Slate (July 3)
“It might be time to start counting down until our next recession. As of this week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has now been inverted for a full quarter,” an event that has proven “an unusually reliable warning sign that an economic downturn is on the way. The yield curve has flipped prior to each of the last seven official recessions over the past 50 years, without a single false-alarm during that stretch. If securities could talk, in other words, they’d be screaming bloody murder about trouble ahead.”
Tags: Economic downturn, False-alarm, Inverted, Recessions, Securities, U.S. Treasuries, Warning sign, Yield curve
The New York Times (July 2)
A new milestone was set on Monday: “the longest economic expansion in modern American history,” surpassing the record set between 1991 and 2001. The earlier period was famed for unabandoned optimism. “This time around, no one is accusing Americans of irrational exuberance: These good times don’t feel particularly good.”
Tags: Good times
