Bloomberg (April 1)
“Rarely has the consensus been more uniformly bearish than it is now. Investors are sitting with the lowest allocation to US stocks in almost two decades.” But this extreme is creating a phenomena not seen “during any bear market in the past four decades.” Since “everyone’s leaning one way, big swings are apt to break out in the other…. Small gains can snowball when the worry is missing out on the next big rally.” As a result, “the S&P 500 just finished the first three months of the year up 7%, rounding out back-to-back quarterly gains.”
Tags: Allocation, Bear market, Bearish, Big swings, Consensus, Extreme, Investors, Rally, S&P 500, Small gains, Snowball, Stocks, U.S.
Investment Week (January 23)
“Chinese equities took a beating in the year of the tiger, with the collapse of the nation’s property market, stringent restrictions on some of its sectors and its zero-Covid policy all hampering investor interest.” In contrast, the year of the rabbit is beginning “in a remarkably different place…. Dynamics are now shifting in a favourable direction, benefiting Chinese stocks and global growth.” Nevertheless, “investment experts remain wary and advise caution.”
Tags: Caution, China, Collapse, Dynamics, Equities, Experts, Favourable, Growth, Investor, Property market, Rabbit, Restrictions, Stocks, Tiger, Zero COVID
Bloomberg (January 21)
“In a week marked by fresh recession angst from Wall Street to Davos, JPMorgan Chase & Co. finds the odds of an economic downturn priced into financial markets have actually fallen sharply from their 2022 highs.” In October, “a contraction was effectively seen as a done deal across markets.” Now, “according to the firm’s trading model, seven of nine asset classes from high-grade bonds to European stocks now show less than a 50% chance of a recession. That’s a big reversal.”
Tags: Angst, Asset classes, Bonds, Contraction, Davos, Economic downturn, Financial markets, JPMorgan Chase, Recession, Stocks, Trading model, Wall Street
Wall Street Journal (December 12)
“Stocks and bonds have headed in opposite directions to start December, a sign that investors’ worries about slowing growth have started to eclipse their fears of persistent inflation.”
Tags: Bonds, December, Fears, Investors, Opposite directions, Persistent inflation, Slowing growth, Stocks, Worries
Market Watch (November 15)
“A bullish day is setting up for stocks after more upbeat news on inflation as producer prices fell more than expected.” But the relief rally is likely overdone. “Wall Street remains wary, with fresh warnings from two big banks.” On Monday, Goldman Sachs cautioned “clients that the relief rally in bonds and risky assets was ‘likely overdone,’” just as “one of Wall Street’s most vocal bulls — Marco Kolanovic of JPMorgan — cut his equity risk exposure for the second time in two months, and he also cited that big market bounce last week.”
Tags: Bonds, Bullish, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, JPMorgan, Kolanovic, Overdone, Producer prices, Relief rally, Risky assets, Stocks, Upbeat, Wall Street, Warnings, Wary
Nikkei Asia (October 31)
“A record sell-off of China stocks has revealed investors’ fears over the country’s largest companies after Xi Jinping secured his third term,” cementing his grip on leadership. Any hopes “that China’s down-beaten tech sector would revive” or that more open borders might “boost the economy were apparently dashed” when the CCP’s national congress affirmed a Politburo Standing Committee most “notable for a lack of reform-minded top leaders.”
Tags: Borders, CCP’s, China, Companies, Dashed, Down-beaten, Economy, Fears, Grip, Hopes, Investors, Leadership, Politburo Standing Committee, Record, Reform, Sell-off, Stocks, Tech sector, Xi
Bloomberg (October 26)
“The latest bear-market rally in US stocks has brought investors off the sidelines and provided a welcome reprieve from three quarters of gloom. But traders now need to ask themselves whether the risks continue to justify the potential returns.” Are they “truly nimble enough to chase this latest short-term rally to culmination without toppling off the inevitable cliff at the end of it.”
Tags: Bear-market rally, Gloom, Inevitable cliff, Investors, Nimble, Reprieve, Returns, Risks, Short term, Stocks, Traders, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (October 16)
“Stocks slumped most of last week. Then they unexpectedly surged Thursday, only to tumble again Friday.” The wild swings may be driven by “a classic bear-market rally: a case of beaten-down markets temporarily bouncing higher, only to resume selling off.”
Tags: Bear-market rally, Bouncing higher, Markets, Selling off, Slumped, Stocks, Surged, Tumble, Unexpectedly, Wild swings
Financial Times (September 5)
“The euro dropped on Monday to a new 20-year low after Russia’s decision to shut a major gas pipeline to Europe intensified the energy crisis that has dealt a heavy blow to the region’s economy.” The currency blew past parity, going as low as $0.988 in London. Stocks fell and energy prices surged while “European capitals struggle to contain growing concerns over Russia’s ‘weaponisation’ of gas supplies.”
Tags: $0.988, 20-year low, Blow, Currency, Economy, Energy crisis, Energy prices, euro, Europe, Gas, London, Parity, Pipeline, Russia, Shut, Stocks, Surged, Weaponisation
Reuters (July 29)
“The prospect of a U.S. recession could mean more pain for battered stocks, despite a recent rebound that has taken the benchmark index to its highest level in more than a month.” If the U.S. is indeed entering recession “history shows the rough ride stock investors have endured this year may get even bumpier.”
Tags: Battered, Benchmark, Bumpier, Investors, Pain, Prospect, Rebound, Recession, Rough ride, Stocks, U.S.
