New York Times (February 2)
The “disconnect” between cautious Fed statements and “investor expectations” is rooted in the tension between current data and projections. “Many forecasters expect the labor market, as well as inflation in many kinds of services, to weaken this year as the full effect of the Fed’s rate moves plays out; the Fed, on the other hand, is waiting for clearer signs in the data.”
Tags: Data, Disconnect, Expectations, Fed, Forecasters, Inflation, Investor, Labor market, Projections, Rates, Services, Tension
Wall Street Journal (January 10)
“Based on the growth of the money supply, Japan clearly fails to qualify as ultra-loose. On the contrary, it has been ultra-tight for decades.” Based on the quantity theory of money and Milton Friedman’s insights, “that tightness put Japan right where anyone… would expect: with ultra-low inflation.” That’s right, “Japan’s ultra-low inflation rates have been the result of ultra-tight, not ‘ultra-loose,’ monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s attraction to this fallacy has resulted in Japan’s lost decades.”
Tags: BOJ, Fallacy, Friedman, Growth, Japan, Lost decades, Monetary policy, Money supply, Rates, Ultra-loose, Ultra-low inflation, Ultra-tight
CNN (September 29)
“Mortgage rates surged for the sixth week in a row, moving closer to 7%. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.70% in the week ending September 29, up from 6.29% the week before…. That’s the highest level since July 2007.” Amid soaring inflation and aggressive moves by the Fed, “mortgage rates have more than doubled since the start of this year.”
Tags: 30-year, 7%, Aggressive, Doubled, Fed, Fixed-rate, Highest, Inflation, Mortgage, Rates, Surged
Bloomberg (August 19)
“The US mortgage industry is seeing its first lenders go out of business after a sudden spike in lending rates, and the wave of failures that’s coming could be the worst since the housing bubble burst about 15 years ago.” Though a “systemic meltdown” is not expected, market watchers still anticipate “a string of bankruptcies broad enough to trigger a spike in layoffs in an industry that employs hundreds of thousands of workers, and potentially an increase in some lending rates.”
Tags: Bankruptcies, Failures, Housing bubble, Industry, Layoffs, Lenders, Market, Mortgage, Rates, Spike, Systemic meltdown, U.S.
Bloomberg (June 15)
The Federal Reserve “must do more than raise rates by 75 points.” It needs to “regain control of the inflation narrative to avoid inflicting more economic damage and to restore its credibility.”
Tags: 75 points, Credibility, Economic damage, Fed, Inflation narrative, Raise, Rates, Regain control, Restore
Northern Trust Advisor Perspectives (June 8)
“Inflation across advanced economies has increased to rates not seen in multiple decades. Japan, where the headline consumer price index rose by only 2.5% for the twelve months ending in April, stands as an exception.” Though this “appears moderate… it is very high for a country where a generation has never seen sustained price increases. Japan’s inflation has averaged only 0.3% in the past three decades.”
Tags: Advanced economies, CPI, Exception, Generation, Increased, Inflation, Japan, Moderate, Price increases, Rates
New York Times (November 4)
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a tapering of stimulus programs, but he did not “lay the groundwork for higher rates.” That doesn’t mean “the era of near-zero rates will last anything close to as long as it did after the global financial crisis,” but if the current inflation surge “proves something other than temporary, Mr. Powell’s decision to stick to his guns” on interest rates “will loom as a missed moment to join other English-speaking countries in using monetary policy to try to stamp it out.”
Tags: Fed, Global financial crisis, Inflation, Interest, Monetary policy, Near-zero, Powell, Rates, Stimulus, Surge, Tapering
MarketWatch (March 28)
“Despite the upbeat note that the final full week in March delivered, strategists and market participants were chirping about a major block trade in the final minutes of Friday trading that could portend further stress on the market, which has been subject to bouts of turbulence as rising interest rates amid the rollout of COVID vaccines and a $1.9 trillion aid package complicate the financial outlook.”
Tags: Block trade, Covid, March, Market, Rates, Rollout, Strategists, Stress, Turbulence, Upbeat, Vaccines
Reuters (March 23)
“China is consciously uncoupling from Western peers on rates. Its central bank has held lending benchmarks steady as global peers slash…. The People’s Bank of China’s relative immobility has surprised many economists…. The spread between 10-year Chinese government bonds and U.S. Treasuries is nearly two percentage points, its widest since 2015.”
Tags: Benchmarks, Central bank, China, Economists, PBOC, Rates, Spread, Steady, U.S., Uncoupling, Western
Chicago Tribune (September 7)
“Homeowners located in areas that are expected to flood every 100 years are required to buy flood insurance…. But they pay rates far lower than the risks warrant. That gap deprives builders of incentives to stay out of low-lying areas that are vulnerable to flooding — or to elevate structures to keep them dry when the waters rise. It also promotes the destruction of wetlands that could reduce flooding. Oh, and it helps to tilt migration toward vulnerable coastal regions like those of Texas and Florida.”
Tags: Builders, Coastal regions, Destruction, Flood, Florida, Homeowners, Insurance, Rates, Texas, Vulnerable, Wetlands
