Institutional Investor (June 20)
The Fed and many others are underestimating “the true strength of the economy and the underlying structural evolution that is at play as a result of technological change…. As inflation firms in the months ahead, it will become abundantly clear that the Fed has had a window of opportunity to move on rates.”
Tags: Economy, Fed, Inflation, Rates, Structural evolution, Technological change
Financial Times (June 4)
“With inflation stuck at zero, and the BoJ’s attempts to fly looking more like Wendy’s than Peter Pan’s, Mr Kuroda has taken every opportunity to reinforce his commitment to future inflation…. In Neverland, whatever Peter Pan wanted, he got. In his determination to end Japan’s deflation, Mr Kuroda may be the same.”
Institutional Investor (May 23)
“After a stronger than anticipated consumer inflation released in the U.S. on Friday, Janet Yellen dampened investors’ hopes that the Federal Reserve would delay a rate increase until next year.” Her underlying message was “that recent setbacks in economic data do not appear to represent a roadblock to growth despite labor conditions that remain fragile.”
Wall Street Journal (April 29)
The cable industry is “panicked over the looming breakup of its business model” as fewer traditional linear customers want big bundles and younger viewers increasingly opt for video on demand subscriptions. Cable operators benefitted from local monopolies that allowed them to “dictate packages and pricing, markets be damned.” Though “cable bills have grown at almost triple the rate of inflation over the past two decades,” the gravy train may be coming to an end.
Tags: Cable, Customers, Inflation, Markets, Monopolies, Packages, Pricing, Video on demand, Viewers
Washington Post (March 11)
An “epidemic of stagnant wages” continues in the U.S. despite robust job growth. In February, the “official unemployment fell to its lowest rate since early 2008. Wages, however, increased by an anemic 0.1 percent. Over the previous 12 months, they increased just 2 percent. Factoring in inflation, they’ve barely increased at all.”
Tags: Growth, Inflation, Jobs, Stagnant wages, U.S., Unemployment
Financial Times (January 23)
“It has taken far too long for the European Central Bank to embark on quantitative easing but its belated action is no less welcome.” ECB president Mario Draghi unveiled a massive program to purchase eurozone bonds through 2016 to help counter the threat of deflation. “There is no doubt that Mr Draghi needed to act. Growth and underlying inflation have been relentlessly weak, providing clear evidence that demand in the eurozone is faltering.”
Tags: Bonds, Deflation, ECB, eurozone, Growth, Inflation, Mario Draghi, Quantitative easing
Bloomberg (January 2)
“Venezuela had a banner year in 2014: the world’s highest misery index (inflation plus unemployment), a fresh recession, and a currency whose black-market value plunged faster than even the Russian ruble…. Unfortunately, President Nicolas Maduro doesn’t seem to have any good ideas — any ideas at all, really — for improving things.”
Tags: Black-market value, Currency, Inflation, Misery index, Nicolas Maduro, Recession, Ruble, Russia, Unemployment, Venezuela
Financial Times (December 19)
Concerns that lower oil prices will spark deflation are misplaced. “While lower oil prices will have a one-off arithmetic effect on the price level and hence reduce inflation, that should boost growth rather than retarding it. Lower oil prices…benefit households almost immediately,” essentially raising real incomes and stimulating demand.
Tags: Concerns, Deflation, Demand, Growth, Households, Inflation, Oil prices, Real incomes
The Economist (November 8)
Brazil and Russia are the “dodgiest duo” of the six susceptible emerging markets, which also include India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey. India and Indonesia now appear relatively “secure” while both South Africa and Turkey have bright spots. However, “the mixture Brazil and Russia face—falling currencies, high inflation and slow growth—could make 2015 a very bad year…. Even optimists think the pair will be lucky to grow in 2015. Pessimists see tumbling currencies, bond-market routs and even bank runs.
Tags: 2015, Bank runs, Bond market, Brazil, Dodgiest duo, Emerging markets, Falling currencies, India, Indonesia, Inflation, Russia, Slow growth, South Africa, Turkey
Wall Street Journal (November 3)
“Moscow may have a currency crisis on its hands.” For the year the ruble has sunk 22% against the dollar, trailing only “Argentina as the biggest emerging-market currency loser.” Though the faltering Russian economy could benefit from lower interest rates, “the Bank of Russia raised its benchmark interest rate to 9.5% from 8% on Friday in an attempt to stop a run on the ruble and stem inflation, but the ruble kept falling even after the rate hike.”
Tags: Argentina, Benchmark, Currency crisis, Dollar, Economy, Emerging markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Moscow, Ruble, Russia
