Reuters (September 9)
“Drastic Russian cuts to gas supplies to Europe this year have turned Norway into the European Union’s main source of the fuel.” Norway is now “forecast to deliver nearly 90 billion cubic metres of gas to the EU this year, or nearly 25% of the bloc’s demand…. That’s higher than the 20% Russia will likely provide.”
Investment Week (August 23)
In early August, the Bank of England predicted “increased gas prices would cause inflation to rise above 13% by the end of the year.” The consensus is worse. “Goldman Sachs and EY forecast UK consumer price inflation would reach 15%, and Bank of America projected it would peak at 14% in January.” Citi bank has gone further and “riled markets” by forecasting “UK CPI to hit 18.6% in January… beating the 1979 peak when CPI hit 17.8% following the OPEC oil shock.” A recession looks all but inevitable.
Tags: Bank of America, BOE, Citi bank, Consensus, CPI, EY, Forecast, Gas prices, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Markets, Oil shock, OPEC, Peak, Recession, UK
Wall Street Journal (June 16)
The Federal Reserve Board’s 75-point increase “was supposed to signal shock and awe, and it was the Fed’s first move of that magnitude since 1994.” Though the Fed is “front-loading its rate increases,” it does not realize the need to “go all that high to beat inflation.” The current forecast calls for a fed-funds interest rate of only 3.4% by year end. “That means increases will taper off through the rest of the year, and the Fed predicts a peak of only 3.8% in 2023.”
Tags: 1994, 2023, 3.8%, 75-point, Awe, Fed, Forecast, Front-loading, Inflation, Interest rate, Peak, Rate increases, Shock, Signal, Taper
Forbes (April 5)
“Deutsche Bank on Tuesday became the first major bank on Wall Street to forecast a recession next year, albeit a ‘moderate’ one, thanks to the combination of surging inflation and rising interest rates.” Expectations are increasing for “a possible economic downturn on the horizon, with alarms growing louder after the widely-observed yield curve inverted last week and indicated a looming recession.”
Tags: Deutsche Bank, Economic downturn, Expectations, Forecast, Interest rates, Looming, Recession, Surging inflation, Wall Street, Yield curve
BBC (October 27)
“The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic.” According to Richard Hughes, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, “leaving the EU will reduce the UK’s potential GDP by about 4% in the long term” while the impact of the pandemic is forecast as a 2% contraction of GDP.
Wall Street Journal (October 18)
“China’s economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter from a year earlier, slowing sharply from the previous quarter’s 7.9% growth rate, as power shortages and supply-chain problems added to the impact from Beijing’s efforts to rein in the real estate and technology sectors.” A slowdown was expected, but results fell short of “the 5.1% growth forecast” economists provided last week.
Tags: Beijing, China, Economy, Forecast, Growth, Impact, Power shortages, Problems, Real estate, Slowdown, Supply chain, Technology
Wall Street Journal (August 12)
“The rapidly-spreading coronavirus Delta variant and its impact on the global economy mean the world will consume less oil this year,” Lowering its forecast, the IEA’s latest market report notes that “the worsening of the pandemic, as well as revisions to historical data, mean its global oil demand outlook has been “appreciably downgraded,” with some of this year’s forecast recovery shifted to 2022.”
Tags: Coronavirus, Data, Delta variant, Demand, Downgraded, Forecast, Global economy, IEA, Impact, Oil, Outlook, Pandemic, Recovery, Worsening
Reuters (September 5)
“The most likely outcome is now that GDP growth will come in below 2.5%, perhaps significantly lower, the worst since the recession of 2008/09. By implication, oil consumption growth is likely to slip below 1% and 1 million bpd, in line with BP’s latest forecast,” but well short of the last two decade’s 1.5% average annual growth rate. “Until the global economy recovers momentum, oil consumption growth is likely to remain well below trend, keeping prices under pressure.”
Tags: BP, Economy, Forecast, GDP, Growth, Implication, Momentum, Oil consumption, Outcome, Recession
New York Times (April 19)
“Civilization’s understanding of Earth has expanded enormously in recent decades, making humanity safer and more prosperous.” But a new “dark age is a growing possibility” as our ability to predict future weather patterns is disrupted by climate change. Without the ability to accurately forecast long-term phenomena, “we will face huge challenges feeding a growing population and prospering within our planet’s finite resources.”
Tags: Challenges, Civilization, Climate change, Dark age, Disrupted, Earth, Forecast, Humanity, Patterns, Population, Predict, Prosperous, Resources, Weather
Los Angeles Times (January 20)
“2015 was Earth’s hottest year on record, and it appears the planet is still getting hotter.” If the planet conforms with 2016 forecast from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it will “mark the first time the average global temperature reached record-breaking heights for three consecutive years.”
