Reuters (July 22)
“China’s hardened rhetoric against price wars among producers is raising expectations Beijing may be about to kick off industrial capacity cuts in a long-awaited, but challenging, campaign against deflation that carries risks to economic growth.” Such a campaign would “echo” similar successful “reforms a decade ago to reduce the production of steel, cement, glass and coal, which were crucial to ending a period of 54 consecutive months of falling factory gate prices.” Success may prove elusive this round. “The fight against deflation will be much more complicated and poses risks to employment and growth” while U.S. trade war ”is intensifying price wars, squeezing factory profits.”
Tags: Beijing, Cement, China, Coal, Complicated, Deflation, Economic growth, Employment, Expectations, Glass, Growth, Industrial capacity, Price wars, Producers, Rhetoric, Risks, Steel, Trade war, U.S.
Market Watch (July 14)
In contrast with previous guidance, Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. home prices to grow only 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% the following year, “a huge drop from the growth the market saw during the pandemic.” Goldman cited “three big reasons for its pessimism regarding home prices: slowing prices, rising housing supply and persistently high mortgage rates.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Drop, Goldman Sachs, Growth, Guidance, Home prices, Housing supply, Market, Pandemic, Pessimism, Slowing, U.S.
The Economist (July 11)
“Growth is abysmal; wages are low. But seen from the outside, Britain is a great place to contract services and buy bargain-basement bonds.”
Tags: Abysmal, Bargain-basement, Bonds, Britain, Buy, Contract services, Growth, Low, Wages
Washington Post (June 25)
“Governments around the world are scrambling for ways, often at great fiscal cost, to slow or even reverse their baby busts. From cash incentives to paid leave, the results have been disappointing.” They would do better to quit fighting and focus on adaptation. After 17 years of population decline, Japan “now offers a surprisingly hopeful counter that an aging economy can still offer growth and prosperity.” Recent analysis by Goldman Sachs found that in Japan “the demographic decline that once drained vitality is now creating a ‘virtuous cycle’ of tightening labor markets, increased worker bargaining power and more investment in productivity-enhancing tech. These trends are helping prop up the economy even as it weathers a shock from the U.S.-led trade war.”
Tags: Adaptation, Aging economy, Baby busts, Cash incentives, Cost, Demographic decline, Goldman Sachs, Governments, Growth, Investment, Labor markets, Paid leave, Population, Prosperity, Reverse, Scrambling, Tech, Virtuous cycle
Impact Investor (May 20)
“Place-based investing strategies are emerging as powerful tools for driving growth, climate resilience, and social progress, particularly in the UK, where institutional allocations have increased substantially.”
Tags: Allocations, Climate resilience, Emerging, Growth, Institutional, Place-based investing, Powerful tools, Social progress, Strategies, UK
Wall Street Journal (April 3)
“The tariffs Trump announced would lift the average duty above the previous peak of 1930. It is by far the most disruptive component of an agenda that may be one of the most disruptive of any new president since the 1930s, one that includes slashing immigration, government spending, taxes and regulations.” The timing for all this is striking. “The economy he inherited was the envy of the world with growth of 2.8% last year, faster than almost every other major developed economy, an unemployment rate of just 4.1% and inflation of 2.8%. Stocks were at record highs.”
Tags: 1930, Disruptive, Duty, Economy, Government spending, Growth, Immigration, Inflation, Regulations, Stocks, Tariffs, Taxes, Timing, Trump, Unemployment
New York Times (March 11)
“A new round of tariffs on aluminum and steel went into effect overnight. This time, no U.S. trading partner was spared.” The EU will respond with “$28 billion in retaliatory levies next month on American products, including bourbon, jeans and agricultural products.” While EU officials “hope they can still strike a deal…. President Trump seems determined to stick with his protectionist policies.” Immediate market reaction was muted, though “the sell-off has wiped roughly $4 trillion off the benchmark index in less than a month — as concerns grow that the levies will push up prices and slow growth.”
Tags: $4 trillion, Agricultural products, Aluminum, Bourbon, EU, Growth, Jeans, Market reaction, Prices, Protectionist policies, Retaliatory levies, Sell-off, Steel, Tariffs, Trading partner, Trump, U.S.
Reuters (March 10)
“Wall Street futures sank and the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc strengthened early on Monday as building deflationary pressures in China added to growth worries from a fading U.S. economy and an escalating global trade war.”
Tags: China, Deflationary pressures, Economy, Escalating, Fading, Futures, Global trade war, Growth, Safe haven, Strengthened, Swiss franc, U.S., Wall Street, Worries, Yen
Barron’s (December 23)
Brazil ends 2024 in a paradox. The economy is strong with GDP expected to “reach 3% for the third year running. Unemployment is at a record low and the trade surplus at an all-time high.” Nevertheless, “markets are awful.” Investors appear to be “looking past the healthy present to a recurrence of Brazil’s chronic economic disease: excessive government spending that spurs runaway inflation and crowds out growth with debt payments.”
Tags: 2024, Brazil, Chronic, Debt payments, Economy, GDP, Government spending, Growth, Investors, Markets, Paradox, Recurrence, Runaway inflation, Trade surplus, Unemployment
Trader’s Magazine (December 2)
“Assets of the top 100 asset owners globally have returned to growth in 2023 after a fall of 8.7% in 2022.” Achieving a brisk 12.3% increase in 2023, “the world’s largest 100 asset owners (the ‘AO100’) now hold a record US$26.3 trillion.” Chief among them is the “Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan…with an AUM of US$1.59 trillion.” The top three also includes the two largest sovereign wealth funds. Norway’s Norges Bank Investment Management in second place with AUM of US$1.55 trillion while China Investment Corporation is now third globally with US$1.24 trillion.”
Tags: 12.3%, 2023, Assets, AUM, China, Government Pension Investment Fund, Growth, Japan, Norway, Record, Top 100, US$26.3 trillion
