The Economist (August 20)
The Bank of Japan expects “prices will rise by 2.3% in the current fiscal year. That would be the first time prices outstrip the bank’s 2% target since it was introduced in 2013, excluding the impact of sales-tax hikes. The covid-19 pandemic and commodity shocks from the war in Ukraine seem to have done what years of loose monetary policy could not.”
Tags: 2.3%, 2013, BOJ, Commodity, COVID-19, Pandemic, Prices, Rise, Sales-tax hikes, Shocks, Target, Ukraine, War
Financial Times (July 4)
“If the BoJ sticks to its guns while the US Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the yield divergence could spell a further collapse in the yen beyond the 24-year low. But if the BoJ moves to tweak its monetary policy, or if a global recession prompts a U-turn in US interest rates and a flight to safe havens, it could trigger an abrupt reversal.”
Tags: 24-year low, BOJ, Collapse, Divergence, Global recession, Interest rates, Japan, Monetary policy, Reversal, Safe havens, U.S.. Fed, Yen, Yield
Bloomberg (June 8)
“It’s not like inflation is out of control in Japan. Far from it. Consumer prices rose 2.1% in April from a year earlier, finally reaching the BOJ’s target.” Nevertheless, “after a generation of ultra-low prices, Kuroda may not have appreciated how hard it is for Japanese to embrace something they haven’t had to deal with.” In April, fresh fish and vegetables rose by 12%, “including a nearly 100% increase in the cost of onions. Talk about eye watering.” The BOJ has worked for nearly three decades “to crank up inflation from dangerously low levels. How galling that Japan may not even want it.”
Tags: BOJ, Consumer prices, Dangerously low, Eye watering, Fish, Galling, Inflation, Japan, Kuroda, Onions, Vegetables
Reuters (April 1)
In March, the Japanese yen “lost around 8% against the dollar… dropping to a six-year low below 125 on Monday.” Some believe that level “raises alarm among Japanese authorities, as a previous drop to that level triggered verbal warnings by BOJ’s Kuroda.” However, in terms of the “real, effective exchange rate—an indicator that captures the international competitiveness of a currency,” the yen is performing even worse, having “slid to less than half” of 1995’s peak.
Tags: 1995, Alarm, Authorities, BOJ, Currency, Dollar, Effective exchange rate, Indicator, International competitiveness, Japan, Kuroda, Low, March, Verbal warnings, Yen
Reuters (April 29)
“There’s an end to everything except, apparently, central bankers’ creativity. Virus-damaged economies will need lots of help to heal, and more downturns are inevitable in the future. The monetary-policy bigwigs will keep coming up with more new ways to stimulate growth.” The Fed and BoE may “eventually overcome their aversion to negative interest rates” and/or “copy Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda’s yield-curve control policy of targeting specific levels for 10-year government bond yields.”
Tags: BOE, BOJ, Creativity, Damaged, Downturns, Economies, Fed, Growth, Heal, Kuroda, Monetary policy, Negative interest, Virus, Yield curve
Reuters (May 16)
“Years of heavy money printing by the BOJ have pushed down long-term interest rates near zero, adding to a squeeze on margins for Japan’s regional banks already suffering from a dwindling population and weak loan demand.”
Tags: BOJ, Dwindling population, Interest rates, Japan, Loan demand, Margins, Money supply, Regional banks
Reuters (July 29)
“The Bank of Japan meets on Tuesday and might be doing some ‘jinarashi’ i.e. preparing markets for some changes to its unique, ultra-loose monetary policy.” With five years of mixed results, as well as “a global trade war now threatening trouble for its big exporters and zero interest rates hurting its banks, the BOJ seems to have recognized that something needs to give.”
Tags: BOJ, Exporters, Global trade war, Japan, Jinarashi, Mixed results, Monetary policy, Ultra-loose, Zero interest rates
Reuters (April 6)
On top of February’s big drop in household spending, down 0.9% from a year earlier, “separate data showed wages fell for the third straight month in February, reinforcing the view the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent inflation target will remain a distant goal and keep the bank from dialing back stimulus any time soon.”
Tags: BOJ, Data, February, Household spending, Inflation target, Stimulus, Wages
Bloomberg (January 12)
“Since Kuroda took office five years ago, bank stocks have underperformed the broader market by more than 50 percentage points,” but there are signs that Japanese banks will soon lose their “cheapest in the world” status. Despite a 5.7% average ROE, large Japanese financial institutions trade at just 0.69 of book. If, as widely expected, the BoJ relaxes its yield curve control, these large financial institutions would receive a welcome boost.
Tags: BOJ, Japanese banks, Kuroda, ROE, Stocks, Underperformed, Yield curve
Reuters (August 22)
Deflation “has hobbled Japan’s economy for nearly two decades, bedevilling policymakers despite drastic measures aimed at engineering a sustainable recovery.” For the sixth time, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has delayed its 2% inflation target. This time until March 2020. Still, two-thirds of respondents in an August 1-16 Reuters Corporate Survey “saw the inflation goal as unrealistic,” with many of their responses further illustrating the complexities involved in overcoming deflation.
Tags: BOJ, Complexities, Deflation, Delay, Economy, Hobbled, Inflation, Japan, Policymakers, Recovery, Respondents, Survey, Unrealistic
