New York Times (April 7)
“Greece cannot count on Russia to ride to its financial rescue. The sharp drop in oil prices and, to a lesser extent, Western sanctions have damaged the Russian economy and limited Mr. Putin’s ability to dole out aid to other countries.” The Greeks can, however, be sure that Putin will try to exploit any chinks in the EU’s armor. “Mr. Tsipras should be careful not to let himself be used to undermine European unity.”
Tags: Economy, EU, Financial rescue, Greece, Oil prices, Putin, Russia, Tsipras, Unity, Western sanctions
The Economist (March 7)
“Twenty-five years after the Soviet collapse, the world is entering a new nuclear age. Nuclear strategy has become a cockpit of rogue regimes and regional foes jostling with the five original nuclear-weapons powers (America, Britain, France, China and Russia), whose own dealings are infected by suspicion and rivalry.” The new nuclear age is far more unstable. “During much of the cold war the two superpowers, anxious to avoid Armageddon, were willing to tolerate the status quo. Today the ground is shifting under everyone’s feet.”
Tags: Armageddon, China, Cold war, France, Nuclear age, Regional foes, Rivalry, Rogue regimes, Russia, Strategy, Superpowers, Suspicion, U.S., UK
Washington Post (February 22)
“There is a danger that as other pressing concerns about North Korea accumulate — nuclear weapons, missiles, cyberattacks — the world will lose interest in the human rights disaster.” Ideally, “North Korea’s leaders should be held accountable” and referred “to the International Criminal Court for investigation of crimes against humanity.” At present, however, a Security Council referral looks doomed to veto by China or Russia. For the time being, the UN must continue “to investigate human rights abuses in North Korea, with an eye toward identifying who in the regime’s leadership is responsible for the horrors so that they can eventually be held to account.”
Tags: Abuses, Accountable, China, Crimes against humanity, Cyberattacks, Disaster, Human rights, International Criminal Court, Investigation, Leaders, Missiles, North Korea, Nuclear weapons, Russia, Security Council, UN, Veto
Los Angeles Times (February 4)
“To say that the truce in eastern Ukraine, where Russia-backed breakaway ‘republics’ are battling the pro-Western Kiev government, isn’t holding is like saying the Titanic sprung a leak. The cease-fire signed in September is a dead letter. There’s a full-blown war afoot.” This does not, however, mean that the U.S. should arm the Ukrainians. “The presumption that Putin will back off once Kiev gets U.S. weaponry is not based on evidence but hope. And hope is not a strategy.”
Washington Post (January 19)
The drop in oil prices is hitting Venezuela, Russia and Iran hard. These “three troublesome nations” rely on energy exports for 68-95% of their external revenue. Venezuela now “appears on the edge of a political chasm. Putin will try to fend off domestic upheaval with more foreign aggression. And Iran will make a fateful choice between forging a lifeline to the United States and Europe and consciously embracing isolation and harsh austerity.”
Tags: Aggression, Austerity, Chasm, Energy, Europe, Exports, Iran, Isolation, Oil prices, Putin, Russia, U.S., Venezuela
Institutional Investor (January 6)
Amid “slowing global growth concerns and plummeting oil,” Russia has become a “cornered bear.” Food shortages and other anecdotal evidence suggest the domestic economy is crumbling and “that the pain is far from over.” Putin’s chances of finding “a solution that can provide economic relief while allowing him to save face” are looking “increasingly slim.”
Tags: Economy, Food shortages, Global growth, Oil, Pain, Putin, Relief, Russia
Bloomberg (January 2)
“Venezuela had a banner year in 2014: the world’s highest misery index (inflation plus unemployment), a fresh recession, and a currency whose black-market value plunged faster than even the Russian ruble…. Unfortunately, President Nicolas Maduro doesn’t seem to have any good ideas — any ideas at all, really — for improving things.”
Tags: Black-market value, Currency, Inflation, Misery index, Nicolas Maduro, Recession, Ruble, Russia, Unemployment, Venezuela
The Economist (December 20)
“A financial crash in Russia; falling oil prices and a strong dollar; a new gold rush in Silicon Valley and a resurgent American economy; weakness in Germany and Japan; tumbling currencies in emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia; an embattled Democrat in the White House…. Add all this up and 2015 seems likely to be bumpy.”
Tags: Brazil, Currencies, Dollar, Economy, Emerging markets, Financial crash, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Oil prices, Russia, Silicon Valley, U.S., White House
Bloomberg (December 18)
Early this year, Kremlin aids advised Vladimir Putin that “Russia was rich enough to withstand the financial repercussions from a possible incursion into Ukraine.” Their advice and the subsequent invasion “now looks like a grave miscalculation. Russia has driven interest rates to punishing levels and spent at least $87 billion, or 17 percent, of its foreign-exchange reserves trying to prevent a collapse in the ruble from spiraling into a panic.
Tags: Advice, Collapse, Foreign-exchange reserves, Interest rates, Kremlin, Miscalculation, Panic, Putin, Ruble, Russia, Ukraine
Washington Post (December 16)
“The drama playing out in Russia on Tuesday was not pretty. The ruble’s exchange rate has collapsed by some 50 percent against the dollar since mid-June, with an accelerating fall in recent days….Russia now faces a full-blown currency crisis.” The crisis, however, did not spring out of nowhere. “For President Vladimir Putin, the crisis is his own doing, a direct outgrowth of a meddlesome adventure into Ukraine.”
Tags: Collapse, Currency crisis, Dollar, Exchange rate, Putin, Ruble, Russia, Ukraine
