining economic recovery, but slow global growth remains a concern, and financial markets are bouncing up and down by the day.”
New York Times (February 13, 2012)
“The president’s budget calls for long-term deficit reduction, but its immediate priority is to encourage the fledgling economic recovery. Instead of trying to stabilize the budget on the backs of the poor, it would raise taxes on the wealthy and on big banks and eliminate many corporate tax loopholes.” Congress should pass this budget. Alas, Congress is “dysfunctional.” “The proposal will go nowhere, largely because of the Republican refusal to raise taxes on the wealthy and to spend money on vital programs.”
