Motley Fool (January 21)
“While Wall Street has been given plenty of reason to be excited about President Donald Trump’s second term, he’s also making ominous stock market history—and it should have investors concerned.” Prior to his inauguration, the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E was at 38.11, marking “the highest reading for an incoming president dating back to January 1871,” the earliest comparable data point. During that same 154-year timeframe, the average Shiller P/E was 17.19. “Inheriting one of the priciest stock markets in history might pave the way for a bear market or short-lived crash during his second term.”
Tags: 1871, Bear market, Crash, Inauguration, Investors, Ominous, Priciest, S&P 500, Second term, Shiller P/E, Stock market, Trump
Market Watch (January 13)
“Last week, a batch of blockbuster U.S. economic data prompted traders to consider the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to pause interest-rate cuts until summer. As a result, stocks got crushed, with the S&P 500 erasing most of its postelection gains and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its worst start to a year since 2016.”
Tags: 2016, Blockbuster, Crushed, Dow Jones, Economic data, Fed, Gains, Interest rate cuts, Postelection, S&P 500, Stocks, Summer, Traders, U.S.
New York Times (December 22)
“An annual ritual is underway at the major Wall Street investment houses: predicting exactly where the S&P 500 will finish the next calendar year.” Since 2000, the Wall Street consensus has failed miserably at this fool’s errand, predicting only gains when there were seven years of losses. Their average “variance between actual annual performance and the prediction was huge — an average gap of 14.2 percentage points.”
Tags: 14.2 percentage points, 2000, Consensus, Fool’s errand, Gains, Investment houses, Losses, Performance, Prediction, Ritual, S&P 500, Variance, Wall Street
The Economist (December 11)
“Since America elected Donald Trump as president on November 5th, the value of its listed firms has increased by $4.2trn, more than the entire worth of London’s stockmarket. The S&P 500 is up by nearly 30% this year. At 23 times its forward earnings, the index has rarely been so highly rated by investors.”
Tags: $4.2trn, 23x, Forward earnings, Index, Investors, Listed firms, London, President, S&P 500, Stockmarket, Trump, U.S., Value
Fortune (November 17)
“For investors who’ve enjoyed the S&P 500 Index’s more than 50% jump since the start of 2023, the best hope for keeping the market rolling into 2025 and beyond may be Trump’s fear of doing anything to damage a rally.” Many of Trump’s campaign promises weren’t exactly “investor-friendly,” with some considered market anathema. Still, “Wall Street doesn’t believe Trump will tolerate a declining stock market, even if it’s caused by one of his own proposals.”
Tags: 2023, 2025, 50% jump, Anathema, Campaign promises, Damage, Fear, Hope, Investors, Rally, S&P 500, Stock market, Trump, Wall Street
Seeking Alpha (October 19)
“The benchmark S&P 500 index (SP500) on Friday notched a six-week win streak, its longest weekly advance of 2024. It also notched its 46th and 47th record close of the year. Meanwhile, it was a historic week for the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). The blue-chip gauge surpassed the 43,000 points mark for the first time ever while posting its 37th through 40th record close of the year.”
Tags: 2024, Advance, Benchmark, Blue-chip, Dow Jones, First time, Historic week, Record close, S&P 500, Surpassed, Win streak
Seeking Alpha (September 21)
“It was a historic week for Wall Street, with the benchmark S&P 500… closing above the 5,700 points level for the first time ever. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow (DJI) surpassed and ended above the 42,000 points mark for the first time ever. The advance was driven by what was undoubtedly the most important event of the week:” the Fed’s half-point interest rate cut.
Tags: Advance, Benchmark, Blue-chip, Dow, Fed, Half-point, Historic, Interest rate, S&P 500, Wall Street
New York Times (September 8)
“Even by August’s typically volatile standards, markets have been especially choppy this month, with some of the biggest intraday stock swings of the year occurring over the past week.” Earlier in the year, corporate profits allayed investor fears, helping to “drive an impressive rally in the S&P 500. But this quarter has been more mixed, as multiple companies warned of declining consumer demand.” We may be approaching “the end of ‘fun-flation.’”
Tags: Allayed, August, Choppy, Consumer demand, Corporate profits, Intraday, Investor fears, Markets, Mixed, Rally, S&P 500, Stock swings, Volatile
New York Times (August 12)
“A sense of calm has returned to global markets on Monday, but the economic conditions that triggered last week’s roller coaster swings are still on many minds ahead of a pivotal week.” All eyes are on “Wednesday’s inflation data.” Economists are forecasting “a slight uptick” in CPI, but the consensus believes the Fed will nevertheless cut interest rates. “With markets on edge, traders see a big potential swing in the S&P 500 after the report comes out.”
Tags: S&P 500
Reuters (August 5)
“The market tumble presents a dilemma as another week of trading is set to unfold.” While buying “during periods of weakness has rewarded investors over the last two years,” with the S&P 500 climbing roughly 50% its low in October 2022. Today, however, “buyers of the dip risk being steamrolled if recession fears grow following last week’s run of alarming U.S. data”, especially as the “S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% during recessions since World War Two.”
Tags: S&P 500
