Financial Times (May 25)
News that the cross-border payment system Swift “has at least woken up to the challenge facing its business” is encouraging. “But this is not just a problem involving cross-border deals. Cyber crime is increasingly a threat to the whole financial industry. This is one digital challenge that banks cannot duck.”
Tags: Banks, Cross-border, Cyber crime, Digital challenge, Financial industry, Payments, Swift, Threat
Wall Street Journal (April 290)
Fintech companies like SoFi are doing their “best to turn the banking system upside down.” We may be glimpsing the “Uberization of Banking” if fintech firms succeed in moving “lending away from the big banks and onto your smartphone.”
Tags: Banks, Fintech, Lending, Smartphone, SoFi, Uberization
Financial Times (March 22)
Many hope that negative interest rates will “encourage banks to lend more plentifully and cheaply and help support economic recovery.” This might instead prove “a dangerous experiment with diminishing positive impact.” The optimistic forecasts overlook “how financial intermediaries may actually respond.” Negative rates “erode banks’ margins. They give lenders an incentive to shrink, not grow. They encourage banks to seek out opportunities overseas rather than in their home markets. They also risk disruptions to bank funding. All go against the grain of the central banks’ desire to ease credit conditions and support financial stability.”
Tags: Banks, Credit, Dangerous, Diminishing positive impact, Economic recovery, Experiment, Financial stability, Intermediaries, Lending, Margins, Negative interest rates, Overseas
Bloomberg (February 23)
“For Chinese leaders, the need to prop up faltering GDP growth outweighs fears about a rapid buildup in debt.” New loans from banks were 70% higher in January than a year prior. “Debt now tops 230 percent of GDP and could reach as high as 300 percent of GDP if current trends continue…. Even the Bank for International Settlements, a body not known for hyperbole, has warned that Chinese debt is reaching levels that typically trigger financial crises.”
Institutional Investor (February 18)
“Are currency traders destined for extinction? Their ranks are thinning quickly, as computers take over their tasks and banks pull back from activity in financial markets. The trend is likely to continue and market volatility is likely to increase as a result, analysts say.”
The Economist (October 31)
“Bitcoin’s shady image causes people to overlook the extraordinary potential of the ‘blockchain,’ the technology that underpins it.” Blockchain technology “lets people who have no particular confidence in each other collaborate without having to go through a neutral central authority” and Bitcoin’s innovation carries a significance stretching far beyond cryptocurrency. This “machine for creating trust” could eliminate the need (and cost) for institutions like banks and clearing houses that handle many existing transactions.
Tags: Authority, Banks, Bitcoin, Blockchain, Clearing houses, Confidence, Cryptocurrency, Innovation, Potential, Significance, Technology, Transactions
Financial Times (October 5)
Amidst continuing outflows, emerging markets are much better placed than before the 1997 Asian currency crisis. “Record levels of reserves” should give “troubled countries a window for reform.” Reserves stand roughly 10 times higher than the past crisis. “While no amount of reserves can withstand the loss of market trust, money does buy time. Using reserves to offset capital flight allows central banks temporarily to avoid the classic EM crisis response of tighter monetary policy amid a recession to protect their currency and avoid imported inflation.”
Tags: Asia, Banks, Capital, Crisis, Emerging markets, Market, Monetary policy, Outflows, Recession Inflation, Reform, Reserves
Bloomberg (March 30)
“In order to steer China off its current trajectory, leaders are going to have to tolerate a bigger hit to GDP. They must also quickly build a transfer mechanism to allow banks, state-run enterprises and entire municipalities to dispose of bad loans.” China’s total debt to GDP ratio “now exceeds America’s 269 percent and Germany’s 258 percent. Even more worrying: If the credit buildup continues at its current pace, that ratio will explode to 400 percent by 2018.”
The Economist (October 18)
At 250% of GDP, China has a debt problem. Still, this “is unlikely to cause a sudden crisis or blow up the world economy. That is because China, unlike most other countries, controls its banks and has the means to bail them out.” The lack of crisis may drive China down the same road Japan took in the post-bubble decades. “The biggest risk is complacency: that China’s officials do too little to clean up the financial system, weighing down its economy for years with zombie firms and unpayable loans.”
Tags: Banks, China, Complacency, Crisis, Debt problem, Economy, Financial system, GDP, Japan, Loans, Risk, Zombie
Bloomberg (September 9)
The Federal Reserve is taking a tougher regulatory stance and will require large, systemically important banks to increase their capital. “Given the incentives big banks face, only regulators can ensure they operate with enough capital for their own good — and for the good of society. The Fed still has a long way to go, but at least it’s headed in the right direction.”
Tags: Banks, Capital, Fed, Incentives, Regulators, Society