Los Angeles Times (January 20)
“2015 was Earth’s hottest year on record, and it appears the planet is still getting hotter.” If the planet conforms with 2016 forecast from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it will “mark the first time the average global temperature reached record-breaking heights for three consecutive years.”
Financial Times (April 14)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its biannual forecast. Among the predictions, “India is expected to outperform China in growth for the first time in 16 years.”
Financial Times (February 9)
“Markets predict that the Fed will raise rates only to 1.6 per cent by the end of 2017; the Federal Open Market Committee’s average forecast is 3.5 per cent. Such a divergence raises the risk of volatility and poses a communications challenge for the Fed.”
Tags: Fed, Forecast, Markets, Risk, Volatility
Institutional Investor (January 20)
“Once again, Chinese growth data takes center stage.” The International Monetary Fund cited China’s slowing growth as a major reason for its latest downward forecast revision. The IMF slashed expected global GDP growth from 3.8% to 3.5% during 2015. “With a global economy still attuned to demand from a rising China, the nation’s economy remains the central theme for macro and micro-focused investors alike.”
Bloomberg (December 31, 2013)
Gold climbed higher and higher…until it didn’t. Very few predicted the extent gold would plunge in 2013. “One year ago, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had a median price target of $1,815 an ounce for the end of 2013. Actual year-end price: around $1,200.” The 29% decline was the biggest since 1981.
Tags: Analysts, Climb Gold, Decline, Forecast, Plunge
Reuters (April 25)
Profitability is expected to suffer at firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s first section. According to Barclays Capital, average net profit “will fall 12 percent this financial year, with the slide led by export-related industries such as auto and electronics firms.” Markets may already have factored this into share prices. There may even be some upside. “Some investors are encouraged by the speed at which power generation capacity has recovered since the quake, and initial plans to force large users to cut back by a quarter may be eased.” In addition, there are hopes that later in the year supply chains will stabilize and consumption will benefit from rebuilding and relief efforts.Profitability is expected to suffer at firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s first section. According to Barclays Capital, average net profit “will fall 12 percent this financial year, with the slide led by export-related industries such as auto and electronics firms.” Markets may already have factored this into share prices. There may even be some upside. “Some investors are encouraged by the speed at which power generation capacity has recovered since the quake, and initial plans to force large users to cut back by a quarter may be eased.” In addition, there are hopes that later in the year supply chains will stabilize and consumption will benefit from rebuilding and relief efforts.
Tags: Electricity, Forecast, Japan, Profit, Share prices, Supply chains, TSE
Reuters (April 6)Reuters (April 6)
Amid a dearth of disclosure, overseas and domestic investors are finding it difficult to assess investments in Japan. In response to the quake, the TSE is allowing firms an extra three months to announce earnings. “Underscoring the uncertainty, some 460 firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange have yet to tell the bourse when they plan to announce earnings for the year ended on March 31, more than 5 times the average.” Moreover, fewer firms are expected to provide “a forecast for the year ahead, depriving investors of a key guide on which they would normally rely to make trading decisions.”
A “cup of sake could save the nation.” The Financial Times disagrees with Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara’s efforts to discourage traditional hanami cherry blossom viewing parties out of respect for those still suffering from disaster. The Governor’s entreaties could make a bad situation worse, as restraint worsens a reeling economy. “Mr Ishihara risks deepening the post-disaster slump by simultaneously seeking to stop Tokyo residents from celebrating the arrival of cherry blossoms with their traditional hanami flower-viewing parties.”
Tags: Earnings, Forecast, Japan Investors, Quake, TSE
Bloomberg (November 26)
“Black Friday” sales edged up just 0.2%. That figure may understate holiday spending. This year, many retailers began Christmas promotions before Thanksgiving. Sales during the first two weeks of November rose about 6.1%. This may explain why sales were up so little on the day after Thanksgiving when retailers traditionally move into the black and begin turning a profit for the year. Bloomberg notes that “estimates for holiday sales vary from little changed to increases of as much as 4.5 percent.”
Tags: Consumer sales, Forecast, Holiday sales, U.S.
