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The Economist (September 22)

2018/ 09/ 23 by jd in Global News

“Mr Abe may be burning to give Japan a more normal foreign policy, but what it needs most is a more normal economy. His signature policy—Abenomics—is far from complete. The fiscal and monetary expansion, his first two “arrows”, were supposed to buy time for the third and most important one: sweeping structural reforms, leading to enduring growth. The economy should take precedence over constitutional reform… Otherwise, Mr Abe will be remembered less for his long tenure than for wasting it.”


Reuters (April 27)

2017/ 04/ 28 by jd in Global News

For “the first time since March 2008 the BOJ used the word ‘expansion’ to describe the state of the economy, signaling its conviction that the recovery was gaining momentum.” Still, some “analysts doubt inflation will accelerate as quickly as the BOJ projects, with slow wage growth keeping households from boosting spending.”


The Economist (May 21)

2016/ 05/ 23 by jd in Global News

Before the WWII, available date suggests business “cycles aged like people…. the odds of tipping into recession rose as an expansion got older.” Since then, however, the data is counter-intuitive, indicative of “ageless recoveries.” “Since the 1940s age has not withered them: an expansion in its 40th month is just as vulnerable, statistically, as one in its 80th (each has about a 75% chance of surviving the next year).”


Financial Times (May 2)

2016/ 05/ 05 by jd in Global News

More needs to be done on fiscal and monetary co-operation. “The past few weeks have highlighted the limits of monetary policy expansion. The current framework combining quantitative easing and negative interest rates is offering rapidly diminishing returns because it is not producing the large, permanent increase in the money in circulation that would be required to turn inflation expectations around and lift the world economy out of deflationary deadlock.”


Institutional Investor (September 3)

2015/ 09/ 04 by jd in Global News

“Is 3 percent economic growth a thing of the past?” In the U.S., “gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged 3 percent a year since 1960, but only 2.1 percent since the global financial crisis ended in 2009.” Economists increasingly think that “sluggish labor force expansion and productivity may stymie the kind of U.S. economic growth seen in the second half of the 20th century.” Many now “expect growth of about 2 percent to prevail for the next decade.”


Washington Post (March 5)

2015/ 03/ 05 by jd in Global News

There has been a “great shift in what U.S. corporations have done with their money.” Companies once invested 40% of “every dollar that a corporation either borrowed or realized in net earnings.” This “went into investment in its facilities, research or new hires. Since the ’80s, however, just 10 cents of those dollars have gone to investment…. The money that once went to expansion and new ventures has gone instead into shareholders’ pockets.”


Financial Times (January 14, 2014)

2014/ 01/ 14 by jd in Global News

“One trend that is prompting parts of Japan Inc to shop abroad is the ageing population. Japanese banks and insurers, for example, are increasingly looking to the younger demographics of southeast Asia to build up their next generation of depositors and policy holders.” And while this was part of the rationale behind Suntory’s acquisition of Beam, a new overseas M&A boom is unlikely given the weak yen, especially as many “companies remain unwilling to borrow for expansion after years of cutting costs and hoarding cash.”


Institutional Investor (June issue)

2013/ 06/ 29 by jd in Global News

“Optimism is beginning to infect Japan’s corporate leaders–a crucial factor considering that the new policies must spur corporate investment and expansion if they are to succeed in fostering a sustainable economic turnaround.” Corporate leaders have welcomed Abenomics, but the jury is still out. “Corporate Japan will consider the new government successful if it can end the psychology of deflation and stagnation and offer the prospect of renewed growth. So far, business leaders are fairly optimistic.”


Euromoney (May Issue)

2013/ 05/ 20 by jd in Global News

“The central bank-driven global money-go-round has been turning ever faster since last summer. Now the Bank of Japan has turbo-charged it. So far, investors are enjoying the ride. But a bout of nausea cannot be ruled out.”