New York Times (September 27)
“Governments, businesses and communities” need to get ready for El Niño. “There are more than two dozen climate models from agencies around the world that forecast El Niño conditions, and they often don’t agree. But this year they are more aligned than ever before in predicting that El Niño conditions will last through the end of 2026. This high level of certainty means that many of the expected impacts — intense rainfall in some regions, drought and wildfire in others and an increase in global warming — are very likely to occur.”
Tags: 2026, Agencies, Businesses, Certainty, Climate models, Communities, Conditions, Drought, El Niño, Forecast, Governments, Impacts, Predicting, Rainfall, Wildfire
BBC (July 5)
“The world’s average temperature reached a new high on Monday 3 July, topping 17 degrees Celsius for the first time.” This marks “the highest in any instrumental record dating back to the end of the 19th century.” Scientists attribute the record high to “El Niño and mankind’s ongoing emissions of carbon dioxide.” With El Niño about to enter its hottest phase, “scientists believe that more records will be shattered as the summer goes on and El Niño gains strength.”
Tags: 17 degrees, CO2, El Niño, Emissions, High, Hottest phase, Record, Scientists, Shattered, Strength, Summer, Temperature
BBC (May 17)
“There’s now a 66% chance we will pass the 1.5C global warming threshold between now and 2027. The chances are rising due to emissions from human activities and a likely El Niño weather pattern.” This would not necessarily mean that “the Paris limit had been broken,” especially if the temperature falls back under the threshold in subsequent years. “Scientists say there is still time to restrict global warming by cutting emissions sharply.”
Tags: 1.5C, 2027, Broken, El Niño, Emissions, Global warming, Human activities, Paris limit, Scientists, Temperature, Threshold, Weather pattern
The Economist (November 7)
El Niños’ “weather effects, both good and bad, are felt in many places” but rich countries gain more from mighty Niños, on balance, than they lose.” In contrast, poor countries are the big losers. Poor governments and individuals can seldom afford disaster insurance. “Since the poorest are least likely to recoup their losses from disasters linked to El Niño, minimising their losses needs to be the priority.” As countries like Ethiopia have shown, low cost measures carried out in advance can play a major role in alleviating the devastation that often accompanies El Niño.
Tags: Devastation, Disaster insurance, Disasters, El Niño, Ethiopia, Losses, Poor countries, Priority, Rich countries, Weather
