Markets Insider (September 19)
“US homebuilders are feeling less confident about the housing market as the average mortgage rate continues to linger above 7% and box out prospective buyers.” The latest sentiment index from the National Association of Home Builders “dipped into negative territory for the first time since April. The index dropped five points to 45, following a six-point drop in August.” Homebuilders are also facing challenges “due to shortages of construction workers and buildable lots…. Rising home insurance costs and the lack of insurance availability in some regions like Florida are also not helping the situation.”
New York Times (September 18)
“Children born today will very likely live to see the end of global population growth.” Estimates range from the 2060s to 2080s, but “all of the predictions agree on one thing: We peak soon. And then we shrink. Humanity will not reach a plateau and then stabilize. It will begin an unprecedented decline.” It’s not too soon “to start talking about what this means. “Waiting until the population peaks to ask how to respond to depopulation would be as imprudent as waiting until the world starts to run out of fossil fuels to begin responding to climate change.”
Tags: 2060s, 2080s, Children, Depopulation, Fossil fuels, Global, Humanity, Peak, Population growth, Response, Shrink, Unprecedented decline
BBC (September 17)
“The sea-ice surrounding Antarctica is well below any previous recorded winter level, satellite data shows, a worrying new benchmark for a region that once seemed resistant to global warming.” Antarctic sea ice “now measures less than 17 million sq km – that is 1.5 million sq km of sea-ice less than the September average, and well below previous winter record lows.” The impact could be profound. “Without its ice cooling the planet, Antarctica could transform from Earth’s refrigerator to a radiator.”
Tags: Radiator
South China Morning Post (September 16)
“The European Union is scrambling to answer SOS calls from its hi-tech industries to fend off the challenge of China’s manufacturing juggernaut. From electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels to wind turbines and hi-tech batteries, European businesses say they are being eaten alive by Chinese imports sold well below market rates.”
Tags: Batteries, Challenge, China, EU, EVs, Hi-tech, Imports, Manufacturing juggernaut, Market rates, Scrambling, Solar panels, SOS, Wind turbines
Financial Times (September 15)
Internal combustion engines “are on their way out,” while sales of EVs “are set to increase worldwide from about 10mn in 2022 to about 14mn in 2023, or 18 per cent of all cars sold.” This partly explains legacy carmakers low valuations, but the switch also lowers barriers to entry. “Chinese imports already account for about 15 per cent of EVs sold on the continent,” with Chinese automakers hoping to seize more of “a $130bn revenue opportunity by 2030.”
Tags: $130bn, Barriers to entry, China, EVs, Ice, Imports, Legacy carmakers, Opportunity, Revenue, Sales, Valuations
Bloomberg (September 15)
“China’s economy picked up steam in August as a summer travel boom and a heftier stimulus push boosted consumer spending and factory output, adding to nascent signs of stabilization…. Optimism is slowly building among some investors that Beijing’s recent efforts to boost the economy and financial markets are starting to bear fruit. Even so, it’s early days — and a single month of data isn’t enough to confirm a sustained recovery trajectory.”
Tags: August, China, Consumer spending, Economy, Factory output, Investors, Nascent, Optimism, Stabilization, Stimulus, Travel boom
Investment Week (September 12)
“Annual growth in employees’ average total pay, including bonuses, was 8.5%; which was boosted by the NHS and Civil Service one-off payments made in June and July. Due to the strong momentum in wage growth, the Bank of England is expected to push ahead with a 25 basis point interest rate rise at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting later this month.”
Tags: Annual growth, BOE, Bonuses, Civil Service, Employees, Interest rate, Momentum, MPC, NHS, Rise, Strong, Total pay, Wage growth
Washington Post (September 12)
“After decades of relying on the U.S. security umbrella, many European policymakers are aware that an investment in Ukraine’s security is a down payment on their own. Their efforts are accelerating, but not fast enough to negate the potentially catastrophic fallout of a U.S. withdrawal.”
Tags: Accelerating, Catastrophic, Europe, Fallout, Investment, Policymakers, Relying, Security, Security umbrella, U.S., U.S. withdrawal, Ukraine
Wall Street Journal (September 11)
“For every American employed making steel or aluminum in 2018, 36 were employed by firms that used steel or aluminum as inputs. By raising the prices of these metals, Mr. Trump’s tariffs destroyed far more manufacturing jobs than they created. Overall manufacturing employment fell in each of the four quarters of 2019…. Under Mr. Trump’s protectionist policy, total manufacturing output was 2% lower by the start of the pandemic than it was when he raised tariffs.”
Tags: 2018, Aluminum, Destroyed, Employment, Fell, Inputs, Jobs, Manufacturing, Metals, Output, Pandemic, Prices, Protectionist policy, Steel, Tariffs, Trump
Irish Times (September 10)
Some are hoping government stimulus will jumpstart the Chinese economy. “The more likely scenario is continued weak growth.” What remains to be seen is “is how quickly the government will shift away from stimulus measures to a faster fundamental overhaul of its growth strategy.” China needs to tackle “more persistent and structural growth challenges,” which have resulted from “an economic strategy that has historically over-relied on real estate, high local debt, inefficient state-owned enterprises, lower-end manufacturing, and domestic consumer internet platforms.”
Tags: Challenges, China, Economy, Government, Growth strategy, Inefficient, Jumpstart, Manufacturing, Overhaul, Persistent, Real estate, State-owned enterprises, Stimulus, Structural, Weak
