Bankrate (October 10)
“Recession odds between now and September 2024 have dropped to 46 percent, according to experts’ average forecast in Bankrate’s latest quarterly survey of economists. Those probabilities are still close to a coin flip, but they’re down from an average forecast of 59 percent just last quarter. They’re also the lowest odds since the first quarter of 2022.”
Tags: 2022, 2024, 46%, Economists, Experts, Forecast, Lowest, Odds, Probabilities, Quarterly survey, Recession
Wall Street Journal (October 9)
“Investors worried about the recent pullback in stocks are counting on the coming earnings season to give them something to get excited about. For much of 2023, U.S. stocks roared higher despite lackluster corporate profits. But an accelerating selloff in bonds has pushed longer-term yields near their highest levels in more than a decade, denting enthusiasm for stocks.”
Tags: 2023, Bonds, Earnings season, Investors, Lackluster, Profits, Pullback, Selloff, Stocks, U.S., Worried, Yields
The Guardian (October 8)
“Sport and politics often mix. But authoritarian regimes are clearly laundering their reputations through control of global games.” On one hand, “the ruthless advance of commercial interests” may seem “like progress,” but “realpolitik can’t be overlooked. Respecting different cultures does not mean abuse is condoned. The lure of the arena ought not excuse a lack of moral responsibility.”
Tags: Abuse, Authoritarian regimes, Commercial interests, Control, Cultures, Global games, Laundering, Politics, Progress, Realpolitik, Reputations, Respect, Ruthless, Sport
Reuters (October 6)
“It’s getting harder for China Inc to go global, and tougher for global financial advisors to take on the rapidly shrinking pool of related mandates.” Concerns over spying cannot be squelched. Alibaba provides the latest example. “Belgium’s intelligence service on Thursday confirmed it is scrutinising the tech behemoth’s European logistics hub just days after its courier unit Cainiao filed to go public in Hong Kong.” Chinese companies can expect “rising political risks… as they expand overseas. And that, in turn, might make bankers more cautious when taking on deals.”
Tags: Alibaba, Bankers, Belgium, Cainiao, China Inc., Concerns, Financial advisors, Hong Kong, Logistics hub, Mandates, Political risks, Scrutinising, Shrinking pool, Spying
Financial Times (October 5)
“Japan’s demographics — for all the socio-economic hand-wringing they cause — are now arguably the biggest ‘buy’ signal the country has sent for decades…. In several critical areas, Japan’s demographics are aligned to work strongly in favour of companies and investors.” One of these stems from “from labour shortages and the profound psychological difference they make to corporations’ ability to restructure.” This will enable corporations to “divest everything non-core and focus instead on what they are best at.”
Tags: Buy signal, Companies, Demographics, Divest, Hand-wringing, Investors, Japan, Labour shortages, Non-core, Psychological, Restructure, Socio-economic
The Economist (October 5)
If you add all the various signs up, “it becomes clear just how systematically the presumption of open markets and limited government has been left in the dust.” Free trade and other “classical liberal values are not only unpopular, they are increasingly absent from political debate.” In Washington DC, “you will be scoffed at as hopelessly naïve” for advocating free trade and, “in the emerging world, you will be painted as a neocolonial relic from the era when the West knew best.”
Tags: Absent, Emerging world, Free trade, Liberal values, Limited government, Neocolonial, Open markets, Political debate, Presumption, Unpopular, Washington
Bloomberg (October 3)
“Global funds further trimmed their Chinese stock holdings in September, extending a relentless selloff and lowering their average position in the country to the lowest level since 2020,” as “outflows surpassed the $3 billion level for a second consecutive month.” The MSCI China Index has now slumped more than 11% in 2023 and is “ on track for a third straight year of losses, which would mark its worst losing streak in two decades.”
Tags: $3 billion, 2020, 2023, China, Global funds, Losing streak, MSCI China Index, Outflows, Selloff, September, Slumped, Stock holdings
Wall Street Journal (October 2)
“Certain spending habits developed during the pandemic—increased purchasing for home improvements and workout equipment, for instance—have waned as part of an expected normalization postpandemic. Other shopping patterns from the last few years, meanwhile, are sticking. Still unknown is what the new normal in spending will look like, according to finance executives, analysts and economists.”
Tags: Analysts, Economists, Finance, Home improvements, New normal, Normalization, Pandemic, Postpandemic, Purchasing, Shopping patterns, Spending habits, Workout equipment
Reuters (October 2)
“Tensions between the West and China are rising, from tit-for-tat trade tariffs to tech rivalry and spying allegations. The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing’s determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. That could help keep inflation and interest rates elevated. Still, there are gains for emerging nations and tech giants on the right side of the power battle.”
Tags: China, Dependence, Emerging nations, Fraying, Global markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Ramifications, Rising, Spying, Supply chains, Tech rivalry, Tensions, Tit-for-tat, Trade tariffs, West
Washington Post (October 1)
“Offices in many of the world’s major cities are struggling to find workers to occupy them.” In contrast, during 2023 “Tokyo will add some 1.26 million square meters… of new office space, with little trouble occupying it…. Foreign investors, some of whom are dumping properties overseas, are snapping up buildings.” While Tokyo’s post-COVID recovery “has been more circuitous…it may be more complete than global peers.”
Tags: 2023, Buildings, Circuitous, Foreign investors, Major cities, Office space, Overseas, Post-Covid, Properties, Recovery, Struggling, Tokyo, Workers
