Bloomberg (March 8)
“China’s second interest-rate cut in three months has raised fears that the government is trying to devalue the yuan to give its exports an unfair boost — an understandable suspicion.” In this case, however, “lower interest rates and a moderately weaker yuan make sense not just for China but for the rest of the world as well.” These factors should help Chinese leaders achieve their “soft landing” growth target of 7%. “The rest of the world no less than China needs this soft landing to be smoothly accomplished.”
Tags: China, Devalue, Exports, Government, Growth, Interest rate, Soft landing, Yuan
Washington Post (January 19)
The drop in oil prices is hitting Venezuela, Russia and Iran hard. These “three troublesome nations” rely on energy exports for 68-95% of their external revenue. Venezuela now “appears on the edge of a political chasm. Putin will try to fend off domestic upheaval with more foreign aggression. And Iran will make a fateful choice between forging a lifeline to the United States and Europe and consciously embracing isolation and harsh austerity.”
Tags: Aggression, Austerity, Chasm, Energy, Europe, Exports, Iran, Isolation, Oil prices, Putin, Russia, U.S., Venezuela
Bloomberg (October 15)
Vladimir Putin is losing “his best friend: expensive oil.” Petro revenue makes up 70% of Russia’s export revenue and “oil has been the key to Putin’s grip on power since he took over from Boris Yeltsin in 2000, fueling a booming economy that grew 7 percent on average from 2000 to 2008.” To balance its budget, Russia needs a per barrel price of over $100. “At $90, close to the current level, Russia will have a shortfall of 1.2 percent of gross domestic product.”
Financial Times (August 26)
“China’s tottering property market presents one of the greatest threats to the global economy.” The reverberations would be felt around the globe, particularly by nations reliant on natural resource exports. “The size of China’s property boom–and therefore the fallout from any crash–is awe-inspiring. In just two years, 2011 and 2012, China produced more cement than the US did in the entire 20th century.”
Tags: Boom, Cement, China, Crash, Exports, Fallout, Global economy, Natural resources, Property market, Threats, U.S.
Euromoney (January Issue)
“US claims that Germany’s external surpluses are hindering global recovery are inaccurate and unjustified…. The complex reality is that Germany’s relative export success is not built on beggar-thy-neighbour policies or on the imposition of unnecessary austerity on its neighbours. It is founded domestically on higher productivity, better investment and substantial labour market reforms.”
Tags: Austerity, Beggar-thy-neighbour, Exports, Germany, Investment, Labour, Market reforms, Productivity, Recovery, Surpluses, US
Financial Times (November 15, 2013)
“Disappointing growth figures in the eurozone and Japan driven by weak export numbers have dashed hopes that a global economic recovery would gather pace in the second half of the year.” Third-quarter eurozone growth fell 0.2% to 0.1% while Japan’s growth rate dropped to 1.9%.
Tags: eurozone, Exports, Global economic recovery, Growth, Japan
New York Times (November 14, 2013)
“After a surprising spurt of strong growth in the first half of the year, the Japanese economy seems to be running out of steam as exports and consumer spending show signs of weakening.” The annualized growth rate was dramatically halved, from 3.8% in the second quarter to 1.9% in the third quarter. However, the consensus suggest the rate will increase in coming quarters ahead of the consumption tax hike in April 2014.
Tags: Consumer spending, Consumption tax, Economy, Exports, Growth, Japan, Weakening
Washington Post (June 20)
As the Federal Reserve moves closer to an eventual unwinding of its massive quantitative easing program, the dollar looks poised to gain, disadvantaging U.S. exports. “For investors around the world, the great unwinding has begun, with sharp swings in different world bond and stock markets as money is shifted in response to the likelihood of higher interest rates and possibly stronger economic growth in the U.S. Currency markets are moving too – and it may mean a further drag on U.S. exports that are already stuck in neutral.”As the Federal Reserve moves closer to an eventual unwinding of its massive quantitative easing program, the dollar looks poised to gain, disadvantaging U.S. exports. “For investors around the world, the great unwinding has begun, with sharp swings in different world bond and stock markets as money is shifted in response to the likelihood of higher interest rates and possibly stronger economic growth in the U.S. Currency markets are moving too – and it may mean a further drag on U.S. exports that are already stuck in neutral.”
Tags: Bonds, Currency markets, Exports, Fed, Quantitative easing, Stocks, Swings, U.S., Unwinding
Washington Post (May 27, 2013)
The U.S. has often benefited from the dollar which serves as the global exchange currency, but this is “turning into an extravagant curse. The United States wants export-led growth. So do most other countries. Not all can succeed…. The dollar’s global role puts the United States at a special disadvantage. It’s one cause of slow U.S. growth and high joblessness.”
Tags: Dollar, Exchange currency, Exports, Growth, Joblessness, U.S.
Time (April 30, 2013)
On the surface, relations look strong between the U.S. and South Korea, “thanks to a free-trade agreement, greater policy coordination and solidarity against North Korea’s provocations. But there is an unresolved question in their relationship: How much nuclear technology should South Korea possess?” South Korea wants enrichment and reprocessing rights. By 2030, the South seeks to supply 60% of its domestic energy needs with nuclear and aspires to be a major exporter of nuclear reactors. Wary of demands other countries might make, the U.S. remains opposed to expanding enrichment and reprocessing rights. Going it alone would “seriously strain the alliance. For now, South Korea appears set on gaining Washington’s seal of approval.”
Tags: Alliance, Enrichment, Exports, Reactors, Reprocessing, South Korea, U.S.
