New York Times (December 6)
“Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey — the so-called MINT economies — along with the more developed South Korea,” could surpass Italy, the world’s eighth largest economy, to each contribute 3-5% of global GDP. The MINTs may even give some of the BRICs a run for their money. Jim O’Neil, who coined the term BRIC to refer to Brazil, Russia, India and China, thought each had potential to produce 5% of global GDP. China’s already there and India will be soon, but it’s becoming apparent that Brazil and Russia will struggle without reforms. While the MINTs “have many challenges, they all have exciting potential, and could become mini-giants, if not quite on the scale of some of their well-known BRIC colleagues.”
Tags: Brazil, BRIC, BRICS, China, GDP, India, Indonesia, Italy, Jim O’Neil, Mexico, MINT, Nigeria, Reforms, Russia, South Korea, Turkey
The Economist (November 8)
Brazil and Russia are the “dodgiest duo” of the six susceptible emerging markets, which also include India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey. India and Indonesia now appear relatively “secure” while both South Africa and Turkey have bright spots. However, “the mixture Brazil and Russia face—falling currencies, high inflation and slow growth—could make 2015 a very bad year…. Even optimists think the pair will be lucky to grow in 2015. Pessimists see tumbling currencies, bond-market routs and even bank runs.
Tags: 2015, Bank runs, Bond market, Brazil, Dodgiest duo, Emerging markets, Falling currencies, India, Indonesia, Inflation, Russia, Slow growth, South Africa, Turkey
Wall Street Journal (November 3)
“Moscow may have a currency crisis on its hands.” For the year the ruble has sunk 22% against the dollar, trailing only “Argentina as the biggest emerging-market currency loser.” Though the faltering Russian economy could benefit from lower interest rates, “the Bank of Russia raised its benchmark interest rate to 9.5% from 8% on Friday in an attempt to stop a run on the ruble and stem inflation, but the ruble kept falling even after the rate hike.”
Tags: Argentina, Benchmark, Currency crisis, Dollar, Economy, Emerging markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Moscow, Ruble, Russia
The Atlantic (November Issue)
China is “intensifying efforts to remake the maritime borders of” the South and East China Seas, “just as surely as Russia is remaking Europe’s political map in places like Crimea and Ukraine—only here the scale is vastly larger, the players more numerous, and the complexity greater.”
Tags: Borders, China, Complexity, Crimea, East China Sea, Europe, Map, Maritime, Russia, South China Sea, Ukraine
Bloomberg (October 15)
Vladimir Putin is losing “his best friend: expensive oil.” Petro revenue makes up 70% of Russia’s export revenue and “oil has been the key to Putin’s grip on power since he took over from Boris Yeltsin in 2000, fueling a booming economy that grew 7 percent on average from 2000 to 2008.” To balance its budget, Russia needs a per barrel price of over $100. “At $90, close to the current level, Russia will have a shortfall of 1.2 percent of gross domestic product.”
Forbes (September 29)
Vladimir Putin might “move against the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia” in an attempt to further weaken NATO. “Given the West’s responses to Russia’s invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, Putin may well be tempted to make a series of probes, after slicing and dicing Ukraine. He won’t send in troops and armor, as he’s done in Ukraine, but he’ll see what unrest he can create to start ‘softening up’ the Balts to become political vassals of Moscow.”
Tags: Baltic, Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moscow, Nato, Putin, Russia, Troops, Ukraine, Unrest
New York Times (September 2)
“More than anyone, President Vladimir Putin of Russia has set the agenda for NATO’s 65th summit meeting this week, which could well be the most consequential since the Cold War ended.” Ironically, his antics may serve to strengthen NATO. He “has forced on it a new and urgent purpose by effectively invading Ukraine and demonstrating his utter disregard for the international system.”
New York Times (August 27)
The talks between Ukraine President Poroshenko and Russia’s Putin produced little. “The problem is that Ukraine has little interest in a cease-fire now, and Russia is pretending that it is not in the fray. Ukraine is steadily gaining ground against the Russian-backed rebels, and knows they would use a pause in fighting to rearm and consolidate.”
Tags: Cease-fire, Poroshenko, Putin, Rearm, Rebels, Russia, Talks, Ukraine
Wall Street Journal (July 30)
“The U.S. and European Union on Tuesday finally made good on their threats of robust sanctions on Russia. The question now is whether this new approach isn’t too late to save Ukraine.”
The Economist (July 26)
“ONE trillion dollars. That may be the cost to Russian investors of Vladimir Putin’s rule…. The calculation stems from the fact that investors regard Russian assets with suspicion. As a result, Russian stocks trade on a huge discount to much of the rest of the world, with an average price-earnings ratio (p/e) of just 5.2. At present, the Russian market has a total value of $735 billion. If it traded on the same p/e as the average emerging market (12.5), it would be worth around $1.77 trillion.”
Tags: Assets, Cost, Discount, Emerging market, Investors, Market, P/E, Putin, Russia, Suspicion, Trillion
