Wall Street Journal (January 2)
Citing “red flags” like housing market decline, the spend down of pandemic savings, and tighter bank lending standards, “more than two-thirds of the economists at 23 large financial institutions that do business directly with the Federal Reserve are betting the U.S. will have a recession in 2023. Two others are predicting a recession in 2024.”
Tags: 2023, Decline, Economists, Fed, Financial institutions, Housing market, Lending standards, Pandemic savings, Recession, Red flags, Tighter, U.S.
BBC (November 15)
“Britain’s stock market has lost its position as Europe’s most-valued,” marking “the first time Paris has overtaken London since records began…. The combined value of British shares is now around $2.821 trillion (£2.3 trillion), while France’s are worth around $2.823 trillion.” Factors behind the shift include “a weak pound, fears of recession in the UK and surging sales at French luxury goods makers.”
Tags: $2.823 trillion, Britain, Europe, Fears, First, France, London, Most-valued, Overtaken, Paris, Recession, Records, Shares, Stock market, Surging sales, UK, Weak pound
American Banker (November 9)
“Lenders made it harder in the third quarter for both consumers and businesses to access credit,” and this trend looks likely to continue. “If the U.S. economy falls into a recession, more than 80% of banks said they would ‘somewhat’ or ‘substantially’ tighten lending standards for credit cards and loans backed by commercial real estate. More than 70% of banks said they would do the same for auto, commercial and industrial and residential real estate loans.”
Tags: Access, Auto, Banks, Businesses, Commercial, Consumers, Credit, Credit cards, Economy, Industrial, Lenders, Lending standards, Loans, Real estate, Recession, Tighten, U.S.
BBC (November 3)
“The Bank of England has warned the UK is facing its longest recession since records began, as it raised interest rates by the most in 33 years,” indicating that “the UK would face a ‘very challenging’ two-year slump with unemployment nearly doubling by 2025.” The BoE’s forecast paints “a picture of a painful economic period, with the UK performing worse than the US and the Eurozone.”
Tags: 2025, BOE, Challenging, Doubling, Forecast, Interest rates, Longest, Painful, Recession, Records, Slump, U.S., UK, Unemployment, Warned, Worse
The Economist (October 22)
“House prices are now falling in nine rich economies…. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely.” Falling home prices are unlikely to lead to a global banking crisis, but “it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.”
Tags: Banking, Canada, Condo, Correction, Crisis, Deepening, Downturn, Falling, Finances, House prices, Inflation, Intensify, Political storm, Recession, Rich economies, Wrecked
CNN (October 19)
Even with “Trussonomics… tossed out and a total market meltdown avoided, the near-term prospects for Britain’s economy look increasingly wobbly. A recession stretching through the winter looms. Policymakers were facing tough choices even before Truss unleashed financial market chaos. Now, with the government’s credibility tarnished, they’re in an even worse predicament.”
Tags: Avoided, Britain, Chaos. Government, Credibility, Economy, Market, Meltdown, Prospects, Recession, Tarnished, Tossed out, Trussonomics, Wobbly
Marketwatch (September 20)
“The number of millionaires in the world is set to nearly double by 2026, despite rising interest rates, looming recession fears and a recent plunge in net worth for some of the world’s wealthiest people.” All told, the number of millionaires “is expected to jump 40% and reach 87.5 million over the next five years.”
Tags: 2026, 87.5 million, Double, Fears, Interest rates, Millionaires, Net worth, Plunge, Recession, Wealthiest, World
Investment Week (August 23)
In early August, the Bank of England predicted “increased gas prices would cause inflation to rise above 13% by the end of the year.” The consensus is worse. “Goldman Sachs and EY forecast UK consumer price inflation would reach 15%, and Bank of America projected it would peak at 14% in January.” Citi bank has gone further and “riled markets” by forecasting “UK CPI to hit 18.6% in January… beating the 1979 peak when CPI hit 17.8% following the OPEC oil shock.” A recession looks all but inevitable.
Tags: Bank of America, BOE, Citi bank, Consensus, CPI, EY, Forecast, Gas prices, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Markets, Oil shock, OPEC, Peak, Recession, UK
Real Money (August 17)
“Japan marches to the beat of a different drummer. And its pace, slow and steady, is looking solid as much of the rest of the world contends with the din of roaring inflation and clanging recession.” In contrast, Japan’s “inflation is running at a mild and manageable 2.4% as of July” and Japan looks poised for “steady multiyear growth…. Japanese equities therefore continue to justify themselves as safe havens.”
Tags: Different drummer, Equities, Inflation, Japan, Manageable, Multiyear growth, Pace, Recession, Safe havens, Slow, Solid, Steady
Reuters (July 29)
“The prospect of a U.S. recession could mean more pain for battered stocks, despite a recent rebound that has taken the benchmark index to its highest level in more than a month.” If the U.S. is indeed entering recession “history shows the rough ride stock investors have endured this year may get even bumpier.”
Tags: Battered, Benchmark, Bumpier, Investors, Pain, Prospect, Rebound, Recession, Rough ride, Stocks, U.S.
