Institutional Investor (August Issue)
Over the past decade, Brazil produced stellar returns. Internal strife and the looming tapering by the Federal Reserve are now, however, disrupting the long favorable investment environment. “Brazilian investors have not faced such uncertainty for many years. The country attracted investment because it appeared to be one of the most dynamic and politically stable emerging markets. The return of volatility will tax the ingenuity of Brazil’s money managers.”
Tags: Brazil, Dynamic, Emerging markets, Fed, Investment, Money manager, Returns, Stable, Tapering, Uncertainty, Volatility
The Economist (August 24)
Since the U.S. Federal Reserve intimated that it would begin tapering its quantitative easing program in 2013, “there has been a great sucking of funds from emerging markets. Currencies and shares have tumbled, from Brazil to Indonesia, but one country has been particularly badly hit.” India is looking less like “an economic miracle” and more like a country teetering on the verge of a full-blown crisis. “The rupee has tumbled by 13% in three months. The stockmarket is down by a quarter in dollar terms. Borrowing rates are at levels last seen after Lehman Brothers’ demise. Bank shares have sunk.”
Tags: Banks, Brazil, Crisis, Currencies, Emerging markets, Fed, India, Indonesia, Lehman Brothers, Miracle, Quantitative easing, Rupee, Shares, Stockmarket, Tapering, U.S.
Washington Post (July 17)
With China’s economy decelerating, “ the world waits to see if it will make hard reforms. “Most big developing countries — China, India, Brazil, South Africa — have slowed down in the past few years. In almost all cases, the cause was the same. When their the economies were booming, these countries’ leaders avoided tough decisions. China had been the exception to this rule. But now it faces its biggest test…. If it fails, well, China becomes just another emerging market with a model that worked for a while.”
Tags: Boom, Brazil, China, Decelerating, Decisions, Developing countries, Economy, Emerging market, India, Leaders, Reforms, South Africa
The Economist (June 29)
“Over the past few weeks, in one country after another, protesters have risen up with bewildering speed. They have been more active in democracies than dictatorships. They tend to be ordinary, middle-class people, not lobbies with lists of demands. Their mix of revelry and rage condemns the corruption, inefficiency and arrogance of the folk in charge.” Whether it’s Brazil, Turkey, Sweden, Bulgaria, India or elsewhere, politicians should beware.
Tags: Brazil, Bulgaria, Corruption, Democracies, Dictatorships, India, Inefficiency, Middle class, Politicians, Protesters, Rage, Revelry, Sweden, Turkey
Barron’s (November 5)
“It has been an eventful year in Brazil, though perhaps not in the way investors would have liked. The country’s growth has stalled to an expected 1.5% this year—a figure not exactly befitting an emerging market, especially one that not so long ago had been growing at four times that rate.” Despite the bad economic news, however, four experts assembled at a Barron’s roundtable believe Brazil investors have “reason for optimism.”
Tags: Brazil, Emerging market, Growth, Investors, Optimism
Wall Street Journal (February 22, 2012)
“China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned enterprises and making them operate more like commercial firms.” A soon-to-be released report, titled “China 2030,” also warns that “China’s growth is in danger of decelerating rapidly and without much warning.” The report indicates that China, like Brazil and Mexico, will face a “middle-income trap,” which tends to snare developing countries that reach a threshold income level.
“China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned enterprises and making them operate more like commercial firms.” A soon-to-be released report, titled “China 2030,” also warns that “China’s growth is in danger of decelerating rapidly and without much warning.” The report indicates that China, like Brazil and Mexico, will face a “middle-income trap,” which tends to snare developing countries that reach a threshold income level.
The Economist (September 3)
Japan’s not alone in living with an overvalued currency. The commodities “boom has lifted the Australian dollar by more than 43% since the start of 2009” and “pushed up Brazil’s real by even more.” Switzerland escaped this boom, but it’s blessed (or cursed) “with a commodity prized more than iron ore or soyabeans in uncertain times: safety.” As a result the Swiss franc has shot upward. Policymakers in all three countries are concerned, but efforts to weaken their currencies have born little fruit. “Instead of trying to prevent a rise in the currency, countries can, of course, learn to live with it.”
The Economist (June 2)
“For most Brazilians life has never been so good.” Brazil’s economy has become the envy of others, but success could be its undoing. “Many of Brazil’s economic officials now have an air of smugness about them, as they argue that the rest of the world has more to learn from Brazil than vice versa.”In fact, Brazil has both pressing short-term problems, most notably inflation, and long-term structural problems such as pension reform. Because these issues require immediate attention, “the timing of such complacency could not be worse.” As the economy overheats, “the government is stalling on a deeper reform agenda that is essential to boost Brazil’s long-term growth and fiscal stability.”
Economist (September 23)
There is hope for the world’s forests. Nations known for chopping down trees “have started to hug them.” For example, Brazil’s deforestation rate dropped from 2.8 million hectares in 2004 to 750,000 hectares in 2009. The “progress made in recent years shows that mankind is not doomed to strip the planet of its forest cover.” Yet the change “is not happening fast enough,” leading the Economist to call for quick action.
Tags: Brazil, Deforestation, Environment, Forests
