Wall Street Journal (March 25)
The aggregate M-Score index, which measures manipulation across corporate America “shows that the collective probability of fraud across major companies is the highest in over 40 years,” possibly foreshadowing economic downturn. “The theory is that their index might be catching distress in the stages when some companies are taking steps to try to cover it up…. The stock market might behave like the corporate sector is still humming along when in reality, its earnings are increasingly buoyed by tricks.”
Tags: Aggregate, Distress, Earnings, Economic downturn, Fraud, Highest, Index, M-Score, Major companies, Manipulation, Stock market
Bloomberg (January 21)
“In a week marked by fresh recession angst from Wall Street to Davos, JPMorgan Chase & Co. finds the odds of an economic downturn priced into financial markets have actually fallen sharply from their 2022 highs.” In October, “a contraction was effectively seen as a done deal across markets.” Now, “according to the firm’s trading model, seven of nine asset classes from high-grade bonds to European stocks now show less than a 50% chance of a recession. That’s a big reversal.”
Tags: Angst, Asset classes, Bonds, Contraction, Davos, Economic downturn, Financial markets, JPMorgan Chase, Recession, Stocks, Trading model, Wall Street
Forbes (April 5)
“Deutsche Bank on Tuesday became the first major bank on Wall Street to forecast a recession next year, albeit a ‘moderate’ one, thanks to the combination of surging inflation and rising interest rates.” Expectations are increasing for “a possible economic downturn on the horizon, with alarms growing louder after the widely-observed yield curve inverted last week and indicated a looming recession.”
Tags: Deutsche Bank, Economic downturn, Expectations, Forecast, Interest rates, Looming, Recession, Surging inflation, Wall Street, Yield curve
Forbes (January 13)
“Recession fears are back in full force: 97% of CFOs said that an economic downturn has already begun or will begin in 2020—up from 88% who said the same thing last year, according to Deloitte’s latest CFO Signals Survey.”
Slate (July 3)
“It might be time to start counting down until our next recession. As of this week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has now been inverted for a full quarter,” an event that has proven “an unusually reliable warning sign that an economic downturn is on the way. The yield curve has flipped prior to each of the last seven official recessions over the past 50 years, without a single false-alarm during that stretch. If securities could talk, in other words, they’d be screaming bloody murder about trouble ahead.”
Tags: Economic downturn, False-alarm, Inverted, Recessions, Securities, U.S. Treasuries, Warning sign, Yield curve
