Bloomberg (June 2)
“China’s yuan policy has blindsided forecasters once again. The sudden surge in the last four days — for the onshore exchange rate, it’s been the steepest gain in more than four months — pushed the currency beyond levels predicted by even the most optimistic analysts.” At least eight analysts rushing to change their estimates. This is not the first time they have been caught flat footed. “Market watchers were caught off guard earlier in the year as well, when the yuan confounded expectations by strengthening in the first quarter.”
Tags: Analysts, Blindsided, China, Confounded, Currency, Exchange rate, Expectations, Forecasters, Gain, Yuan
Chicago Tribune (December 19)
“The Dow’s dalliance with 20,000 feels especially tenuous because investors are betting on expectations for a pro-business Donald Trump presidency, rather than on concrete corporate performance.”
Financial Times (May 2)
More needs to be done on fiscal and monetary co-operation. “The past few weeks have highlighted the limits of monetary policy expansion. The current framework combining quantitative easing and negative interest rates is offering rapidly diminishing returns because it is not producing the large, permanent increase in the money in circulation that would be required to turn inflation expectations around and lift the world economy out of deflationary deadlock.”
Tags: Cooperation, Deflationary deadlock, Diminishing returns, Economy, Expansion, Expectations, Fiscal, Inflation, Limits, Monetary, Negative interest rates, Quantitative easing
Chicago Tribune (December 3)
“The drama never ends for Argentina, land of failed expectations and the setting for a great Broadway musical. Next week, a new leading man steps into the role of president with a chance to fix the broken economy and set a positive example for South American democracy.”
Tags: Argentina, Broadway, Broken, Democracy, Drama, Economy, Expectations, Musical, President, South America
Financial Times (December 3)
“For the average Japanese investor and consumer, inflation expectations have not budged. Japan needs to jump-start a wage-price spiral of the sort feared from the 1970s…. Such a cycle should be started by increasing nominal wages by 5 to 10 per cent in 2016.”
Tags: 2016, Consumer, Expectations, Inflation, Investor, Japan, Price spiral, Wages
Institutional Investor (November 12)
“So far all comments from ECB policymakers have raised dovish expectations for the December meeting, while in the U.S. the Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin tightening. As a result, many analysts now see the macro setup for the dollar versus the euro as a catalyst to retest levels reached in the spring.”
Tags: Analysts, Catalyst, Dollar, Dovish, ECB, euro, Expectations, Fed, Policymakers, Tightening, U.S.
Institutional Investor (April 2)
Expectations are low as U.S. companies prepare to report first quarter results. Consensus forecasts “show a decline in first quarter earnings of more than 4 percent, with anticipated shortfalls across all sectors. This represents the largest downward revisions since the first quarter of 2009.”
Tags: Decline, Downward revision, Earnings, Expectations, Forecasts, Results, Sectors, Shortfalls, U.S. Q1
Financial Times (February 25)
When then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled a potential policy change in 2013, he “triggered a ‘taper tantrum’ in financial markets across the world” and “put a chill on the US housing market.” Current Fed Chairman Janet Yellen “is determined not to do the same and catch the markets unaware.” Judging from the calm market reaction to her recent guidance, she is earning “high marks” for successfully managing expectations.
Tags: Bernanke, Calm, Expectations, Fed, Housing, Markets, Reaction, Taper tantrum, U.S., Yellen
Institutional Investor (February Issue)
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi is shaking up India with his pragmatic, pro-growth government, but it will take time to fulfill the sky-high expectations he’s raised.”
Tags: Expectations, Government, India, Modi, Pragmatic, Pro-growth
Financial Times (September 2)
Expectations of tapering by the Federal Reserve have “increased market volatility. And, as in past episodes of Fed tightening, emerging markets are at the centre of the turmoil…. No matter how gradual the tapering of QE, abrupt adjustments will occur. It is in the nature of financial markets to overreact and overshoot.”
Tags: Adjustments, Emerging markets, Expectations, Fed, Financial markets, Overreact, Quantitative easing, Tapering, Tightening, Volatility
