Wall Street Journal (September 10)
“Mario Draghi laid out the European Central Bank’s latest bond-buying venture Thursday, and we suppose the good news is that it isn’t as sweeping as it might have been.” Still, it amounts to “another giant step into fiscal policy. This is far from the original vision of the euro, and the costs to the central bank’s political independence will be steep.” Furthermore, the benefits are marginal. “At best, the new program will give Messrs. Monti and Rajoy more time to promote the reforms in labor markets, taxation and other things their countries so desperately need to grow again.”
Tags: Bond-buying, ECB, euro, Fiscal policy, Italy, Mario Draghi, Monti, Rajoy, Spain
Financial Times (May 30)
“US benchmark borrowing costs plunged to levels last seen in 1946 and those for Germany and the UK hit all-time lows as investors took fright at what they see as a disjointed policy response to the debt crisis in Spain and Italy.” Ten year yields fell to 1.62% on U.S. Treasuries and to 1.64% on UK gilts, the lowest since the start of recordkeeping in 1703. Meanwhile, yields on two-year German bunds hit zero, another first.
Euromoney (May 21)
As the European currency crisis continues to unfold, the spotlight shifts. “Spain’s economic political future hangs in the balance, as fears over Greece’s exit from the eurozone leave the credibility of its financial stabilization plans in tatters without urgent redress from eurozone policymakers.” And if Spain falls to contagion, there’s no telling where the downward spiral will end, though Italy would probably be the next to fall.
Boston Herald (May 13)Boston Herald (May 13)
“The failure of any party to form a new government following Greek national elections means the end of the euro currency there is almost a certainty. Thus dies the illusion that a common European currency would cure all ills…. Greece faces a grim future.” For Italy, Spain, Portugal and the rest of Europe “nothing is certain.”
“The failure of any party to form a new government following Greek national elections means the end of the euro currency there is almost a certainty. Thus dies the illusion that a common European currency would cure all ills…. Greece faces a grim future.” For Italy, Spain, Portugal and the rest of Europe “nothing is certain.”
The Economist (May 12)
“Amid growing risk of a Greek exit, the euro zone has yet to face up to the task of saving the single currency itself…. The idea of a chaotic Greek departure from the euro at a time of Franco-German disunion should terrify everyone it touches…. Like some dreadful joke, the euro needs French reform, German extravagance and Italian political maturity.”
Financial Times (April 27)
The Spanish people were willing to suffer austerity when Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy “sent the people of Spain a message of hope for the future.” Now the hope is gone and “Mr Rajoy finds himself in an impossible situation. For all the talk of European solidarity, the EU has insisted that his deficit-reduction plan should proceed at an excessive pace. This was bound to trigger a popular backlash.” A similar backlash is rising up in Italy and the Netherlands. “Citizens may have been favourable to their initial message of austerity for a higher cause, but they will not tolerate being led into a dead-end.”
Tags: Austerity, Deficit reduction, EU, Italy, Netherlands, Rajoy, Spain
Wall Street Journal (March 28)Wall Street Journal (March 28)
“Squabbling over the difference between €500 billion and €740 billion looks a lot like deck-chair management.” How big should the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) be? Angela Merkel now supports expanding the bailout fund to €700 billion from €500 billion. The European Commission seeks even more. “Even if the ESM had the €940 billion that the Commission wants, the fund still won’t likely be big enough to save Spain and Italy if they end up asking for rescue. The financing needs of Madrid and Rome alone are likely to top €1.2 trillion over the next two years.” “Squabbling over the difference between €500 billion and €740 billion looks a lot like deck-chair management.” How big should the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) be? The current €500 billion appears insufficient. Angela Merkel now supports expanding the bailout fund to €700 billion from €500 billion. The European Commission seeks even more. “Even if the ESM had the €940 billion that the Commission wants, the fund still won’t likely be big enough to save Spain and Italy if they end up asking for rescue. The financing needs of Madrid and Rome alone are likely to top €1.2 trillion over the next two years.”
Washington Post (September 27)
“If Europe goes bankrupt, taking the rest of the world down with it, it won’t be for a lack of ideas about how to fix the continent’s sovereign-debt mess.” Yet, Germany has applied the brake to any number of fixes. It looks like the price for this inaction will be “a brutal, global recession.” Hopefully, Europe’s leaders can still avert this by demonstrating “clearly and convincingly that they have a plan for restructuring insolvent countries (e.g., Greece) while shoring up salvageable ones (e.g., Italy and Spain).”
The New York Times (September 12)
Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman believes “the euro is now at risk of collapse.” He warns that “we’re not talking about a crisis that will unfold over a year or two; this thing could come apart in a matter of days. And if it does, the whole world will suffer.” To avoid “an impeccable disaster,” Krugman believes the European Central Bank (ECB) must “lend freely and cut rates.” In addition, the ECB should be “buying up Spanish and Italian debt — that is, doing what these countries would be doing for themselves if they still had their own currencies.”
The Economist (August 20)
Europe’s leaders and, in particular, Angela Merkel correctly sense the lack of domestic support needed to fix the euro zone crisis. What they overlook is the need to cultivate this support. Half-measures will not work and a euro zone collapse would be damaging. “The current rescue plan for the euro is just not working. The markets continue to price in default…. A year ago it was said that the euro zone could take care of two or three small countries but that Spain was too big to fail. Today, with Italy and even France looming into the picture, the very survival of the euro is coming into question.”
