Bloomberg (August 28)
With all of Japan’s nuclear plants off line, many now expect the first restart won’t occur until 2015. “Delays are prompting a reassessment of Japan’s nuclear outlook. JPMorgan cut its forecast in a July 28 report to 31 reactors to restart by 2019, down from 42. Two-thirds of Japan’s pre-accident fleet may never resume due to damage, seismic conditions that don’t meet NRA guidelines and local opposition.”
Tags: Damage, Japan, NRA, Nuclear, Opposition, Outlook, Reactors, Restart, Seismic conditions
Financial Times (January 6, 2014)
After spectacular performance in 2012, some fear the U.S. stock market is set for a correction. “For now, these worries are probably overstated. The current outlook has little in common with the rampant overconfidence that accompanied the great speculative excesses of the past. But there are reasons to believe that the preconditions for a bubble are in place.”
Tags: Bubble, Excess, Outlook, Overconfidence, Performance, Stock market, U.S., Worries
Financial Times (December 10, 2013)
“South Korea was one of the only winners in the summer’s emerging market sell-off, sparked by fears about the outlook for US monetary policy.” In search of a safe haven, foreign buyers poured into South Korea, but now they are pouring out in favor of more promising markets. “Caught between Japan’s fresh Abenomics-fuelled rally and reform-gripped China, South Korea looks in need of a new narrative.”South Korea, Emerging markets, Sell-off, Outlook, U.S., Monetary policy, Safe haven, Foreign buyers, Abenomics, Rally, Reform, China, South Korea
Tags: Abenomics, China, Emerging markets, Foreign buyers, Monetary policy, Outlook, Rally, Reform, Safe haven, Sell-off, South Korea, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (November 14, 2013)
“Abenomics is at risk of stalling out unless workers start seeing fatter paychecks. So far, it doesn’t look good.”“Abenomics is at risk of stalling out unless workers start seeing fatter paychecks. So far, it doesn’t look good.”
Euromoney (May Issue)
“The central bank-driven global money-go-round has been turning ever faster since last summer. Now the Bank of Japan has turbo-charged it. So far, investors are enjoying the ride. But a bout of nausea cannot be ruled out.”
Tags: Bank of Japan, Central banks, Expansion, Investors, Monetary policy, Outlook, Risk
Barron’s (June 11)
“The second half of the year promises to be an adventure.” The 10 financial wizards of Barron’s Roundtable “expect the Federal Reserve to launch a third round of quantitative easing, or Treasury-bond purchases, in an effort to juice the economy and rouse the somnolent job market. But they don’t expect that to do the trick.” Moreover, they harbor concerns over the world financial system, given the massive debt held by industrialized nations. To weather the storm, “the consensus among our experts is to stick with companies that have good businesses, savvy managers, healthy balance sheets, and low valuations. Preferably, they also pay dividends and buy back shares.”
Institutional Investor (April 17)Institutional Investor (April 17)
On April 1, Charles Beazley was named CEO and chairman of Nikko Asset Management, becoming the second non-Japanese leader to head the firm. While he is very downbeat on Europe, Beazley is decidedly upbeat on Japan’s prospects. “There’s a great deal of reconstruction work going on, plenty of capital expenditure by corporations, so production has been bouncing back and should continue to do so. We’re expecting things to normalize in 2012 and forecasting economic growth of 2.2 percent.”
On April 1, Charles Beazley was named CEO and chairman of Nikko Asset Management, becoming the second non-Japanese leader to head the firm. While he is very downbeat on Europe, Beazley is decidedly upbeat on Japan’s prospects. “There’s a great deal of reconstruction work going on, plenty of capital expenditure by corporations, so production has been bouncing back and should continue to do so. We’re expecting things to normalize in 2012 and forecasting economic growth of 2.2 percent.”
Tags: Charles Beazley, Europe, Japan, Nikko Asset Management, Outlook
Bloomberg (February 8, 2012)
Larry Fink, the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock Inc. (BLK), has provocative advice for investors. He’s bullish on the economic outlook and urges investors to take advantage of ultra-low equity valuations. According to Bloomberg, Fink believes “investors should have 100 percent of investments in equities because of valuations and higher returns than bonds.”
Tags: BlackRock, Bonds, Bullish, Equities, Larry Fink, Outlook, Valuations
Institutional Investor (February Issue)
A bull market looks set to lift U.S. stocks in 2011. This will not, however, be a “sustained market drive.” One factor is missing: productivity growth. “Strong bull markets are propelled by long-term productivity growth.” The “bullish 1960s and 1990s” prospered on the back “of solid productivity gains.” In contrast, American worker-productivity is in general decline.
A bull market looks set to lift U.S. stocks in 2011. This will not, however, be a “sustained market drive.” One factor is missing: productivity growth. “Strong bull markets are propelled by long-term productivity growth.” The “bullish 1960s and 1990s” prospered on the back “of solid productivity gains.” In contrast, American worker-productivity is in general decline.
Tags: Bull market, Outlook, Productivity gains, U.S.
The Economist (June 10)
Rather than stimulus, G20 leaders are now speaking fiscal restraint. But belt tightening, especially in Europe, could cause the economy to flounder or result in a double dip. The Economist points out, however, that the reality is not as bad as the talk. Much of the belt tightening is minimal and scheduled to begin from 2011. “A calm look at the numbers, then, suggests that the odds of a collective G20 blunder towards recovery-wrecking austerity this year are low.”
Tags: Double-dip, Europe, Outlook, Stimulus, Tightening
