Investments & Pensions Europe (August Issue)
“Credit investors would be wise to reflect upon the growing debt burden weighing on the global economy.” Debt has surged since the pandemic and it was already at high levels. “Global debt rose by $10trn (€8.9trn) in 2019 to $255trn. At the end of last year, global debt stood at 322% of global GDP, or 40% higher than before the 2008 financial crisis.”
Tags: 2008, 2019, Burden, Credit, Debt, Financial Crisis, GDP, Global economy, Investors, Pandemic, Reflect, Surged
Wall Street Journal (August 13)
“The U.K. recorded a steeper second-quarter contraction than its peers, suffering the worst economic hit from the coronavirus in Europe as well as reporting the highest death toll there.” Great Britain’s GDP “shrank 20.4% in the second quarter, equivalent to an annualized rate of 59.8%,…. In the same period, U.S. and German output declined by around 10%, while Italy lost 12%, France 14% and Spain 19%.”
Tags: Contraction, Coronavirus, Death toll, Economic hit, Europe, France, GDP, Germany, Italy, Output, Peers, Suffering, U.K., U.S.
Washington Post (July 31)
“The second quarter GDP report confused many, but any way you slice it, the economy saw its worst quarter in at least 145 years.” A key sentence read “Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020.” That figure is annualized and seasonally adjusted. For the quarter alone, it was a drop of 9.5 percent, “still the worst since at least 1875.”
Tags: 1875, Annual rate, Annualized, Drop, Economy, GDP, Q2, Seasonally adjusted, U.S., Worst
Wall Street Journal (July 9)
“Slack Chinese imports are a symptom of the underlying reason China’s trade surpluses, not just with the U.S. but the world, persist: China consumes too little and saves too much.” Though China’s surpluses have shrunk as a share of GDP, due a decade of explosive GDP growth, the surpluses “remain enormous.” Domestic “consumption is still under 40% of Chinese GDP, one of the lowest ratios among major economies. The persistence of those imbalances is why trade conflicts aren’t about to go away even if Mr. Trump isn’t re-elected.”
Tags: China, Conflicts, Consumption, GDP, Growth, Imbalances, Imports, Saves, Slack, Trade surpluses, Trump, U.S.
Bloomberg (April 3)
“The cost of the coronavirus pandemic could be as high as $4.1 trillion, or almost 5% of global gross domestic product, depending on the disease’s spread through Europe, the U.S. and other major economies,” according to the Asian Development Bank.
Bloomberg (March 7)
“A second hit could be coming for China’s economy after its initial shock from the coronavirus…. While China has seen new cases of the virus slow,” growing cases in “the U.S. and Europe…could knock a half percentage point off of China’s gross domestic product for the year as demand for Chinese goods slows.”
Forbes (February 28)
Japan’s Q4 6.3% GDP “plunge is a harsh wakeup call,” but the “talk of the Olympics being scrapped” is actually “an opportunity to refocus on what really matter. If Abe had used the last several years doing heavy lifting on reform rather than betting it all on Olympic glory, Japan would have greater endurance. It’s time Tokyo got to work actually creating a brighter future. Not just staging one.”
The Economist (February 8)
Production of masks, “sadly, is one of the few economic ventures that is still expanding in this thrice-struck city.” Hong Kong’s “GDP shrank last year for the first time in a decade, thanks to the trade war and anti-government protests. The coronavirus now poses a third threat. Some economists have slashed their growth forecasts for Hong Kong by more than for the mainland.”
Tags: Anti-government protests, Coronavirus, GDP, Growth forecasts, Hong Kong, Mainland, Masks, Threat, Trade war, Ventures
Wall Street Journal (November 1)
In the U.S., “GDP growth accelerated to 3% for a time along with investment, but then came Mr. Trump’s trade interventions. More than the damage from tariffs, business confidence fell amid the uncertainty of what Mr. Trump might do next. This has led to slower growth that is reflected in roughly 2% GDP growth in the last two quarters…. The strong evidence is that trade policy is the main growth culprit.”
Tags: Business confidence, Culprit, Damage, GDP, Growth, Interventions, Investment, Tariffs, Trade, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty
Reuters (September 5)
“The most likely outcome is now that GDP growth will come in below 2.5%, perhaps significantly lower, the worst since the recession of 2008/09. By implication, oil consumption growth is likely to slip below 1% and 1 million bpd, in line with BP’s latest forecast,” but well short of the last two decade’s 1.5% average annual growth rate. “Until the global economy recovers momentum, oil consumption growth is likely to remain well below trend, keeping prices under pressure.”
Tags: BP, Economy, Forecast, GDP, Growth, Implication, Momentum, Oil consumption, Outcome, Recession
