Barron’s (May 2)
“Sure, it feels like the S&P 500 has nowhere to go but down….and sentiment toward stocks remains terrible.” Given this, ”you’d expect to see fundamentals crumbling. They haven’t. About 80% of companies have reported better-than-expected profits this earnings season, while margins of non-bank companies, at least, have increased from the fourth quarter despite higher inflation.” With everyone “so terrified” and fundamentals strong, “stocks might be ready to rise.”
Tags: Better-than-expected, Earnings season, Fundamentals, Inflation, Margins, Non-banks, Profits, Q4, S&P 500, Sentiment, Stocks, Terrified
The Economist (November 28)
“Investors are turning one eye away from the immediate struggle of coping with the pandemic and looking instead at the longer-term competitive picture. Who has won and who has lost? Like viruses, recessions usually come for the weakest first. Companies with sickly balance-sheets or frail margins quickly succumb. As promising startups become crushed closedowns, it is often the incumbents that have the resources to wait it out.”
Tags: Balance sheets, Companies, Crushed closedowns, Incumbents, Investors, Margins, Pandemic, Promising, Recessions, Resources, Startups, Succumb, Weakest
Bloomberg (June 10)
“Pity Europe’s banks. For years, they have been in retreat, losing business in their own back yards to Wall Street rivals. Now the battlefront is shifting – but what looks like an opportunity to gain ground may be just the opposite…. Shackled by sluggish economic growth at home and record-low interest rates that are crushing margins, European firms have been unable to compete with U.S. rivals in trading and capital markets. Those same dynamics look set to play out again in transaction banking,” which is set to displace fixed income as the largest revenue driver by 2020.
Tags: Banks, Battlefront, Capital markets, Economic growth, Europe, Fixed income, Interest rates, Margins, Retreat, Rivals, Trading, Transaction banking, U.S., Wall Street
Reuters (May 16)
“Years of heavy money printing by the BOJ have pushed down long-term interest rates near zero, adding to a squeeze on margins for Japan’s regional banks already suffering from a dwindling population and weak loan demand.”
Tags: BOJ, Dwindling population, Interest rates, Japan, Loan demand, Margins, Money supply, Regional banks
Financial Times (March 22)
Many hope that negative interest rates will “encourage banks to lend more plentifully and cheaply and help support economic recovery.” This might instead prove “a dangerous experiment with diminishing positive impact.” The optimistic forecasts overlook “how financial intermediaries may actually respond.” Negative rates “erode banks’ margins. They give lenders an incentive to shrink, not grow. They encourage banks to seek out opportunities overseas rather than in their home markets. They also risk disruptions to bank funding. All go against the grain of the central banks’ desire to ease credit conditions and support financial stability.”
Tags: Banks, Credit, Dangerous, Diminishing positive impact, Economic recovery, Experiment, Financial stability, Intermediaries, Lending, Margins, Negative interest rates, Overseas
Financial Times (August 11)
Fears are growing of a meltdown in the aluminum market as Chinese output soars and, much like the oil market, supply outstrips demand. “China now accounts for more than half of global supply, up from 18 per cent in 2003 thanks to cheap power and the world’s most efficiently built smelters. Established producers from North America to Russia and the Middle East—facing the lowest prices since the financial crisis, reduced margins and profits—are anxious but do not want to cut capacity for fear of losing market share.”
Tags: Aluminum, Capacity, China, Fears, Margins, Market share, Meltdown, Middle East, North America, Oil, Output, Profits, Russia, Smelters
Euromoney (May Issue)
Trading in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) is being transformed in a manner that’s benefiting investors and putting the squeeze on many big banks. “The move to electronic trading is accelerating; margins are getting tighter (no sign of oligopolistic pricing here), as competition and transparency grows, and the costs of maintaining a leading tech platform, once built, never go away.”
Tags: Banks, Commodities, Competition, Currencies, Fixed income, Investors, Margins, Oligopolistic pricing, Tech platform, Trading, Transparency
