Bloomberg (December 1)
Not everyone is in line with the consensus view that the yen will weaken to 126 per dollar by the end of 2016. Among the most bullish, Morgan Stanley “expects Japan’s currency to strengthen to 115 against the greenback.” Factors behind this forecast include the historic weakness of the yen, the need for Japanese pension funds to repatriate money, improvement in Japan’s economy and a general overestimation of the BOJ’s commitment to monetary easing.
Tags: Bullish, Consensus view, Dollar, Economy, Japan, Monetary easing, Morgan Stanley, Pension funds, Yen
Bloomberg (August 13)
“China’s devaluation becomes Japan’s problem.” The surprise action raises the question of “what China’s move means more broadly for Abenomics. A sharply devalued yen, after all, is the core of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s gambit to end Japan’s 25-year funk.” But China’s move is not necessarily the death knell of Abenomics, which has been sputtering. “China’s move may catalyze Abe to act. By undercutting Japan’s devaluation, China might increase Abe’s urgency to boost competiveness, innovation and wages.”
Tags: Abe, Abenomics, China, Competiveness, Devaluation, Innovation, Japan, Sputtering, Wages, Yen
Wall Street Journal (January 7)
“As notable as the magnitude of the greenback’s rise has been its rapidity: 13% against the euro and some 15% against the yen since the end of June. Capital that had flowed into emerging markets since the world financial panic is now heading back to the land of the free,” boosting the economic strength of the U.S.”
Tags: Capital, Economic strength, Emerging markets, euro, Financial panic, Greenback, Magnitude, U.S., Yen
Financial Times (June 9)
For the first time in over four decades, Japan earned more in tourism than it spent. This last happened in 1970 when “the Apollo moon landing was still fresh in the memory, Osaka was hosting Asia’s first World’s Fair and a dollar bought three-and-a-half-times more yen than it does today.” Visitors from Asia have skyrocketed as destinations in Japan have gone from “prohibitively expensive” to reasonable, aided by the drop in the yen and higher disposable incomes elsewhere in Asia.
Tags: Apollo, Asia, Destinations, Dollar, Incomes, Japan, Osaka, Prohibitive, Reasonable, Tourism, Visitors, World’s Fair, Yen
Financial Times (January 14, 2014)
“One trend that is prompting parts of Japan Inc to shop abroad is the ageing population. Japanese banks and insurers, for example, are increasingly looking to the younger demographics of southeast Asia to build up their next generation of depositors and policy holders.” And while this was part of the rationale behind Suntory’s acquisition of Beam, a new overseas M&A boom is unlikely given the weak yen, especially as many “companies remain unwilling to borrow for expansion after years of cutting costs and hoarding cash.”
Tags: Acquisition, Ageing, Banks, Beam, Cutting costs, Demographics, Depositors, Expansion, Hoarding cash, Insurers, Japan, M&A boom, Overseas, Policy holders, Population, Southeast Asia, Suntory, Yen
The Wall Street Journal (November 28, 2013)
“Investors are piling into bets against the yen.” Based on data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), “wagers that the Japanese currency will slide against the U.S. dollar have surged to the highest amount this year and are within striking distance of levels not seen since 2007.” With the Fed poised to taper and the Bank of Japan set to maintain and possibly expand its already aggressive monetary easing program, some expect the exchange rate to move to 110 yen versus the dollar.
Tags: Bank of Japan, CFTC, Currency, Dollar, Exchange rate, Fed, Investors, Monetary easing, Taper, U.S., Yen
Euromoney (September Issue)
“There is nothing understated or stumbling about the recovery in Japanese markets since the Abe government took power last December with a pledge to lift the country out of a prolonged slump. The overvalued yen has plummeted giving a massive boost to beleaguered Japanese exporters, while the Tokyo stock market has gone from global backwater to top performer.”
Tags: Abe government, Global backwater, Japan, Japanese exporters, Recovery, Slump, Tokyo, Top performer, Yen
Wall Street Journal (May 9, 2013)
“The yen’s decline signals hopes for a more groundbreaking economic shift: the reversal of nearly two decades of stagnation, weak demand and declining prices.”“The yen’s decline signals hopes for a more groundbreaking economic shift: the reversal of nearly two decades of stagnation, weak demand and declining prices.”
Tags: Demand, Economic shift, Hope, Japan, Prices, Stagnation, Yen
Euromoney (March Issue)
”The currency war that many feared as an inevitable accompaniment to the credit crisis played out as more of a paint-ball contest until the recent sharp slide of the yen. The violence of the yen fall of roughly 20% reawakened fears of a wave of competitive devaluations.” While many fear the negative repercussions, for investment banks and hedge funds, the revival of FX uncertainty holds out the hope of a recovery in their moribund currency-trading revenues.”
Institutional Investor (February Issue)
“Talk of currency wars is once again in the air, making foreign exchange potentially a major component of investment returns.” Last year, “the dollar underperformed all major currencies except the yen.” In 2013, the Norwegian krone, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are likely to benefit if the dollar’s slide continues.
Tags: Australia, Currency, Dollar, Forex, Investment, Krone, New Zealand, Norway, U.S., Yen
