The Economist (December 12)
“Since interest rates hit rock-bottom in 2009, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly made optimistic forecasts about when they would start rising, only to delay the big day again and again.” The long-awaited hike now appears imminent. “On December 16th, when the Fed’s rate-setting committee meets, it seems all but certain to raise rates.”
Tags: Fed, Forecasts, Hike, Interest rates
Wall Street Journal (August 28)
“The turmoil in world markets may push back the date the Federal Reserve raises interest rates…. One consequence even in anticipation of the Fed’s move is that investors in emerging markets risk getting caught in a rip tide of liquidity heading back to the U.S.”
Tags: Emerging markets, Federal Reserve, Interest rates, Investors, Liquidity, Markets, Turmoil, U.S.
Institutional Investor (August 4)
“Conventional wisdom isn’t always the wisest.” Conventional wisdom holds that rising interest rates are bad for REITs. This time around, however, REITs “offer value in the face of an interest rate hike. Real estate investment trusts and master limited partnerships are yield plays that should fare well if rates rise gradually.”
Tags: Conventional wisdom, Gradual, Interest rates, MLPs, Real estate, REITs
Wall Street Journal (March 5)
The European Central Bank (ECB) hasn’t even actually started its quantitative easing (QE) activities. Somehow, however, its QE program “is working before it has even begun.” The euro has fallen 20% since last summer and, this week, dropped to $1.10, an eleven year low. How? “As investors came to view QE as inevitable, prices responded, especially the price of the euro. As a result of Mr. Draghi’s open-mouth operations to talk down the euro—coupled with an expectation that interest rates might rise soon in the U.S.—the euro has declined steadily against the dollar and other currencies.” Whether the actual QE program will be able to duplicate this pregame success remains to be seen.
Tags: Currencies, Dollar, Draghi, ECB, euro, Interest rates, Investors, Quantitative easing, U.S.
Institutional Investor (January 29)
“There will be no interest rate increase from the FOMC before December 2015.” Even though the Federal Reserve has indicated a mid-year increase, Institutional Investor believes this will be delayed. Members of the Federal Open Markets Committee “are acutely aware of the asymmetry of risk around the timing of rate hikes. That is, the cost of raising rates too soon—and stifling a domestic-focused, consumer-driven economic recovery—is viewed as considerably higher than the cost of raising rates too late.”
Tags: Asymmetry, Economic recovery, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Increase, Interest rates, Risk, Timing
Bloomberg (December 18)
Early this year, Kremlin aids advised Vladimir Putin that “Russia was rich enough to withstand the financial repercussions from a possible incursion into Ukraine.” Their advice and the subsequent invasion “now looks like a grave miscalculation. Russia has driven interest rates to punishing levels and spent at least $87 billion, or 17 percent, of its foreign-exchange reserves trying to prevent a collapse in the ruble from spiraling into a panic.
Tags: Advice, Collapse, Foreign-exchange reserves, Interest rates, Kremlin, Miscalculation, Panic, Putin, Ruble, Russia, Ukraine
Wall Street Journal (November 3)
“Moscow may have a currency crisis on its hands.” For the year the ruble has sunk 22% against the dollar, trailing only “Argentina as the biggest emerging-market currency loser.” Though the faltering Russian economy could benefit from lower interest rates, “the Bank of Russia raised its benchmark interest rate to 9.5% from 8% on Friday in an attempt to stop a run on the ruble and stem inflation, but the ruble kept falling even after the rate hike.”
Tags: Argentina, Benchmark, Currency crisis, Dollar, Economy, Emerging markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Moscow, Ruble, Russia
Wall Street Journal (September 5)
“You can’t say Mario Draghi isn’t doing his part.” Trying to deliver another economic “miracle,” the European Central Bank (ECB) President lowered interest rates and increased the negative rate institutions pay on funds deposited with the ECB. “Too bad the politicians keep using Mr. Draghi as an excuse to dodge their responsibility to pass pro-growth reforms…. Europe’s main economic problem is a political class that doesn’t want to address the structural impediments to growth that have nothing to do with monetary policy.”
Tags: ECB, Europe, Excuse, Growth reforms, Interest rates, Mario Draghi, Monetary policy, Politicians, Responsibility, Structural impediments
The Economist (July 19)
The weak recovery continues in the U.S. with many economists estimating potential growth of 1.75%-2.0%. “Evidence is mounting that America’s potential growth rate has plummeted…. Solving the short-term problem means boosting demand, so the Federal Reserve should keep interest rates low. But to pep up long-term growth, America also needs to address the supply side. In particular, it needs more workers and faster increases in productivity.”
Tags: Federal Reserve, Growth, Interest rates, Productivity, Recovery, U.S., Weak, Workers
Institutional Investor (June 19)
“Income potential and low interest rates are fueling pension fund interest in commercial real estate.” Fund managers struggling to find “investments that can match long-term liabilities and fight inflation” are finding “some measure of calm” in real estate.
Tags: Fund managers, Income, Inflation, Interest rates, Investments, Liabilities, Pension funds, Potential, Real estate
