Bloomberg (September 19)
“For the first time since at least the 1990s, China hasn’t bought any US soybeans at the start of the export season, a sign that Beijing is once again using agriculture as leverage in its trade fight with Washington.” In 2024, the US supplied “a fifth of China’s soybean imports, worth more than $12 billion, and accounting for over half of total US soy export value.” This year, “US farmers, flush with bumper harvests, are coping with prices near the lowest levels in years.”
Tags: $12 billion, 1990s, 2024, Agriculture, Bumper harvests, China, Export season, Leverage, Prices, Soybeans, Trade fight, U.S., Washington
Trader’s Magazine (September 18)
“Activity outside traditional market hours is accelerating, driven by retail investors who expect flexibility, immediacy, and access to actionable data whenever they choose to engage.” Pre-market trading (4:00 – 9:30 AM) and post-market trading (8:00 PM– 4:00 AM) currently account “for approximately 11% of total daily volume, with more than 1.7 billion shares traded outside of the traditional session. That’s more than double the volume seen in early 2019.”
Tags: Access, Actionable data, Activity, Daily volume, Flexibility, Immediacy, Post-market, Pre-market, Retail investors, Shares, Trading, Traditional market hours
Wall Street Journal (September 17)
“Industrial production in the eurozone returned to growth in July, a reflection of resilience as U.S. tariffs threaten to crimp demand.” Monthly “output edged up 0.3%… after a 0.6% slump in June.” The July “increase was driven by a strong 1.5% upswing in production in Germany.” While the tariff threat remains, “the eurozone’s industry has so far proved relatively resilient, having grown in two of the four months since President Trump’s announcement of levies on global trading partners in early April.”
Tags: 0.3%, Demand, eurozone, Germany, Growth, Industrial production, July, Levies, Resilience, Threat, Trading partners, Trump, U.S. tariffs, Upswing
New York Times (September 16)
“While other countries have scrambled to meet President Trump’s demands to strike deals for reduced tariffs, China has kept to its own timetable.” The costly price has been a 15% drop in “China’s exports to the United States… so far this year.” China has successfully offset this with surging exports to other countries, but robust exports are “masking weakness in other parts of its economy. A persistent real estate downturn has wrecked [sic] havoc on the economy. Consumers are spending less, while joblessness among young people remains a major problem. China is also dealing with a stubborn deflationary spiral, spurred by overproduction in key industries and price wars.” Still, given its degree of media control, the Chinese government does not appear anxious about negotiating a trade deal with the U.S.
Tags: China, Consumers, Deals, Deflationary spiral, Demands, Downturn, Economy, Exports, Havoc, Joblessness, Overproduction, Price wars, Real estate, Spending, Surging, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Weakness
Futurism (September 14)
AI hallucinations are “a major problem plaguing the entire industry, greatly undercutting the usefulness of the tech.” The problem appears to be “getting worse as AI models get more capable.” Some experts argue there is no way around the problem as “hallucinations are intrinsic to the tech itself” and that large language models (LLMs) have hit their limits. However, OpenAI believes it has stumbled on the problem and a relatively easy fix. Its researchers posit that LLMs “hallucinate because when they’re being created, they’re incentivized to guess rather than admit they simply don’t know the answer,” as conventional scoring is binary, which rewards correct guesses and penalizes honest admissions of uncertainty. Instead, they believe you can “penalize confident errors more than you penalize uncertainty, and give partial credit for appropriate expressions of uncertainty.”
Tags: AI, AI models, Binary, Capable, Conventional, Experts, Guess, Hallucinations, Incentivized, Intrinsic, LLMs, Researchers, Rewards, Scoring, Tech, Undercutting, Usefulness
Bloomberg (September 13)
“President Donald Trump’s most concrete step to rein in unprecedented US budget deficits — sweeping tariff hikes — faces the danger of a legal reversal that would put the nation’s finances on an even shakier footing.” While expert opinion is somewhat divided on the rationale for tariffs, “few disagree that tariff hikes are indeed generating a new stream of cash for the Treasury,” a stream that could disappear with the impending Supreme Court decision, placing “Trump’s deficit plan at risk.”
Tags: Budget deficits, Danger, Decision, Expert, Finances, Legal reversal, Opinion, Rationale, Risk, Shakier, Supreme Court, Tariff hikes, Treasury, Trump, U.S., Unprecedented
Investment Week (September 12)
“Over the summer, the FTSE 100, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Japan’s main equity indices enjoyed record highs. Usually, you would think that this was great news…. But, instead, investors are pouring out of funds, as the background noise ratchets up ever higher.” Investor confidence has tumbled “across all global markets, with the biggest hit coming in North America.”
Tags: Confidence, Equity indices, FTSE 100, Funds, Global markets, Investors, Japan, Nasdaq, Noise, North America, S&P 500, Tumbled
Washington Post (September 11)
“For the Fed itself, however, we can offer no easy answer to the quandary it’s facing.” Their upcoming rate decision is perilous. “It might seem obvious that the Fed should choose employment over inflation, since unemployment is so brutal on the people who suffer it…. But the post-pandemic recovery demonstrated that high inflation also creates a lot of suffering.”
Tags: Brutal, Employment, Fed, High inflation, Perilous, Post-pandemic, Quandary, Rate, Recovery
Barron’s (September 11)
“With the spectacle of his “once-a-decade military parade,” Chinese President Xi Jinping “projected a China that is no longer willing to accept America’s vision of the world. Xi is orchestrating a new global order—one that won’t be confined to its military might.” China, as well as Russia, now “vie to dominate in energy” and “Trump is handing them the win.” The president must realize that “energy, economic, and national security are inseparable. To treat energy policy as a political weapon is to weaken the foundation of security itself.”
Tags: Political weapon
Wall Street Journal (September 10)
“South Korea is at a crossroads, but every direction seems to lead to a dead end. Just as the world wakes up from the decadeslong daydream of North Korean denuclearization, the U.S.—South Korea’s longtime defense partner—has grown unreliable.” A poll conducted by the Korean Herald “found 60% of South Koreans don’t trust the U.S. to use its nuclear weapons to protect Seoul from a North Korean attack.” The lack of confidence in its “ally may convince Seoul that there’s no other way to deter Kim Jong Un” than by procuring nuclear weapons of its own.
Tags: Ally, Crossroads, Daydream, Dead end, Defense, Denuclearization, Kim, Korean Herald, North Korea, Nuclear weapons, Partner, Protect, Seoul, South Korea, Trust, U.S., Unreliable
