Institutional Investor (November 18)
“Since World War II, the U.S. economy has averaged a recession every five years.” Despite over six years of recovery, it doesn’t look like the U.S. is especially prone to recession because “the catalysts for a downturn aren’t in place.” There’s no real asset bubble, overheating or inflation. A recession is always a risk and can be brought about by unforeseen external shocks. At the moment, however, the risk of a recession looks normal, about 20–25%, for the next 12 months.
Tags: Asset bubble, Economy, External shock, Inflation, Overheating, Recession, Recovery, Risk, U.S., World War II
New York Times (July 23)
“To keep commerce going with China, Japan’s most important Asian trading partner, Mr. Abe has to stop rubbing raw the wounds of World War II. That includes not visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, where war criminals from that conflict are honored. Nor should his government divert budget resources into military muscle flexing. Pushing into these politically contentious areas would erode the economic progress and promise of stable political leadership Mr. Abe has just worked so hard to achieve.”
Tags: Abe, Budget, China, Commerce, Conflict, Criminals, Government, Japan, Leadership, Military, Progress, Trading partner, World War II, Yasukuni
