South China Morning Post (July 11)
“The Asia-Pacific region has outpaced other regions in terms of wealth growth since 2008,” During the past 15 years, “wealth in the region has grown by nearly 177 per cent…. The Americas came in second at nearly 146 per cent, while Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) saw the slowest growth at 44 per cent.”
Washington Post (July 9)
The Sahm Rule is considered “the best available recession indicator.” From its nadir, the unemployment rate has risen nearly half a percentage point, which is the rule’s threshold signifying a new recession. “This indicator is flashing a warning sign for the United States. It doesn’t indicate a recession will definitely happen soon, but it is an important wake-up call, and the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention.”
Tags: Attention spans, Fed, Indicator, Nadir, Recession, Sahm Rule, U.S., Unemployment rate, Wake-up call, Warning sign
New York Times (July 9)
“The environment for building renewable energy projects has become much tougher since the coronavirus pandemic. According to industry estimates, the costs of developing an offshore wind farm — large ones run to billions of dollars — have risen 40 percent in recent years because of higher material and labor costs and interest rates.”
Tags: 0%, 4%, Building, Coronavirus pandemic, Costs, Developing, Environment, Interest rates, Labor, Material, Offshore, Renewable energy, Tougher, Wind farm
CNN (July 7)
“Macron’s gamble has kept the far right out of power, but plunged France into chaos.” His “explosive gamble” brought a surprise result. A left-wing alliance came “in first with 182 seats” while the far-right trailed “in third place – a shocking reversal of last Sunday’s first-round results.” Despite the visible relief at pulling “back from the brink,” France appears certain to “enter a prolonged period of instability as three opposing blocs with competing ideas and agendas try to form coalition or find themselves stuck in a state of paralysis.”
Tags: Brink, Chaos, Coalition, Far right, France, Gamble, Instability, Left-wing alliance, Macron, Power, Relief, Reversal, Surprise
MarketWatch (July 6)
“The bond market has enjoyed relatively limited volatility in the first half of 2024, but that calm could be disrupted by growing worry about the U.S. fiscal outlook ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. Of all the wild cards in the months ahead for the $27 trillion Treasury market… a rising U.S. government deficit is regarded as perhaps the greatest long-term risk facing the market right now because of its potential to translate into higher volatility during the second half.”
Tags: $27 trillion, 2024, Bond market, Deficit, Fiscal outlook, Growing worry, H1, H2, Market, Presidential election, Risk, Treasury market, U.S., Volatility
Bloomberg (July 5)
“Donald Trump’s growing lead in the US presidential race has sparked a rush to identify the key winning trades in global markets. History suggests that Japanese stocks are a good bet.” Some strategists think “the boost from a weak yen will give Japanese shares a leg up, just as funds seek alternatives to Chinese equities in anticipation of a tougher Trump stance toward Beijing.”
Tags: Alternative, Chinese equities, Global markets, Good bet, History, Japanese stocks, Lead, Presidential race, Strategists, Trump, U.S., Weak yen, Winning trades
The Economist (July 5)
“The coalition that Boris Johnson built in 2019, on a promise to ‘get Brexit done,’ has exploded. Labour cut deep into Conservative territory” in “one of the most successful corporate turnarounds in British political history,” reducing the Conservative Party to just 126 seats. “Labour’s landslide victory will turn politics on its head. But even with a majority this big, running bad-tempered Britain will not be easy.”
Tags: 2019, Bad-tempered, Brexit, Conservative Party, Exploded, Johnson, Labour, Landslide victory, Political history, Successful, Turnaround, UK
Washington Post (July 4)
“Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index closed Thursday at a fresh record high of 40,913.65, pushing past its most recent record close set in March on heavy buying of automaker and technology shares…. Both foreign and domestic investors have piled into the Japanese market in recent months even as the economy has slowed.” The weak yen is “part of the attraction…. But changes to investment regulations have also lured many Japanese investors into the equity market.”
Tags: Automaker, Domestic, Economy, Foreign, Heavy buying, Investors, Japan, Market, Nikkei 225, Record high, Shares, Technology, Weak yen
Institutional Investor (July 3)
“In the often dogmatic debate over whether using environmental, social, and governance factors helps or hurts investment returns, neither side is going to cheer the findings of a recent Preqin report: ESG didn’t matter.” The analysis of 11,000 funds found “average performance of ESG funds was 13.5 percent, compared with 15.0 percent for all private capital funds,” a difference that is not statistically significant. Moreover, “the results were similar even after accounting for different asset classes.”
Tags: 13.5%, 15.0%, Asset classes, Debate, Dogmatic, ESG funds, Helps, Hurts, Investment returns, Performance, Preqin, Private capital
Market Watch (July 1)
“So far, high valuations haven’t dimmed investors’ enthusiasm for stocks,” but there are concerns. The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P500 “currently stands at 21.1, above the 90th percentile from the past 40 years. The S&P 500 is even more richly valued on a trailing 12-month basis. In the past, when valuations have been this stretched, the median one-year forward return for the index has been -4%.”
Tags: 4%, Concerns, Dimmed, Enthusiasm, Forward P/E, Forward return, High, Investors, Rich, S&P 500, Stocks, Stretched, Valuations
