Wall Street Journal (October 12)
Japan’s dilemma over whether to proceed with the sales tax increase to 10% “mirrors the dynamics in Europe, where France and Italy recently delayed deficit-reduction plans, fearing that spending cuts could tip their fragile economies back into recession.” With much of the developed world facing aging demographics and similar quandaries, all eyes are on Japan. “In a world haunted by stubbornly slow growth and low inflation, Japan’s clinical trial—whether it ends up cure or toxin—will inform other countries when they reach Japan’s state.”
Tags: Deficit reduction, Demographics, Dilemma, Economies, Europe, France, Growth, Inflation, Italy, Japan, Recession, Sales tax, Spending cuts
Financial Times (August 31)
“The story of Abenomics is far from over–but the typical Japanese household could be forgiven for thinking that all the Bank of Japan had achieved, in pushing down the currency and importing inflation, was another hit to household living standards. Japanese real wages have been falling for most of this year.”
Tags: Abenomics, BOJ, Currency, Household, Inflation, Japan, Living standards, Real wages
The Economist (August 30)
“If Germany, France and Italy cannot find a way to refloat Europe’s economy, the euro may yet be doomed.” With inflation “perilously low” at just 0.4%, “the euro zone stands (or wobbles) in stark contrast with America and Britain, whose economies are enjoying sustained growth.”
Institutional Investor (August 12)
“Disappointing sentiment data and continued conflict in eastern Ukraine” are leading to investor apprehension. “Slowing production levels and low inflation appear to leave the door open for European Central Bank intervention but political support for action from European Union leaders is still far from consensus. With a strong correlation between primary global equity indexes that has been noted by multiple strategists in recent sessions, deteriorating investor confidence in Europe is likely to cast a shadow over U.S. equity markets in the near term.”
Tags: Confidence, Conflict, Consensus, Disappointing, ECB, Equities, EU, Inflation, Intervention, Investors, Production, Sentiment, U.S., Ukraine
Institutional Investor (July 23)
However you look at it, “positive inflation momentum is apparent” in the U.S. From the top down, unemployment has fallen. As slack lessens, “we may begin to see signs of this tightening appear in the form of wage growth.” And from the bottom up, there were “multiple factors that pushed inflation lower over the past 12 to 18 months: predominantly, disinflation from medical and core goods components.” But these were driven by unique events like the sequester and the strength of the U.S. dollar. “Neither the medical nor the core goods component is likely to be a drag on inflation going forward.”
Tags: Core goods, Disinflation, Dollar, Drag, Inflation, Medical, Momentum, Sequester, Slack, Tightening, U.S., Unemployment, Wage growth
Institutional Investor (June 19)
“Income potential and low interest rates are fueling pension fund interest in commercial real estate.” Fund managers struggling to find “investments that can match long-term liabilities and fight inflation” are finding “some measure of calm” in real estate.
Tags: Fund managers, Income, Inflation, Interest rates, Investments, Liabilities, Pension funds, Potential, Real estate
Investment Week (May 19)
At just 3.6%, Japan’s unemployment rate is extremely low and this should promote inflation. “Labour shortages have already driven wages higher for part-time workers. Adding to this, the demand to provide new infrastructure for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo and the need to replace equipment should also serve to further stimulate the economy.” The OECD has forecast that “only Japan, New Zealand, and Israel are expected to grow faster than their previously forecasted GDPs in 2014.”
Tags: 2020 Olympics, Economy, Equipment, GDP, Inflation, Infrastructure, Israel, Japan, Labor, New Zealand, OECD, Shortage, Tokyo, Unemployment rate, Wages, Workers
Financial Times (March 27)
Abenomics “has been judged a qualified success but there are concerns the effort will peter out.” The upcoming consumption tax increase ranks high among these and an even more fundamental concern, that higher inflation would make the government’s debt burden unsustainable, remains untested. If the latter holds true, however, “it is precisely when Abenomics reaches its stated aim that it will begin to unravel.”
Tags: Abenomics, Concerns, Consumption tax, Government, Inflation, Success, Unsustainable
Wall Street Journal (February 16, 2014)
“It’s getting ugly in Venezuela.” The economy is crumbling with inflation north of 56% and wide-spread shortages, which have caused some factories to close. Amid growing protests, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is consolidating power using deaths at recent protests “to justify a government crackdown on growing civic unrest directed at his leadership and a deteriorating economy.” A natural “strongman,” President Maduro is now following “the Cuban model.”
Tags: Crackdown, Cuba, Economy, Inflation, Leadership, Nicolas Maduro, Protests, Shortages, Strongman, Unrest, Venezuela
Financial Times (February 6, 2014)
“In an era when much of the world is worried about the possibility of drifting into Japanese-style deflation, one country has precisely the opposite problem: unbridled inflation.” Over the last 5 years, India’s consumer prices have been rising annually by close to 10%. “That is no small matter for the multitudinous poor, for whom escalating food prices can summon the spectre of hunger. Nor does it do much for macroeconomic stability, which India badly needs in this year of tapering and tricky political transition.” Fortunately, new central bank governor Raghuram Rajan looks “up to the task.” With his tough policies, he may prove the Paul Volcker of India.
Tags: Central bank, CPI, Deflation, Food, Governor, Hunger, India, Inflation, Japan, Macroeconomics, Paul Volker, Poor, Raghuram Rajan, Stability
