Institutional Investor (December 28)
“U.S. earnings have declined for four straight quarters, and market participants are taking notice.” This decline in corporate profits may “signal a looming recession.”
Institutional Investor (November 18)
“Since World War II, the U.S. economy has averaged a recession every five years.” Despite over six years of recovery, it doesn’t look like the U.S. is especially prone to recession because “the catalysts for a downturn aren’t in place.” There’s no real asset bubble, overheating or inflation. A recession is always a risk and can be brought about by unforeseen external shocks. At the moment, however, the risk of a recession looks normal, about 20–25%, for the next 12 months.
Tags: Asset bubble, Economy, External shock, Inflation, Overheating, Recession, Recovery, Risk, U.S., World War II
“Wall Street Journal (November 17)
“Japan is in recession for the fifth time in seven years, and the second time since Shinzo Abe returned to office three years ago. The energetic Prime Minister who promised to end his country’s stagnation is failing at the task. It’s time for a rethink.”
Institutional Investor (September 18)
“Ebullient growth isn’t likely any time soon, but with no recession in sight, equity bears are likely to remain in hibernation.” The 6.5 year bull market in the U.S. still has further to run.
Financial Times (August 20)
“Capital is cascading out of emerging markets as investors, companies and financial institutions lose confidence in developing countries… If the cycle cannot be arrested, the risk is that a growth slump in developing countries—which account for 52 per cent of global gross domestic product in purchasing power parity terms—could pull the wider world into recession.”
Tags: Capital, Confidence, Developing countries, Emerging markets, Financial institutions, GDP, Growth slump, Investors, Recession, Risk
New York Times (August 18)
“Brazil is in tatters. The economy is in a deepening recession.” On top of that Petrobras is facing a “massive corruption scandal” and the country’s credit rating was just downgraded by Moody’s. “In all this turbulence, it is easy to miss the good news: the fortitude of Brazil’s democratic institutions.” Specifically, “in pursuing bribery at Petrobras, federal prosecutors…have not been deterred by rank or power, dealing a blow to the entrenched culture of immunity among government and business elites.”
Tags: Brazil, Bribery, Business, Corruption, Credit rating, Democratic institutions, Downgraded, Economy, Elites, Government, Immunity, Moody's, Petrobras, Power, Prosecutors, Rank, Recession, Scandal
Institutional Investor (July 14)
Brazil hopes that a return of foreign capital might provide “an economic boost.” The country sure needs it. The economy has slumped “from 7.5 percent in 2010 to just 0.1 percent in 2014.” It is now in recession. “The end of the global commodities supercycle and the oil market collapse explain much of the decline, but domestic policy problems—including a growing deficit and accelerating inflation—are also to blame.”
Tags: Brazil, Collapse, Commodities, Deficit, Economy, Foreign capital, Inflation, Oil, Recession, Supercycle
Financial Times (February 16)
“The good news is the Japanese recession is over. But that’s where the good news ends…. It’s difficult to argue there’s anything like a robust recovery in these figures.”
Bloomberg (January 2)
“Venezuela had a banner year in 2014: the world’s highest misery index (inflation plus unemployment), a fresh recession, and a currency whose black-market value plunged faster than even the Russian ruble…. Unfortunately, President Nicolas Maduro doesn’t seem to have any good ideas — any ideas at all, really — for improving things.”
Tags: Black-market value, Currency, Inflation, Misery index, Nicolas Maduro, Recession, Ruble, Russia, Unemployment, Venezuela
Financial Times (December 13)
“France is in a similar situation to Italy. Both are attempting structural reform while fighting the threat of recession and asking the EU—which is to say Berlin—for more leeway on fiscal policy.” The reforms will help to remove “the bureaucratic sclerosis that chokes off innovation and growth.”
Tags: Berlin, Bureaucracy, EU, Fiscal policy, France, Growth, Innovation, Italy, Recession, Structural reform, Threat
