Financial Times (November 24)
“A careful, calibrated fiscal adjustment to return a government to sustainability is one thing. A brutish insistence on running surpluses well into the future is quite another.” The EU should avoid “choking off a nascent recovery in the Greek economy and setting back the cause of reducing its debt burden.”
Tags: Calibrated, Careful, Debt burden, EU, Fiscal, Government, Greek economy, Recovery, Surpluses
Reuters (October 18)
International sanctions are hitting Russia hard. “Though the Kremlin shows no sign of backing down, it remains unclear whether Russia’s struggling economy can support its global aspirations. Moscow’s 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine sparked a major recession. Economists have been looking in vain for signs of recovery ever since.”
Tags: Economists, Economy, Global aspirations, Kremlin, Moscow, Recession, Recovery, Russia, Sanctions, Struggling, Ukraine
Washington Post (August 15)
“A great mystery of our time — one that should frame the campaign debate — is why the economic recovery has been so sluggish…. Either economic policy let us down or the economy has become less robust. Maybe both.”
Institutional Investor (July 29)
U.S. REITs have soared on a “torrid rally.” Though the momentum will slow, strong fundamentals should underpin the sector, which is also benefiting from negative interest overseas. “The economy’s seven-year recovery should sustain real estate demand.” Moreover, “banks’ conservative real estate-lending policies in the wake of massive losses during the financial crisis should continue to limit supply.”
Tags: Banks, Demand, Financial Crisis, Fundamentals, Lending, Negative interest, Rally, Real estate, Recovery, REITs, Supply, U.S.
Institutional Investor (July 18)
Following a tumultuous weekend with a failed coup, another police officer shooting in the U.S., and continuing Brexit worries, investors may want to consider “whether security and geopolitical threats to stability will undermine the impact of aggressive easing actions of the world’s central banks. A recovery in the Turkish lira and global equity indices and a retreat in gold prices, seemingly fueled by the coup’s failure, suggests that at least some parts of the market believe central bank policymakers still trump security threats when it comes to financial asset valuation.”
Tags: Asset valuation, Brexit, Central banks, Easing, Equities, Failed coup, Geopolitical threats, Gold, Investors, Lira, Police, Recovery, Security, Shooting, Stability, Threats, Tumultuous, Turkey, U.S., Worries
Washington Post (June 21)
“These days, America’s recovery looks vulnerable to a lot of scary economic shocks. Most of these come from abroad…. But right now, the single biggest threat to the U.S. economy is the risk of a President Donald J. Trump.”
Washington Post (February 17)
“It’s economists vs. the stock market. Economists generally don’t forecast a recession anytime soon,” but the stock market sure seems to be forecasting one. “Who’s right? We’ll know in a few months. Meanwhile, the dispute highlights the incomplete nature of the present recovery, which has lasted a long time but, to millions of Americans, still feels unsatisfactory.”
Tags: Dispute, Economists, Recession, Recovery, Stock market, U.S., Unsatisfactory
Institutional Investor (November 18)
“Since World War II, the U.S. economy has averaged a recession every five years.” Despite over six years of recovery, it doesn’t look like the U.S. is especially prone to recession because “the catalysts for a downturn aren’t in place.” There’s no real asset bubble, overheating or inflation. A recession is always a risk and can be brought about by unforeseen external shocks. At the moment, however, the risk of a recession looks normal, about 20–25%, for the next 12 months.
Tags: Asset bubble, Economy, External shock, Inflation, Overheating, Recession, Recovery, Risk, U.S., World War II
The Economist (September 12)
“The last time the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate, there was no one to tweet about it.” That was in June 2006 before Twitter’s IPO. “Nine years on, as the Fed readies itself to raise rates again, the public debate between hawks and doves is much noisier.” Even though markets are counting on least one rate rise this year, “it does not pay to go early: a rise now would needlessly risk America’s recovery.”
New York Times (June 12)
“More than five years have passed since European officials reached the first loan agreement with Greece. Yet instead of moving toward recovery, the country has been trapped in an economic calamity with no end in sight.”
Tags: Economic calamity, European, Greece, Loan agreement, Officials, Recovery, Trapped
