Institutional Investor (January 20)
“Once again, Chinese growth data takes center stage.” The International Monetary Fund cited China’s slowing growth as a major reason for its latest downward forecast revision. The IMF slashed expected global GDP growth from 3.8% to 3.5% during 2015. “With a global economy still attuned to demand from a rising China, the nation’s economy remains the central theme for macro and micro-focused investors alike.”
Bloomberg (January 19)
“The actions that the European Central Bank will finally announce this week won’t give the continent the boost it needs.” The EU still depends on a “broken” system of economic governance. “What’s remarkable is that Europe’s governments haven’t even begun to confront this larger issue.” It is unrealistic to think that the ECB can again save the day. “Not even Mario Draghi can save Europe now.”
Tags: Broken, ECB, EU, Governance, Governments, Mario Draghi
Washington Post (January 19)
The drop in oil prices is hitting Venezuela, Russia and Iran hard. These “three troublesome nations” rely on energy exports for 68-95% of their external revenue. Venezuela now “appears on the edge of a political chasm. Putin will try to fend off domestic upheaval with more foreign aggression. And Iran will make a fateful choice between forging a lifeline to the United States and Europe and consciously embracing isolation and harsh austerity.”
Tags: Aggression, Austerity, Chasm, Energy, Europe, Exports, Iran, Isolation, Oil prices, Putin, Russia, U.S., Venezuela
The Economist (January 17)
“The fall in the price of oil and gas provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fix bad energy policies.”Governments around the world should “seize” this chance.
Tags: Energy, Gas, Governments, Oil, Opportunity, Policies, Price
Wall Street Journal (January 16)
“The prediction that 2015 will be a year of currency turmoil is already coming true.” On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank roiled markets when it dropped its currency peg. “This won’t be the last currency shock as the world’s big central banks go their own way in frantic attempts to spur a slowing global economy.”
Tags: Central bank, Currency peg, Economy, Prediction, Shock, SNB, Switzerland, Turmoil
Los Angeles Times (January 15)
“For too long, carbon dioxide has dominated the discussion of greenhouse gases.” Methane and other short-lived gases need more attention. Methane “is 80 times more potent at trapping heat than carbon dioxide for 20 years after it is released, and 20 times more potent over 100 years.” Reducing methane leaks would not only be good for the environment, it would also boost energy self sufficiency. In the U.S. alone, 6 million homes could be powered by the methane that is currently “lost through wells and leaky pipes.”
Tags: CO2, Energy, Environment, Greenhouse gases, Methane, Self sufficiency, Short-lived gases, U.S.
Chicago Tribune (January 14)
“Each of the attacks in Paris that killed 17 people last week was an atrocity, an affront to freedom and an act of terrorism.” Still, this is unlikely to mark “the beginning of a rash of extremist violence in the West.” Since 9/11, “the danger posed by Islamic militants” has been chronically overestimated. Some of this is due to human nature. We “worry too much about dramatic, unusual dangers, like terrorism and Ebola, and too little about commonplace ones.” But there is also “a giant public-private network that has a stake in stoking these fears.”
Tags: 9/11, Atrocity, Attacks, Danger, Ebola, Extremists, Fear, Militants, Paris, Terrorism, Violence
Financial Times (January 13)
“Watch Japan” in the next year to find out more about the inevitability of Larry Summer’s secular stagnation thesis. “Virtually all western economies have seen wages stagnate or fall in recent years.” If Japan, “the world champion of secular stagnation,” succeeds in raising household incomes, this will present the hope that other developed nations can also escape the grip of secular stagnation.
New York Times (January 12)
“Hands down, 2014 was the best year for the labor market since the Great Recession hit in late 2007.” Nevertheless, the “recent progress does not so much point a way forward as highlight weaknesses that need to be corrected and risks that need to be avoided in order not to backslide.” Job growth has yet to catch up with population growth, and continues to be concentrated in the lowest paying areas.
Tags: 2014, Backslide, Great Recession, Job growth, Labor market, Pay, Population, U.S.
The Economist (January 10)
“North Korea’s strange juggling act is becoming ever more precarious. The hubbub over The Interview has attracted unwanted attention. “Just because Mr Kim runs a paranoid, delusional despotism, does not mean that the outside world is not out to get him.” In fact, it increasingly seems “the comforting calculation for North Korea’s regime—that, painful though its existence is to its people and the outside world, its collapse would be worse—may not hold for ever in Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo and Washington.”
Tags: Beijing, Collapse, Delusional, Despotism, Kim, North Korea, Paranoid, Regime, Seoul, The Interview, Tokyo, Washington
