Reuters (July 29)
“The prospect of a U.S. recession could mean more pain for battered stocks, despite a recent rebound that has taken the benchmark index to its highest level in more than a month.” If the U.S. is indeed entering recession “history shows the rough ride stock investors have endured this year may get even bumpier.”
Tags: Battered, Benchmark, Bumpier, Investors, Pain, Prospect, Rebound, Recession, Rough ride, Stocks, U.S.
Washington Post (July 26)
“The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. A confusing one, too. Growth appears to be sputtering, home sales are tumbling and economists warn of a potential recession ahead. But consumers keep spending, businesses keep posting profits and the economy keeps adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month.”
Tags: Awkward, Businesses, Caught, Confusing, Consumers, Economists, Economy, Growth, Home sales, Painful, Profits, Recession, Spending, Sputtering, U.S.
CNN (July 26)
Is the U.S. “heading for a recession” or “already in one”? Since “it already feels like a recession, such fine distinctions may not matter. “Soaring prices… make it tougher to pay for everyday expenses and monthly bills. The stock market has tanked this year. Home sales have started to slip. Consumer confidence is low.” One mid-July poll found that 65% of US voters already “think we’re in a recession.”
Tags: 65%, Bills, Consumer confidence, Expenses, Home sales, Prices, Recession, Soaring, Stock market, U.S.
Institutional Investor (July 18)
“Private equity investors have little to fear from a recession, as the best returns come after these periods.” A recent report by Bain Consulting shows, for example, that “following the bursting of the dot-com bubble, buyout funds generated a median IRR of 25 percent in 2001, 40 percent in 2002, and 47 percent in 2003. In 2009, after the Global Financial Crisis, they posted a 24 percent IRR.” In the near future, however, “private equity firms still face a bumpy road ahead, despite the potentially short duration of the market downturn.”
Tags: Bain Consulting, Bumpy, Buyout funds, Dot-com bubble, Fear, Investors, IRR, Market downturn, Private equity, Recession, Returns
The Economist (May 28)
Signs suggest “America’s markets are entering a new, more worrying phase.” Falling share prices could initially be attributed to the Federal Reserve’s policy moves, but “in recent weeks share prices have kept falling, even as bond yields have dropped back,” a combination suggesting recession. “Indeed, the mix of Fed tightening, slowing gdp and rising production costs has the ominous feel of the later stages of a business cycle. The expansion is barely two years old. Yet investors are already worried that corporate profits are under threat.”
Tags: Bond yields, Business cycle, Expansion, Falling, Fed, GDP, Investors, Markets, Ominous, Production costs, Profits, Recession, Share prices, Signs, Tightening, U.S., Worried, Worrying
Financial Times (May 6)
“The yen may very well experience further depreciation pressure over the coming weeks… we are in a complex and volatile period for global markets.” Beyond that, however, “there are a number of paths to recovery for the yen…. Investors can anticipate a rebound in the yen over time and should consider owning this haven asset as a hedge against global recession and other tail risks.”
Tags: Anticipate, Asset, Complex, Depreciation, Global markets, Haven, Hedge, Investors, Pressure, Rebound, Recession, Recovery, Volatile, Yen
Wall Street Journal (April 26)
“Worries about the war in Ukraine, China’s Covid-19 outbreak, a U.S. or European recession and surging global inflation are making a long-spurned asset increasingly popular with Wall Street’s top money managers these days: cash.” Increasingly asset managers “are looking to move funds into low-risk, cash-like assets. That marks a shift from recent years, when steadily climbing equity indexes trained investors to buy every dip and not miss out on gains by holding cash.”
Tags: Asset, Asset managers, Cash, China, COVID-19, Dip, Europe, Inflation, Investors, Low-risk, Money managers, Recession, Shift, Spurned, Surging, U.S., Ukraine, Wall Street, War, Worries
Bloomberg (April 18)
“The slower the Fed, the harder the landing.” Quick action while inflation expectations are “still well anchored” will minimize the “cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment.” Those costs will mushroom if the Fed “waits and allows inflation expectations to get out of hand.” A recession remains unlikely in 2022, but if there isn’t one “in the next couple years, it will only be worse.”
Tags: Anchored, Costs, Expectations, Fed, Inflation, Landing, Output, Quick action, Recession, Slower, Unemployment, Worse
Bloomberg (April 12)
“The feel-good days for global markets at the end of March are firmly over.” Suddenly, everyone is afraid of economic slowing. “With monetary support rapidly receding and recession risks rising, investors are hunkering down. Companies resilient to an economic slowdown such as health care are back in favor. Ditto cash and dividend-paying stocks. Meanwhile, demand for hedging is creeping up in the options market.”
Tags: Afraid, Companies, Dividends, Feel good, Global markets, Health care, Hedging, Hunkering down, Investors, March, Monetary support, Recession, Risks, Slowdown
Forbes (April 5)
“Deutsche Bank on Tuesday became the first major bank on Wall Street to forecast a recession next year, albeit a ‘moderate’ one, thanks to the combination of surging inflation and rising interest rates.” Expectations are increasing for “a possible economic downturn on the horizon, with alarms growing louder after the widely-observed yield curve inverted last week and indicated a looming recession.”
Tags: Deutsche Bank, Economic downturn, Expectations, Forecast, Interest rates, Looming, Recession, Surging inflation, Wall Street, Yield curve
