Euromoney (July 9)
“The new Chinese government’s policy drive to deleverage the banking sector has become more apparent, and that deleveraging will continue to unfold in the next six to 12 months. In what Morgan Stanley calls its ‘super-bear scenario’, it estimates that aggressive policy tightening will reduce Chinese GDP growth to an annual rate of 5.5% in the second half of this year.” If the scenario plays out (a one in ten chance according to Morgan Stanley), it “would have major implications for global markets.”
Tags: Banking sector, China, Deleveraging, GDP, Global markets, Government, Growth, Morgan Stanley, Policy, Scenario, Super-bear
Financial Times (June 17)
“From chemicals and cement to earthmovers and flatscreen televisions, Chinese industry is awash with excess capacity that is driving down profits inside and outside the country and threatens to further destabilise China’s already shaky growth.”
Tags: Cement, Chemicals, China, Excess capacity, Growth, Industry, Profits, Televisions
Institutional Investor (May Issue)
“Investors are clamoring for sell-side research as Japanese equities lead the world in gains…. For quite a long time—decades—most of the economic and financial news out of Japan was negative. Over the past six months or so, it has been overwhelmingly positive. Stock prices are up. Real gross domestic product growth is rising. Investor interest is at its highest level in years.”
Washington Post (May 27, 2013)
The U.S. has often benefited from the dollar which serves as the global exchange currency, but this is “turning into an extravagant curse. The United States wants export-led growth. So do most other countries. Not all can succeed…. The dollar’s global role puts the United States at a special disadvantage. It’s one cause of slow U.S. growth and high joblessness.”
Tags: Dollar, Exchange currency, Exports, Growth, Joblessness, U.S.
Financial Times (May 19, 2013)
“Europe’s recent lamentable growth numbers bring home the cost of poor policy. But after years of confusion, distraction and errors, eurozone leaders are focusing on the right task, as finance ministers did in their meeting last week: to build a banking union for the euro.”
Tags: Banking union, Errors, euro, Europe, eurozone, Finance ministers, Growth, Policy
Forbes (April 23, 2013)
Is growth the root of problems like global warming? No, growth is a panacea that “must not be sold short. Growth is not just morally defensible; it is a moral imperative for achieving lasting human flourishing.” Of course, there have been cases of reckless growth. Overall, however, “hard data documents its positive impact on the things that ultimately matter: education, environmental care, physical health, political freedom, and healthy culture. Failure to realize the transformative power of growth would be a failure of our moral imaginations.”
Tags: Culture, Education, Environment, Freedom, Global warming, Growth, Health
Institutional Investor (March Issue)
Chile is facing a “Paradox of Prosperity: Strong growth puts Chile on the verge of becoming Latin America’s first developed economy while fueling popular discontent.”
Tags: Chile, Discontent, Economy, Growth, Latin America, Prosperity
Financial Times (March 22)
“China is on track for a fourth consecutive decade of rapid growth and will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy in 2016.” The prediction comes from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which predicts China’s economy will reach 8.5% growth in 2013 and 8.9% in 2014.
Institutional Investor (March Issue)
“The European Central Bank’s recent moves have helped lighten the mood for investors in the euro zone.” It is true the dark cloud is rising, yet “Europe’s economic situation is still precarious, and any number of potential shocks could widen spreads and dampen returns. Moreover, policymakers have yet to address the region’s long-term growth prospects.”
Tags: Dark cloud, ECB, Euro zone, Growth, Policymakers, Returns, Shocks, Spreads
Institutional Investor (February Issue)
“Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is releasing huge new supplies of natural gas and promising to revive the American economy with cheap energy. The U.S. energy boom may “create 3 million jobs and boost economic growth by 1 to 1.5 percentage points a year between now and 2020.” Chemical and agricultural companies are also poised to benefit from the lower cost of raw materials and energy.