The Economist (October 17)
“There is a growing risk that Britain will leave the European Union. It needs to be countered.”
Financial Times (August 20)
“Capital is cascading out of emerging markets as investors, companies and financial institutions lose confidence in developing countries… If the cycle cannot be arrested, the risk is that a growth slump in developing countries—which account for 52 per cent of global gross domestic product in purchasing power parity terms—could pull the wider world into recession.”
Tags: Capital, Confidence, Developing countries, Emerging markets, Financial institutions, GDP, Growth slump, Investors, Recession, Risk
Wall Street Journal (July 2)
Government cheerleading for stock prices leads to blame when they fall” and China’s increasingly bearish market is upsetting some investors. “As we warned in April, when the government talks up the market, it runs a risk that the public will hold the Party leadership responsible for a market correction. Beijing may feel that it has to support stock prices now to maintain social stability.”
Tags: Beijing, China, Correction, Government, Investors, Market, Risk, Social stability, Stock prices
Euromoney (March Issue)
“As Basel III was an admission that Basel II got things wrong, Basel IV is a clear recognition that there is much that is wrong with Basel III.” Judging from their reactions, bankers aren’t terribly excited about proposals that would among other things, “restrict banks’ use of internal models to determine their capital requirements and to limit their freedom to measure risk.”
Tags: Bankers, Basel III, Basel IV, Capital requirements, Freedom, Internal models, Proposals, Risk
Financial Times (March 16)
“Since nobody knows how many days or weeks Athens is from insolvency, the risk of a sudden exit is clear and present. Grexit may never happen — but it is time to get ready.” Without preparation, it is possible that “a sudden seizure of the Greek financial system” could “bring about a humanitarian crisis, global financial contagion and reputational damage to the EU.”
Tags: Contagion, EU, Financial system, Greece, Grexit, Humanitarian crisis, Insolvency, Reputational damage, Risk
Financial Times (February 9)
“Markets predict that the Fed will raise rates only to 1.6 per cent by the end of 2017; the Federal Open Market Committee’s average forecast is 3.5 per cent. Such a divergence raises the risk of volatility and poses a communications challenge for the Fed.”
Tags: Fed, Forecast, Markets, Risk, Volatility
Institutional Investor (January 29)
“There will be no interest rate increase from the FOMC before December 2015.” Even though the Federal Reserve has indicated a mid-year increase, Institutional Investor believes this will be delayed. Members of the Federal Open Markets Committee “are acutely aware of the asymmetry of risk around the timing of rate hikes. That is, the cost of raising rates too soon—and stifling a domestic-focused, consumer-driven economic recovery—is viewed as considerably higher than the cost of raising rates too late.”
Tags: Asymmetry, Economic recovery, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Increase, Interest rates, Risk, Timing
Bloomberg (November 11)
“Oceanographers have detected isotopes linked to Japan’s wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant off California’s coast, though at levels far below those that could pose a measurable health risk.” While the origin of the isotopes is clear, it is equally clear that the minute levels are absolutely safe, registering about 1,000 times below the EPA’s limits for drinking water.
Tags: California, Drinking water, EPA, Fukushima, Health, Isotopes, Japan, Nuclear plant, Oceanographers, Risk, Safe
The Economist (October 18)
At 250% of GDP, China has a debt problem. Still, this “is unlikely to cause a sudden crisis or blow up the world economy. That is because China, unlike most other countries, controls its banks and has the means to bail them out.” The lack of crisis may drive China down the same road Japan took in the post-bubble decades. “The biggest risk is complacency: that China’s officials do too little to clean up the financial system, weighing down its economy for years with zombie firms and unpayable loans.”
Tags: Banks, China, Complacency, Crisis, Debt problem, Economy, Financial system, GDP, Japan, Loans, Risk, Zombie
The Economist (October 11)
Bosses today are under more scrutiny than ever. They still need to worry about the press, but they also run “the risk of being pecked by Twitter’s swarm of angry birds. Thanks to the digital revolution, chief executives now live in glass houses. An ill-judged remark can be broadcast to the world in an instant.”
Tags: Bosses, Digital revolution, Executives, Press, Remark, Risk, Scrutiny, Twitter
