Financial Times (March 10)
“Policymakers at the Bank of Japan are tackling a series of thorny policy debates as they confront the practicalities of raising interest rates for the first time since the summer of 2006.” Despite signaling the “unprecedented era of cheap money” could end with a rate increase as early as March, the BoJ “still faces a number of challenging decisions about how to leave negative rates behind without causing turmoil for global markets and Japanese lenders.”
Tags: 2006, BOJ, Cheap money, Confront, Global markets, Japan, Lenders, March, Negative rates, Policy debates, Policymakers, Practicalities, Thorny, Turmoil, Unprecedented era
Reuters (February 15)
“Japan’s journey back to normality has just taken an unwelcome turn. The world’s third-largest economy in U.S. dollar terms ceded the title to Germany on Thursday” as Japan simultaneously slipped into a recession. “More unnerving is a slew of weak data making it harder for the Bank of Japan to justify hiking rates and officially ending its era of ultra-easy monetary policy.”
Tags: BOJ, Economy, Germany, Japan, Monetary policy, Normality, Rates, Recession, Third-largest, U.S., Unnerving, Uultra-easy, Weak data
Financial Times (November 15)
“One of Asia’s sleepiest investment sectors has outperformed tech stocks.” Share prices have soared at Japanese banks and their earnings now “confirm the prescience of that rally…. Earnings at Japan’s five biggest banking groups rose 56 per cent to a record of about ¥2tn ($13bn).” Higher spreads and buybacks are part of the equation, “but the biggest driver of the rally has been rising hopes that the central bank may end its ultra-easy monetary policy soon.”
Tags: Asia, Banks, BOJ, Buybacks, Earnings, Investment, Japan, Outperformed, Rally, Share prices, Soared, Spreads, Tech stocks
Bloomberg (October 31)
“Japan’s central bank insists it still wants to cap long-term market rates,” but their “actions suggest officials are losing the stomach for it.” Kazuo Ueda is dismantling “the cumbersome legacy of his predecessor… more rapidly” than expected “when he took the helm of the Bank of Japan.” Nevertheless, BOJ officials are insisting that the “policy is only being tweaked.” This threatens “the credibility of its communications” as “key parts of the BOJ’s entire approach to setting borrowing costs are being removed or watered down.”
Tags: BOJ, Cap, Central bank, Credibility, Cumbersome, Japan, Legacy, Long term, Market rates, Officials, Predecessor, Threatens, Ueda
Bloomberg (September 21)
“The value of the yen has slumped to the lowest on record, as measured against a broad basket of its peers and adjusted for inflation,” the Bank for International Settlements found based on data from 1970 onward. This serves to “underscore the pressure on the Bank of Japan to normalize its ultra-easy monetary regime, which continues to weigh down the nation’s interest rates and weaken the currency. The drop in the so-called real effective exchange rate means Japanese have to pay more for imported goods and services at a time when wage growth is failing to compensate for inflation.”
Tags: BIS, BOJ, Currency, Imports, Inflation adjusted, Interest rates, Japan, Normalize, Pressure, Real effective exchange rate, Record, Slumped, Ultra-easy, Wage growth, Yen
Financial Times (February 19)
The Bank of Japan’s “ultra-loose policy is now on a somewhat pre-determined path — towards (if not quite through) the exit door.” The impact of investment flows retreating to Japan may be “most significant for the US Treasury market, where Japan is the largest single foreign holder.” But Japanese investors also hold sizeable market shares “in Australia, New Zealand and parts of western Europe. A shift in policy under Ueda will matter not just for Japan, but for pockets of global debt markets, too.”
Tags: Australia, BOJ, Europe, Exit, Impact, Investment flows, Investors, Japan, Market shares, New Zealand, Retreating, Sizeable, Treasury, U.S., Ueda, Ultra-loose policy
Financial Times (January 21)
“In a country where companies have resisted raising pay and the workforce has refrained from aggressive salary demands for most of the past three decades, Fast Retailing’s move is a watershed for the government and the Bank of Japan’s battle to lift the economy out of deflation.” Should the approach gain momentum, “the ramifications could be far-reaching,” potentially leading to “a virtuous cycle of rising wages, consumption and prices” that “would allow Japan to finally move away from the negative interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policies.”
Tags: BOJ, Consumption, Deflation, Demands, Economy, Fast Retailing, Interest rates, Japan, Prices, Raising pay, Rising wages, Salary, Ultra-loose, Virtuous cycle, Watershed, Workforce
Financial Times (January 14)
“Since the Bank of Japan stunned markets by widening the band of its yield curve control (YCC) policy on December 20, markets feel things are now moving tectonically for one of the developed world’s most unorthodox financial regimes.” At long last, the ‘widow-maker’ trade “is making money. On Friday and for the first time in almost a decade, yields on the benchmark 10-year JGB rose to 0.53 per cent and, critically, outside the BoJ’s target band in defiance of its ever more desperate efforts to fight the market.”
Tags: 10-year, Benchmark, BOJ, Control, Defiance, Desperate, Financial regimes, JGB, Markets, Target band, Widow-maker trade, Yield curve, Yields
Wall Street Journal (January 10)
“Based on the growth of the money supply, Japan clearly fails to qualify as ultra-loose. On the contrary, it has been ultra-tight for decades.” Based on the quantity theory of money and Milton Friedman’s insights, “that tightness put Japan right where anyone… would expect: with ultra-low inflation.” That’s right, “Japan’s ultra-low inflation rates have been the result of ultra-tight, not ‘ultra-loose,’ monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s attraction to this fallacy has resulted in Japan’s lost decades.”
Tags: BOJ, Fallacy, Friedman, Growth, Japan, Lost decades, Monetary policy, Money supply, Rates, Ultra-loose, Ultra-low inflation, Ultra-tight
Bloomberg (December 20)
“It is hard to overemphasize the importance of” the BOJ’s latest “policy change. Starved of yield domestically and with the yen on a vicious weakening trend, Japanese investors have turned to bond markets elsewhere where yields are higher…. This change in policy is likely to make the yen much less of a one-way bet.”
Tags: BOJ, Bond markets, Importance, Investors, Japan, Policy change, Weakening trend, Yen, Yield
