Reuters (July 19)
“The TOPIX is up 20% this year and trading near a multi-decade high. Some of the drivers are profound. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is asking companies whose shares trade below book value to disclose plans to enhance their market worth, spurring hopes of share buybacks. And the welcome return of inflation could prompt Japanese companies to invest more and pay higher wages, which would in turn prop up consumer spending.”
Tags: Book value, Buybacks, Drivers, Enhance, High, Inflation, Invest, Japanese companies, Market worth, Shares, Topix, TSE, Wages
Markets Insider (June 27)
“The banking crisis that unfolded earlier this year isn’t over, and banks could be hit with losses akin to what was seen in 2008 if the Federal Reserve doesn’t get inflation under control.” In its annual report, the Bank for International Settlements called attention to the “lasting ramifications of 2023’s bank failures, starting with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in early March.”
Tags: 2008, 2023, Annual report, Banking crisis, BIS, Collapse, Failures, Fed, Inflation, Losses, Ramifications, SVB, Unfolded
Wall Street Journal (June 20)
“The world’s central banks underestimated inflation last year. They are trying not to make the same mistake twice.” But they are “in a tricky spot. They need to decide if inflation has stalled way above their 2% target, which could require much higher interest rates to fix, or if inflation’s decline is only delayed. Get the call wrong, and they could push the rich world into a deep recession or force it to endure years of high inflation.”
Tags: 2% target, Central banks, Deep recession, Delayed, Inflation, Interest rates, Mistake, Rich world, Stalled, Tricky spot, Underestimated
New York Times (June 19)
“China’s economic weakness holds benefits and dangers for the global economy. Consumer and producer prices have fallen for the past four months in China, putting a brake on inflation in the West by pushing down the cost of imports from China. But weak demand in China may exacerbate a global slowdown. “
Tags: Benefits, China, Consumer, Dangers, Demand, Global economy, Imports, Inflation, Producer prices, Weakness, West
Bloomberg (June 17)
“European central bankers’ price stability mission is on a collision course with the goal of combating climate change, unless they change their ways.” Ultimately, the ECB may have to institute a special category of green lending to solve what appears to be an irresolvable dilemma. “The transition to a lower-carbon economy may fuel inflation — but raising interest rates in response to that could hinder investment in cleaner energy. So monetary policy and efforts to save the planet risk working against each other, casting a shadow over the prevailing consumer-price-targeting philosophy of the past three decades.”
Tags: Cleaner energy, Climate change, Collision course, ECB, Europe, Green lending, Inflation, Interest, Investment, Lower-carbon economy, Monetary policy, Price stability, Transition
Wall Street Journal (June 16)
“In just 24 hours this past week the central banks of the world’s three biggest economic blocs came to starkly different conclusions, with the eurozone raising rates, the U.S. on hold and the Chinese cutting. It’s getting harder for investors to understand the global economy—and potentially getting harder for the Federal Reserve to put a lid on inflation.”
Tags: Biggest, Central banks, China, Conclusions, Cutting, Different, eurozone, Fed, Global economy, Hold, Inflation, Investors, Raising, Rates, U.S.
BBC (June 13)
“UK wages have risen at their fastest rate in 20 years, excluding the pandemic, raising expectations that UK interest rates will have to rise. Regular pay excluding bonuses increased by 7.2% in the three months to April, although it still lags behind inflation.” The Bank of England has raised “interest rates 12 times since 2021 to try to slow price rises” and warned that surging pay is contributing to inflation.
Tags: 7.2%, BOE, Bonuses, Expectations, Inflation, Interest rates, Pandemic, Pay, Price, Surging pay, UK, Wages
Investment Week (June 12)
“Earlier this month, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not expect inflation to decline quickly, signalling resistance against the market consensus. We believe it would have to be a severe economic recession for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year, as is currently priced in by the forward markets. Therefore, we believe, interest rates will remain ‘higher for longer’. This is inherently positive for MMFs, where yields and total returns are driven for the most part by central bank rates. A higher-for-longer interest rate trajectory could potentially yield 4.5% to 5% for MMFs in US-dollar terms in the next three, six and 12 months.”
Tags: 4.5% to 5%, Consensus, Fed, Forward markets, Higher for longer, Inflation, Interest rates, MMFs, Powell, Recession, Resistance, Total returns, U.S., Yields
The Economist (June 4)
“For the past two years Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has pursued a zany policy of trying to bring down inflation by making borrowing cheaper. It is precisely the opposite of what any mainstream economist would advise, and it was never going to work.” His new cabinet “includes Mehmet Simsek, a voice of economic orthodoxy.” The new treasury and finance minister has said “Turkey has no choice left but to return to a rational basis” for policymaking. “Such words will be music to the ears of many foreign investors, who have given up on Turkey over the past couple of years. But they will not count for much unless they are backed up by concrete steps to fix the country’s economy.”
Tags: Borrowing, Cabinet, Cheaper, Economist, Erdogan, Finance Minister, Inflation, Mainstream, Orthodoxy, Policy, Rational, Simsek, Treasury, Turkey
Investment Week (May 10)
“The Bank of England is widely expected to make a 25 basis points hike tomorrow (11 May) as inflation remains stickily in the double digits, despite record rises in interest rates over the past two years. The move would come in the wake of similar decisions from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank last week.” Looking ahead, a rate cut seems more likely from the Fed, with analysts “split on the path forward for the BoE following the presumed 25bps hike, with much depending on economic data released over the next few months.”
Tags: 25 basis points, Analysts, BOE, ECB, Economic data, Fed, Hike, Inflation, Interest rates, Rate cut, Split
